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  • #297,701
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:24pm Sep 28, 2010 5:24pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I reckon if a newbie stop reading all these articles and books and just look at this as a game and record what went wrong and what you could have done differently and interpret that he have come a long way... Just do it with micro lots, nothing to loose for trying

Zen in market wizards are trading by just guessing when we are going up and down and he has made millions...
I am sure that this trader is not just guessing. The best traders have a gut feeling for the market.

Take me for example.... I have a gut feeling that 90% of trades I enter will lose money and they do [/quote]
if that is the case then why should we take your advice...LOL
  • #297,702
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:25pm Sep 28, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting digictron
I am sure that this trader is not just guessing. The best traders have a gut feeling for the market.

Take me for example.... I have a gut feeling that 90% of trades I enter will lose money and they do



if that is the case then why should we take your advice...LOL[/quote]
  • #297,703
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:27pm Sep 28, 2010 5:27pm
Quoting Larseg
LONDON -- The Bank of Japan will be back in the markets sooner than we think.
... the yen's safe-haven role will only expand as investors move out of the euro as well as the dollar.
BoJ sells the JPY, buying the USD. It needs to do something with all those USD so it turns around and buys US treasuries. Big flood of BoJ's USD's on the treasury auction drives down yields. Yields too low, risk-averse investors shun the USD and seek safe haven in the JPY. Ergo, intervention is futile.

Anyway - that's how the song goes, not sure if I like it....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #297,704
  • Sep 28, 2010 5:32pm Sep 28, 2010 5:32pm
Propping up artificially the dollar is just throwing gasoline on the fire for BOJ
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #297,705
  • Edited 6:40pm Sep 28, 2010 5:57pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I reckon if a newbie stop reading all these articles and books and just look at this as a game and record what went wrong and what you could have done differently and interpret that he have come a long way... Just do it with micro lots, nothing to loose for trying

Zen in market wizards are trading by just guessing when we are going up and down and he has made millions...

I am sure that this trader is not just guessing. The best traders have a gut feeling for the market.

Take me for example.... I have a gut feeling that 90%...

You know what I meant but I understand that your skill is not guessing, I should have said it differently...


-=-=-=-=-=- 2nd post -=-=-=-=

The Australian market has received generally positive leads from offshore trading overnight.
This morning on the Sydney Futures Exchange, the December share price index futures contract was 17 points higher at 4715 points. Yesterday, the major local inidices finished fractionally lower.
Overnight, the dollar touched yet another fresh two-year high as the US dollar slipped against the euro.
What you need to know

 

  1. The SPI was 17 points higher at 4715
  2. The Australian dollar jumped to 96.78 US cents
  3. In the US, the S&P500 rose 5.54 points to 1147.70
  4. In Europe, the FTSE rose 5.02 points to 5,578.44
  5. Gold rose $US9.70 an ounce to $US1308.30
  6. Oil was down 34 US cents a barrel to $US76.18
  7. The Reuters Jefferies CRB Index rose 0.07%



Some strong JPY news in 1 hour = 10 minutes before ASX bourse opens... can be a tricky trade for eurusd... I reckon I will enter between the news and the open...

  • #297,706
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:03pm Sep 28, 2010 6:03pm
Quoting The Fool
BoJ sells the JPY, buying the USD. It needs to do something with all those USD so it turns around and buys US treasuries. Big flood of BoJ's USD's on the treasury auction drives down yields. Yields too low, risk-averse investors shun the USD and seek safe haven in the JPY. Ergo, intervention is futile.

Anyway - that's how the song goes, not sure if I like it....

I hear you and I concur, but I have loaded up with usdjpy this morning with a wide SL just because it seems like a good probability trade

But what I wonder about is how they are going to attack this again or why they don't sell it down below 80.00 for then buying back...
To really get a good shakeout....
so traders are happy that it went down...

Sort of speeding up the process.... Hard probably because the funnymentals are still around.... Never ending discussion
  • #297,707
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:03pm Sep 28, 2010 6:03pm
[/quote]Some strong JPY news in 1 hour = 10 minutes before ASX bourse opens... can be a tricky trade for eurusd... I reckon I will enter between the news and the open...[/quote]

What effect does positve JPY data have on the EURUSD pair?
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #297,708
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:04pm Sep 28, 2010 6:04pm
61.8 fib retrace of 2009's high 1.51** and 2010's low 1.18**...
also..
can be seen in my chart two interesting andrew's pitchforks.. their meeting is @ 1.39 area...

i see eu touching 1.39 area in the next 8-9 days trading days ( until october,11)
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LOL
  • #297,709
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:13pm Sep 28, 2010 6:13pm
Some strong JPY news in 1 hour = 10 minutes before ASX bourse opens... can be a tricky trade for eurusd... I reckon I will enter between the news and the open...[/quote]

What effect does positve JPY data have on the EURUSD pair?[/quote]


Good question, lately they have been more correlated than usual...
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  • #297,710
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:18pm Sep 28, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
it's just a gut-feeling, but there could very well be reason that it wasn't touched at the end of a trading day. the same happened to 1.35. i bounced once and was then broken with sheer force.

reasons like this...

