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  • #296,281
  • Sep 25, 2010 4:18am Sep 25, 2010 4:18am
Quoting Redeemed1
Somewhat contrarian view from Babypips: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...e_bad_and.html
sure the sky will turn dark for the euro... though i don't see 1.35 holding it for the time being - sure anything can change to be honest, and all of us here are aware of that... there is quite a chance we'll see a pullback from this level but from PA alone its pretty obvious to see a lot of force behind the bulls...

for a good pullback i'd like to see the daily on monday close bearish.
  • #296,282
  • Sep 25, 2010 4:34am Sep 25, 2010 4:34am
Still trend is in good direction we have major resistance at 50 FIb Level before completing this bulls channel.........

The break of this 50 Fib level will guide us for further upwards move and break of this fib level we will see a near turn resistance at 1.369X area and then 61.8 FIb Level which will complete this bulls channel too..

If price fail to break the 50 Fib Level near term support will be 200 SMA which is around 1.3204 at present....

FONTU i see you are there how you think about this EU move...
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  • #296,283
  • Sep 25, 2010 4:34am Sep 25, 2010 4:34am
Will watch reaction at 1.352 area which is 50% of 1.51 - 1.19

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Mind over matter..I don't mind and you don't matter.
  • #296,284
  • Sep 25, 2010 4:52am Sep 25, 2010 4:52am
Quoting jaylovin
remember the money movers are looking at the bigger TF's.... looking for 1000 pip moves... we could say the move from 2600 up to 3500 is pretty much there but then also look at the weekly and daily charts.... all i see is bull... does anyone else see different? be careful with your shorts... i don't see this bull stopping anytime soon.
I posted previously at 1.21 about the bullish divergence on the Weekly TF. The play out area for this was 1.34. This has now played out.
There is now very strong bearish divergence on the Daily TF with a play out area of below 1.25. Make of that what you want.
  • #296,285
  • Sep 25, 2010 5:38am Sep 25, 2010 5:38am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I posted previously at 1.21 about the bullish divergence on the Weekly TF. The play out area for this was 1.34. This has now played out.
There is now very strong bearish divergence on the Daily TF with a play out area of below 1.25. Make of that what you want.
checking my charts
  • #296,286
  • Sep 25, 2010 6:03am Sep 25, 2010 6:03am
hi guys, its my first post! i have a scenario about euro/usd. i think, its possible reversal point. do u agree with me?

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/3819/eu137.jpg

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  • #296,287
  • Sep 25, 2010 7:08am Sep 25, 2010 7:08am
I am short the EURO again. 300 pips hopefully.

I think the US market is over valued. Hence, ppl may jump back to riskless assets.
  • #296,288
  • Sep 25, 2010 7:46am Sep 25, 2010 7:46am
Quoting Redeemed1
Somewhat contrarian view from Babypips: http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...e_bad_and.html
That article was dated the 24th but was for the day of the 23rd... it says the EUR couldn't break 1.34... that's not the case anymore. That is one hell of the bullish engulfing candle that formed Friday on the daily.

Is it going to correct and retrace some? Sure.

Monday news is all basically EUR minor and Medium news and two speeches by ECB president. Bad news and dovish speeches from Trichet are all I could seeing really driving the EUR down any distance before we start seeing consistant growth from the US or another complete collapse from the EUR group.

Don't get me wrong the bulls are coming up to some major resistance but for at least the short term I think they still have the upper hand.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #296,289
  • Sep 25, 2010 7:50am Sep 25, 2010 7:50am
Quoting jaylovin
sure the sky will turn dark for the euro... though i don't see 1.35 holding it for the time being - sure anything can change to be honest, and all of us here are aware of that... there is quite a chance we'll see a pullback from this level but from PA alone its pretty obvious to see a lot of force behind the bulls...

