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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #19,101
  • Sep 27, 2010 11:38am Sep 27, 2010 11:38am
london closed ....

new york on ....

its still wet and cold and drizziling here .... nice cosy night to sleep ... must make a mental note ... " in such a weather ... not much action on usdjpy ... "
cheeky



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  • #19,102
  • Edited 12:36pm Sep 27, 2010 12:19pm | Edited 12:36pm
close up .....



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  • #19,103
  • Sep 27, 2010 1:32pm Sep 27, 2010 1:32pm
stops on your trades, whether you are long or short are incredibly important this week.

with support beneath longs around 8280 or so i agree with the people who are long (am too at 84.41) the R:R of this trade could be huge. I had anticipated a greater surge than there has been for longs, but the traders logs of last week show a huge decline in net JPY shorts (although it is still positive long it has decreased substantially) and i feel that if one more burst of intervention from the JPY government proves more successful these JPY shorts could close their trades and re enter long....

the next 5-10 working day are critical to whether we see sustained trading at the all-time lows or whether there is a significant bounce to change the short-medium term trend.

i don't think technical analysis can be much use at the moment with one BoJ intervention period potentially screwing everyone's in the space of 24hrs - we aren't talking classic trading here where these things may carry some weight. the BoJ won't give a cr*p whether there is fibonacci levels and should they desire have the power to bulldoze right through them...
  • #19,104
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:03pm Sep 27, 2010 3:03pm
Fundamentals have been long for the last 4 weeks- Commercials still are LONG- The retraction in daily charts show that price has reached a sweet spot for reversion, if the support line holds and today's candle closes as a Doji (5 PM EST) as it probably will, we may see the beginning of the much anticipated uptrend- I just wish we could see a little more strength on the USD part
  • #19,105
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:05pm Sep 27, 2010 3:05pm
Looking back to the U/J price history, there was a huge price turn around starting from May 1995 - June 1998 and formed a huge V-shape on the monthly chart.

Does anyone know what fundamental news caused the great price movement in that period? Thanks!
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  • #19,106
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:15pm Sep 27, 2010 3:15pm
I hope you are correct about the long but was wondering about your statement for the commercials are long. Do you mean the Central Banks SSI is long? If so, what are you looking out to determine their position.
Thanks


Quoting moz66fx
Fundamentals have been long for the last 4 weeks- Commercials still are LONG- The retraction in daily charts show that price has reached a sweet spot for reversion, if the support line holds and today's candle closes as a Doji (5 PM EST) as it probably will, we may see the beginning of the much anticipated uptrend- I just wish we could see a little more strength on the USD part
  • #19,107
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:20pm Sep 27, 2010 3:20pm
Been eyeballing UJ during the day and found something very peculiarly:

Upward moves of USDX UJ does nothing or relative weakness.
Downward moves of USDX UJ relative strength.

What does this mean:
If USDX rises, no need to intervene let the market run itself
If USDX drops, need to intervene and somebody does

I know it sounds a little far-sided, but this strange USDX-UJ correlation was so clear today, one would think there is/will be no massive intervention but a continuous one applied only when USDX drops.

Just an observation, but a very strange one and explaining the very slow PA today......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,108
  • Sep 27, 2010 3:52pm Sep 27, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting 13.1 Runner
I hope you are correct about the long but was wondering about your statement for the commercials are long. Do you mean the Central Banks SSI is long? If so, what are you looking out to determine their position.
Thanks
Yes- COT is one of the things I look at that helps in my decision making and my weekly analysis-
  • #19,109
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:03pm Sep 27, 2010 4:03pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Been eyeballing UJ during the day and found something very peculiarly:

Upward moves of USDX UJ does nothing or relative weakness.
Downward moves of USDX UJ relative strength.

What does this mean:
If USDX rises, no need to intervene let the market run itself
If USDX drops, need to intervene and somebody does

I know it sounds a little far-sided, but this strange USDX-UJ correlation was so clear today, one would think there is/will be no massive intervention but a continuous one applied only when USDX drops.

Just an observation,...
except the USDX rose today and we didnt see a rise?
  • #19,110
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:07pm Sep 27, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting jp09
except the USDX rose today and we didnt see a rise?
It fits, presumed policy, do nothing if USDX rises, intervene if it drops, so market decides the correlation between upmoves USDX and UJ
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,111
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:17pm Sep 27, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting USD-Bear
It fits, presumed policy, do nothing if USDX rises, intervene if it drops, so market decides the correlation between upmoves USDX and UJ
interesting idea - will see whether it plays out! i entered a new long earlier this afternoon here with a stop at 8390 - the risk reward here is just getting more and more appealling
  • #19,112
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:21pm Sep 27, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting jp09
interesting idea - will see whether it plays out! i entered a new long earlier this afternoon here with a stop at 8390 - the risk reward here is just getting more and more appealling
If there is something in it, it just will give longs some "artificial" support and BOJ or any other CB hates to do what's most obvious.
The counterpart would be that we reach 90.00 slowly instead of fast
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #19,113
  • Sep 27, 2010 4:26pm Sep 27, 2010 4:26pm
You gotta keep in mind that USD/JPY is a special pair... I've seen that many times in the past... the USD was raising against the JPY but losing value against all other currencies
US Dollar is trash... Get out of that Ponzi scheme !!!
  • #19,114
  • Sep 27, 2010 8:23pm Sep 27, 2010 8:23pm
Will dorrar yen get thumped today ?
Oh yeah baby we are testing the BOJ today...
  • #19,115
  • Sep 27, 2010 8:43pm Sep 27, 2010 8:43pm
wake me up when we get to 83.50 this is like watching paint dry..
  • #19,116
  • Sep 27, 2010 9:01pm Sep 27, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting lasty
wake me up when we get to 83.50 this is like watching paint dry..
You mean 82.50...?
  • #19,117
  • Sep 27, 2010 9:12pm Sep 27, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting pqt
You mean 82.50...?
Yeah thought I would give BOJ a chance to waste some more dollars at 83.50 before we do a merry dance at 82.50
  • #19,118
  • Sep 27, 2010 9:25pm Sep 27, 2010 9:25pm
Quoting lasty
Yeah thought I would give BOJ a chance to waste some more dollars at 83.50 before we do a merry dance at 82.50
I have this certain Image I'm dying to post but Ill wait until we breach 78-76 it'll have more meaning then.
  • #19,119
  • Edited 10:28pm Sep 27, 2010 10:04pm | Edited 10:28pm
Quoting jp09
i don't think technical analysis can be much use at the moment with one BoJ intervention period potentially screwing everyone's in the space of 24hrs - we aren't talking classic trading here where these things may carry some weight. the BoJ won't give a cr*p whether there is fibonacci levels and should they desire have the power to bulldoze right through them...

these thoughts are at the back of my mind too ..

BOJ may intervene at whatever time they fancy too ...

not necessarily this week or next week etc... they may strike anytime ... or they might not intervene at all , the market could have got wiser ... perhaps this non-action itself is an action .. to bring the market to take stock and re-orientate itself ......

need to be on our toes ...

need to be at the right time and at the right place ...

need to be lucky , too ! cheeky
  • #19,120
  • Sep 27, 2010 10:17pm Sep 27, 2010 10:17pm
If the Yen doesn't rapidly appreciate in the next few days, then I doubt that we'll see any intervention before the conference on 4th & 5th October.

But you never know!!....lol.....

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...yen-rises.html
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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