If breaking up we'll see 3670/80 as a hard nut. top of channel is 3750/75.

Honestly this thing will turn soon. Bull sentiment is higher than it was @ 5140, in fact over 95% now.


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  • #297,711
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:21pm Sep 28, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting karimfx
61.8 fib retrace of 2009's high 1.51** and 2010's low 1.18**...
also..
can be seen in my chart two interesting andrew's pitchforks.. their meeting is @ 1.39 area...

i see eu touching 1.39 area in the next 8-9 days trading days ( until october,11)

agree, 1.4 is a guaranTee
  • #297,712
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:27pm Sep 28, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting karimfx
61.8 fib retrace of 2009's high 1.51** and 2010's low 1.18**...
also..
can be seen in my chart two
  • #297,713
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:36pm Sep 28, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting Larseg
... but I have loaded up with usdjpy this morning with a wide SL just because it seems like a good probability trade

.... Never ending discussion
ya I learned my lesson trying to fish SNB intervention breakouts. You can go through a lot of bait, I mean money. The Japanese are different, though. You don't want to lose face - you already stepped in before, what, now you're gonna give up? What, are you chicken? (Note I did not say yellow.)

Lose face or lose your ass - tough choice.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #297,714
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:38pm Sep 28, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting enterfx
reasons like this...

If breaking up we'll see 3670/80 as a hard nut. top of channel is 3750/75.

Honestly this thing will turn soon. Bull sentiment is higher than it was @ 5140, in fact over 95% now.


Attachment
thanks a lot, i'm neglecting trendlines these days, which seems to punish me right now.
so you say, there are too many bulls in the market and that number has to be reduced?
  • #297,715
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:47pm Sep 28, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting The Fool
ya I learned my lesson trying to fish SNB intervention breakouts. You can go through a lot of bait, I mean money. The Japanese are different, though. You don't want to lose face - you already stepped in before, what, now you're gonna give up? What, are you chicken? (Note I did not say yellow.)

Lose face or lose your ass - tough choice.

Hehe bait...

But you have a good point there, Kan is not keen on loosing face I reckon...
What is really weird is that they haven't sold more yen just after usdjpy pullback... That could have had a trend reversal effect for a longer time I reckon...
  • #297,716
  • Sep 28, 2010 6:57pm Sep 28, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting mercy seat
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-09-28_Forex Focus (09h15 CET) Bank Of Japan Will Have To Be Back Soon.pdf (11.4 KB)


Forex Focus: Bank Of Japan Will Have To Be Back Soon
28 Sep 2010, 09:15 CET

By Nicholas Hastings
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The Bank of Japan will be back in the markets sooner than we think.



;-)



ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors
29 Sep 2010, 01:35

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)



http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-09-29_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (01h35 CET) 001.pdf (14.8 KB)



EUR/USD - to consolidate with bullish bias. Pair underpinned by negative USD sentiment, ECB's Stark saying ECB would not renew some of non-standard measures when these mature in 4Q10. But euro sentiment dented by Spanish newspaper Expansion report analysts expect Moody's to cut Spain's rating, while S&P analyst said on Irish radio that Anglo Irish Bank's rating could be cut again if its recapitalization costs exceed EUR35 billion. Data focus: 0810 GMT euro-zone September retail PMI, 0900 GMT EU September business & consumer surveys. EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought, suggesting sideways or higher EUR/USD trading near-term. Resistance at 1.3595 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.3691 (April 12 reaction high), then 1.3817 (March 17 reaction high), 1.3839 (Feb. 9 reaction high) and 1.3895 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of decline from Nov. 25 high of 1.5144 to June 7 low of 1.1875). Support at 1.3440 (hourly chart); breach would expose downside to 1.3380 (yesterday's low), then 1.3284 (Friday's low), 1.3245 (Sept. 22 low) and 1.3055 (Sept. 21 low).



