EURUSD

trading and octoberfest...two pairs of shoes

makes you much more relaxed

I have been to the German Oktoberfest...and it is GREAT! However, I live in Kitchener, Ontairo, Canada...formerly known as Berlin.....and we have the Second largest Oktoberfest in the world....next to the motherland. Enjoy the barrels of beer! Ziggy Zaggy Ziggy Zaggy....hoi hoi hoi!!!

Asia Outlook

2250 GMT [Dow Jones] ASIA OUTLOOK:

Regional stock markets likely lifted by solid gains on Wall Street Friday as signs of stabilization in durable goods, housing boosted investors' appetite for risk. In FX markets, traders will remain on the lookout for any intervention from Japanese authorities to weaken JPY; EUR could be biased higher if regional equities track U.S. stocks higher. EUR/USD at 1.3485 vs 1.3493 late NY Friday, EUR/JPY at 133.66 vs 113.70, USD/JPY at 84.29 vs 84.28. On data slate: Japan provisional trade, corporate service price index at 2350 GMT, Taiwan business indicators at 0800 GMT, HK trade at 0830 GMT, BOJ governor Shirakawa speaks. Later there's U.K. Hometrack house prices survey, Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index, Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

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scalping sell 3481, tp 3474....

watch out for EU news today

Have green pips today

you are right. i think, it will down to nearly daily pivot but big picture is "up"

Forget the pips, I want to be over there tapping that! What fun, but no I'm over here trying to make pips instead.

yep.. i still not forget big picture here but still i'm making good pips here

Octoberfest looks like fun, where I live we have the BUD bash every August , people get real crazy, lot of people partying , lol

maybe scalping not suite for you, but we have our own trading style.

i'm a short term trader with bigger picture.

Have a nice day

hopefully is going down for now

ya I like to scalp the 60 min also!

hope is a bad word.......never hope...plan your trade....trade your plan. Period.

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif

2010-09-27_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (01h30 CET) 001.pdf (14.3 KB)



ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors
27 Sep 2010, 01:30

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)


EUR/USD - to consolidate with positive bias. Pair underpinned by weak USD sentiment, EUR demand for long-EUR carry trades on better investor risk appetite, surprise rise in German Ifo business sentiment index to 106.8 in September from 106.7 in August (vs forecast for drop to 106.5). But EUR/USD gains tempered by lingering concerns over economic & fiscal health of some euro-zone nations. Data focus: 0800 GMT August Monetary developments (M3) in euro area. EUR/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish, while stochastics stay elevated at overbought, suggesting sideways or higher EUR/USD trading near-term. Resistance at 1.3510 (50% Fibonacci retracement of decline from Nov. 25 high of 1.5144 to June 7 low of 1.1875); breach would expose upside to 1.3691 (April 12 reaction high), then 1.3817 (March 17 reaction high). Support at 1.3366 (hourly chart), then at 1.3284 (Friday's low); breach would temper near-term negative outlook, exposing upside to 1.3245 (Wednesday's low), then 1.3055 (Tuesday's low), 1.3016 (Sept. 17 low) and 1.2974 (Sept. 16 low).



USD/JPY - to consolidate amid broad-based USD weakness (ICE spot dollar index down 0.77% Friday at 79.395, last at 79.308) as expectations of further quantitative measures from U.S. Federal Reserve were reinforced by Chairman Bernanke late Friday saying he's dissatisfied with course of U.S. recovery, suggesting Fed may downgrade its economic growth forecast at its next meeting on Nov. 3. USD/JPY also undermined by Japan exporter sales. But downside limited by fear of further Japan MOF JPY-selling intervention, higher U.S. Treasury yields, USD demand for import settlements, JPY-funded carry trades amid positive global risk sentiment (VIX fear gauge eased 9.05% to 21.71) as Wall Street posted strong gains Friday (DJIA up 1.86%, Nasdaq up 2.33%) despite big 1.3% drop in U.S. August durable goods orders (vs forecast for 1.0% fall) - investors heartened as July durables revised to 0.7% increase from originally reported 0.4% rise, while U.S. August new home sales came in flat vs +6.9% expected but July sales revised to 7.7% decline from originally reported 12.4% drop. Data focus: 2350 GMT Japan August provisional trade statistics, August corporate service price index, 1230 GMT August Chicago Fed national activity index, 1430 GMT September Texas manufacturing outlook survey, 1600 GMT August Chicago Fed Midwest manufacturing index. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as stochastics falling from overbought but MACD still in bullish mode. Support at 84.04 (61.8% Fibonacci correction of 82.87-85.93 Sept. 15-Sept. 16 advance); breach would expose downside to 82.87 (15-year low set Sept. 15), then psychological round-numbered levels from 82.00 down to 80.00, and 79.75 (record low set April 19, 1995). Resistance at 84.89 (hourly chart), then at 85.38 (Friday's high); breach would target 85.54 (55-day moving average), then 85.77 (Tuesday's high), 85.93 (Sept. 16 high) and 86.39 (Aug. 13 high).



