EUR/JPY Anytime!

China Currency Measure Heads for House Vote After Panel Approval

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...I5cx25Oc&pos=8

I smell trouble.

Hello guys, I just wanted to share a recent revelation with you. It is very important to pay note to this as this is going to affect the markets for quite some time due to Japan intervention and China currency uncertainty. It has been brought to my attention by my father who is no currency trader (lacks the patience) but is quite a successful investor that specializes in "options" (don't ask me about those, I'm not smart enough).

The idea is this. You may have noticed that recently the currency pairs have been totally uncorrelated. 5 weeks ago for example, if the USD/EUR went down, that would mean the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY would go down as well. It was a simple case of buy the dollar/yen while you sold the EURO. These days that does not apply anymore. Let's take Thursday night for example (US WESTERN time). Normal Asian session open around 4 or 5, we where at a intraday resistance level on the EUR/JPY and price action was just consolidating before what usually means a leg down to retest the lows made earlier in the day. WRONG. That resistance level was broken up hard and in less then 10minutes we where up 100 pips, and so was the USD/JPY, the EUR/USD did nothing. Not only that, but this move occured at one of the most inactive times of the day (around 8:30pm west coast time). In my 3 years of trading I have never seen a move start and end so abruptly at that time.

Phase 2 to this. Consolidation back towards where the move started over the next 2 hours. At this point, pa could go back up or continue lower. The USD/JPY went lower still so logic said the EUR/JPY would follow. WRONG. As soon as the EUR/USD went up, so did the EUR/JPY. So the EUR/JPY went higher still....changing correlations to whatever helped it make the next wave up. The question is, why? This never happened before.

Here comes the revelation part as concluded with my father. Dollar + Yen, they usually go hand in hand. They historically tend to get stronger or weaker at the same time (when traders want to avoid risk they buy the dollar + yen and when they want to take more risk they sell the dollar, yen...simple economics based on whatever the fundamentals are at the time).

In the present this is not true anymore. US wants a stronger YUAN (Chinese currency), weaker dollar, on the other hand the Japanese want a weaker Yen. There is a conflict of interest BIG time (you can read news articles about this). So what does this mean? IT means that for example Japan may sell Yen to make their currency weaker but not buy dollars, instead buy Euros. The US may sell dollars to make the dollar weaker but not buy Yen, instead buy Euros. Because of this, no matter what happens with the Eur/USD or the USD/JPY, the EUR/JPY will continue trending up since the overall sentiment is to not buy dollars/yen and instead buy another major currency, Winner winner chicken dinner being the EURO.

How long this is going to last? Who knows, just some food for thought.

To conclude, at the present the EUR/JPY is the middle ground, the true battlefield. My advice is to avoid this pair for some time and focus on the Eur/Usd or Usd/Jpy or some other major non yen cross pair because for the time being the EUR/JPY lacks fundamentals or technicals.

Sidenote: Have you noticed how whenever there's bad euro news the euro still gets stronger? The revelation fully explains why. The markets still need volatility, the market makers have to make money, they just adapted to current conditions and so must we.

As right as you may be, one cannot stop nor imagine the power of the herd; if the herd says up, up it is, if down - down it shall be.

NEVER QUESTION THE HERD. Their irrationality will far "outlive" your account balance/ available margin.

http://www.tedmontgomery.com/bblovrv...aFollowers.gif

Great article Psiholog,thanks for share...I also noticed that totaly uncolreted about 4,5 weeks becouse i think big speculation is in background...

RJ, what you said in bold is extremely wise and I think many who starts to trade are always trying to get that 1:3-1:5 ratio in risk/reward....

I reckon it just comes from books and especially stock trading books, articles etc.

I also move SL to BE but only on longer trades.

In intra I don't do that because my r/r is quite equal and if it goes in my favour it normally becomes a winner anyway. On friday my last trade went into positive then negative where 0.5 pips from SL then it ended up as a winner anyway... yey!

Ha, ha. Something happened that is extremely important, gentlemen. Finally, we have the switch in CFTC COT Euro data for non commercial investors from short over weeks and month to long !!!

Check out :

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

Strong EUR sell.

Interesting article

We will see when week start

I expect low of last week to be tested this week. 111.45.

I 've been watching and studying this cross for long time, and i will get to my view direct.
The cross trade between 111.60 and 113.60 , a test for low of the range 111.60 is expected following the yen when re-test 82.80 again, the euro will hold at this range and keep his gains. we can all remember that the intrevention on yen happend when he was at 82.90 and send him up to 85.50. So my view that another sharp up move will accure at yen form 82.80 area, and that will be enough to give the cross the green light to break above 114.00 and start his way to 119.50 target .
yen will get back to 90.00 area , and that will keep the cross going up more and more.

It is all relative,

Jen is currenlty dangereus pair becouse we have negative coleration 3,4 weeks this can be this week also,i wait to short eurusd this weeks and if usdjpy go also down eurjpy can go down but if usdjpy continue negative coleration it can be like last week...

Petar

itchy fingers.....shorted 113.51 tp 40pips....sl 113.95
and just realised trichet the cricket due to speak soon..

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/pw...0kcni0zpbr.jpg

can I ask hy you sold ?

hi nas....
itchy fingers....i trade solely based on 4h..should have taken trade during last three candles..reasons: stoch at xtreme and crossing down + few spinning tops followed by bearish candle

So you trade long term
yes long is short now

My strategy is for short term 15 min chart

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/eh...tt8pku0f1g.jpg

totally gain today = 95pips

ej gain : 17 pips

Totally today : +112 pips
Gu still open yet its -35 pip now...

+100 PIPS A DAY is fantastic nas.
i dont have patience to sit in front of screen...tats why i only trade 4h now.
but tis trade is only itchiness...i will only trade reversal at 114.72

http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/9706/ej8h.jpg

sorry its late , I was not at my work place too upload , its laate to open

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/qh...o65k0i2zhv.jpg

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/7j...v4ko7rggvw.jpg


+15 pips close

184 + 15 = +199 pips

What MV do you use in the 15 min chart ???? and is your method waiting for some kind of cross between them ???





Best Regards,