USD/JPY - to consolidate with bearish bias amid broad-based USD weakness (ICE spot dollar index last 78.96 vs Monday's 79.338 settlement) as expectations of further quantitative measures from U.S. Federal Reserve increase after U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence index fell sharply in September to 48.5 from revised 53.2 in August, far worse than 52.0 expected. USD/JPY also undermined by Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese fiscal half-year repatriation flows. But USD/JPY losses tempered by fear of further Japan MOF JPY-selling intervention, USD demand for import settlements, toushin demand, JPY-funded trades on positive risk sentiment as Wall Street posted modest gains overnight on expectations of more Fed stimulus. Yen crosses vulnerable to any surprises from Chinese September manufacturing PMI data due today. Other data focus: 2350 GMT Japan provisional trade statistics for 1st 10 days of September, Japan 3Q Tankan survey of enterprises, 1415 GMT Fed's Kocherlakota speaks, 1620 GMT Fed's Plosser speech, 1715 GMT Fed's Rosengren speaks. USD/JPY daily chart negative-biased as MACD & stochastics bearish. Support at 83.68 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 82.87 (15-year low set Sept. 15), then psychological round-numbered levels from 82.00 down to 80.00, and 79.75 (record low set April 19, 1995). Resistance at 84.34-39 band (yesterday's high-Monday's high); breach would temper near-term negative outlook, exposing upside to 84.72 (hourly chart), then 85.38 (Friday's high, matching 55-day moving average), 85.77 (Sept. 21 high) and 85.93 (Sept. 16 high).



GBP/USD - to range-trade. Pair supported by weak USD sentiment; IMF's endorsement of UK government's deficit reduction plans, confirmation of UK 2Q GDP at +1.2%, sharp reduction in UK 2Q current account deficit to GBP7.4 billion (vs forecast for GBP9.7 billion deficit) from revised GBP11.3 billion in 1Q, CBI reporting UK October retail sales expectations at 9-year high of +47 & September retail sales balance at 6-year high of +49 (vs +23 forecast). But GBP/USD gains tempered by BOE's Posen saying he sees "clear" case for undertaking more asset purchases in UK to avoid Japan-style protracted period of economic underperformance; lingering concerns over negative impact of fiscal tightening on UK economy. Data focus: 0830 GMT August UK BOE lending to individuals, UK August BSA savings & mortgage lending. GBP/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at overbought; high-wave candlestick pattern completed yesterday. Resistance at 1.5895 (yesterday's high), then at 1.5910 (Aug. 10 high); breach would expose upside to 1.6002 (Aug. 6 top), then 1.6069 (Feb. 3 high) and 1.6276 (Jan. 28 high). Support at 1.5717 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5638 (Friday's low), then 1.5600 (Sept. 22 low), 1.5567 (55-day moving average) and 1.5501 (Sept. 21 low).



;-)
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2010-09-29_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (01h35 CET) 001.pdf   15 KB | 421 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #297,717
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:00pm Sep 28, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting The Fool
ya I learned my lesson trying to fish SNB intervention breakouts. You can go through a lot of bait, I mean money. The Japanese are different, though. You don't want to lose face - you already stepped in before, what, now you're gonna give up? What, are you chicken? (Note I did not say yellow.)

Lose face or lose your ass - tough choice.
You're right, to lose face in Japanese society, especially at this high level, would be very a serious issue.....suicide in such situations is not unheard of.

I think that the meetings on the 4th and 5th of Oct could see the BOJ and govt emerge with a united plan of attack.....because they must unite, else any further intervention will fail. Japan has very deep pockets for intervention, much deeper than SNB so they a fair bit different in that they can intervene and make it stick, if they work together.

So, barring any sudden and huge gain in the Yen, I think we are unlikely to see any intervention until after the 4th of next month

5c

Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #297,718
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:01pm Sep 28, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
thanks a lot, i'm neglecting trendlines these days, which seems to punish me right now.
so you say, there are too many bulls in the market and that number has to be reduced?

It could still go on for a while but when it's a heavily crowded trade it will eventually run out of steam. Usually there should be divergence on both the daily and H4 charts indicating a top in progress. so far only H4 has one.

Some interesting reading about sentiments:


Daily Sentiment Index at Extremes: Typical Behavior
www.Trade-Futures.com
In gathering over 18 years of daily sentiment a number of clear patterns have emerged.

They are as follows:
* When the DSI rises to the 85% area or higher the odds of a top are significant
* When the DSI falls to the 15% area or lower, the odds of a bottom are significant
* The longer the DSI remains at a high level, the larger and longer the coming decline is likely to be
* The longer the DSI remains at a low level, the larger and longer the coming rally is likely to be
* The small trader is NOT always wrong at turning points they are USUALLY wrong at EXTREMES
  • #297,719
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:14pm Sep 28, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting enterfx
It could still go on for a while but when it's a heavily crowded trade it will eventually run out of steam. Usually there should be divergence on both the daily and H4 charts indicating a top in progress. so far only H4 has one.

Some interesting reading about sentiments:


Daily Sentiment Index at Extremes: Typical Behavior
www.Trade-Futures.com
In gathering over 18 years of daily sentiment a number of clear patterns have emerged.

They are as follows:
* When...
i checked my brokers statistics... doesn't look too good atm. had to double check.
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Attached Image
  • #297,720
  • Sep 28, 2010 7:25pm Sep 28, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
i checked my brokers statistics... doesn't look too good atm. had to double check.

Interesting to see... I doubt that account for the overall sentiment otherwise it would've dropped like a rock by now.

Here's a snap shot of EWI's chart monday.


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