GBP/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Pair underpinned by weak USD sentiment, higher investor risk appetite. But GBP/USD topside limited by UK Hometrack survey showing 0.4% on-month drop in September national house prices for biggest margin of decline since March 2009; lingering concerns over negative impact of fiscal tightening on UK economy. GBP/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought, suggesting sideways or higher GBP/USD trading near-term. Resistance at 1.5910 (Aug. 10 high); breach would expose upside to 1.6002 (Aug. 6 top), then 1.6069 (Feb. 3 high) and 1.6276 (Jan. 28 high). Support at 1.5741 (hourly chart), then at 1.5638 (Friday's low) and 1.5609-1.5600 band (Thursday's low-Wednesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.5501 (Tuesday's low), then 1.5446 (Sept. 15 low), 1.5345 (Sept. 14 low) and 1.5294 (Sept. 7 low).


So ... Experten ... as long as no cross below 3461 ... there should be seen some upside attempts again ... I must go now ... we had our fun in the time between ... meeting with various trading friends looming ...

und tschüss



;-)

[quote=smnaol;4049866]maybe scalping not suite for you, but we have our own trading style.

i'm a short term trader with bigger

So if you are scalping....how do you handle that 12 pip move in a matter of seconds......unless it went with your trade? Just curious.

Not bad, just boring, that's all. You're not saying anything that hasn't been said here and all over the net a million times over.

The fact is, all the majors are in the short bus. (OK, you're a foreigner, so it's like this: the short bus comes in the morning a little later than the regular bus - to take the retarded and otherwise "challenged" kids to the "special" school.)

The fundamentals always apply, but its a bad habit to get involved too much in them, especially if you trade intraday. Sure, Uncle Ben & the FOMC telegraph an impending devaluation of the USD and it will get sold. A bunch of fresh eurozone sovereign debt "news" hits the headlines and the euro might go down. Sounds pretty simple but it might not apply that easily on any given day.

The spot fx market is almost entirely speculative. Its the playground of the largest banks and hedge funds in the world. If one or more of them decide to move the E/U up or down a few hundred pips then they can because they have the liquidity to do so - with or against the fundies flow.

Anyway, if you want to post more pics of Obama shoveling USD notes into a woodstove or whatever, fine, just realize that nobody with half a brain really pays any attention to you after the 10th time you do so.

I was just joking about the pictures of oktoberfest, it looks like fun.

I'm just getting into the market now to look for a trade. The market is too slow to trade even for a scalp for me. I am a short term trader, scalp all day, and do some swing trading. Yes, you must stay in tune with big picture first before any short term move.

I wait for momentum, and then trade patterns for S/R levels and just looking to get 50% of a move.

I don't see any moves yet ranges are way too tight.

Happy Trading, peace.

[quote=Faller;4049881] 15tf 5-7pips(tight stoploss) with refer to the fibo.

Here is an interesting fact, as observed over 3 years.

Usually when the market opens until the first US session, price action tends to consolidate within the range established on Friday (low to high).

Now the question becomes, what happens when pa opens at an absolute high or absolute low from the previous Friday? This is the one exception to the rule that behaves differently.

There is no simple answer but 2 things are what happen usually in these conditions.
1)New high within the first few hours of the market open followed by a severe decline (testing the lows of Friday)
2)Pa opens with "gap" up (not this time), pa continues higher significantly, at some point pa comes back down to
A)determine whether gap became support then we go back up or
B)we start filling the gap which is then followed by severe decline

Let's see now