for a good pullback i'd like to see the daily on monday close bearish.
It has to get back below that stubbon 1.3306 level. A daily beairsh close below it would turn my outlook much more bearish. That level held the berish daily candle from Thursday at bay.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #296,290
  • Sep 25, 2010 7:54am Sep 25, 2010 7:54am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I posted previously at 1.21 about the bullish divergence on the Weekly TF. The play out area for this was 1.34. This has now played out.
There is now very strong bearish divergence on the Daily TF with a play out area of below 1.25. Make of that what you want.
What indicator do you use to determine divergance compared to the PA? I am interested in learning more about divergances.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #296,291
  • Sep 25, 2010 7:54am Sep 25, 2010 7:54am
Quoting stocktrader
I am short the EURO again. 300 pips hopefully.

I think the US market is over valued. Hence, ppl may jump back to riskless assets.
I would love to see a chart as to your reasons for being bearish technically. Here is my view. Based on what I see, the month of October has the chance to push us below 1.6.....

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Japanese intervention is futile. Their efforts does not change the fact their economy is screwed, the US economy is screwed, the European economy is screwed. The Chinese don't want to make their currency any stronger either. Recession over a year ago? Nonsense, we are in a continued depression since 2008

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What does this chart say? Bear flag yes, on the largest time frames possible. That means the move to the downside hasn't started yet (but could next week). My personal opinion is it will begin in October/November when historically the market has been very bullish (elections). This time the contrarian belief will catch everyone off guard, just my 2 cents.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #296,292
  • Edited 9:08am Sep 25, 2010 9:07am | Edited 9:08am
[quote=psiholog;4048407]I would love to see a chart as to your reasons for being bearish technically. Here is my view. Based on what I see, the month of October has the chance to push us below 1.6.....

Here's my DOW chart.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_daKH_K17qag/TJ...age%5B2%5D.png

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_daKH_K17qag/TJ...age%5B2%5D.png
(why wont it load?)

The trend lines.
  • #296,293
  • Sep 25, 2010 9:11am Sep 25, 2010 9:11am
Quoting ukdaytrader
I posted previously at 1.21 about the bullish divergence on the Weekly TF. The play out area for this was 1.34. This has now played out.
There is now very strong bearish divergence on the Daily TF with a play out area of below 1.25. Make of that what you want.

hi there ukdaytrader... could you please show a chart or something as to what divergences you are seeing?? The only thing i can see on my charts is the daily TF showing an oversold market but isn't looking to point downwards.... many thanks in advance
  • #296,294
  • Sep 25, 2010 10:38am Sep 25, 2010 10:38am
There are 46,000 long Future contracts on Gold, which will be 'in the money' , if Gold closes over $1,300 on Monday.
Consequently, there will be a big push on Monday to achieve this and if gold does go over $1300, it will probably go to $1.500 quite quickly.
Given the inverse relationship between gold and the dollar, the outcome could affect the direction of the $ and involve huge losses for the Banks.
  • #296,295
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:03am Sep 25, 2010 11:03am
Quoting tamster
There are 46,000 long Future contracts on Gold, which will be 'in the money' , if Gold closes over $1,300 on Monday.
Consequently, there will be a big push on Monday to achieve this and if gold does go over $1300, it will probably go to $1.500 quite quickly.
Given the inverse relationship between gold and the dollar, the outcome could affect the direction of the $ and involve huge losses for the Banks.
anybody have any info on the % of gold/oil and other currencies against the $?? i've seen this before as a pie chart.. can't seem to find an updated one anywhere
  • #296,296
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:03am Sep 25, 2010 11:03am
Quoting walb99
Congratulations to your first post.
Do you mean retracement or reversal?
I mean reversal. Because, its not fibo-retrecement, its fibo-expansion. i think, euro-usd will be about 1.37 and will back down to fibo-exp lines.
  • #296,297
  • Sep 25, 2010 11:35am Sep 25, 2010 11:35am
Quoting fontu
though chances still there it go up 1.3531 to 1.3818 to 1.4265 still keeping shorts at this levels to see how how this present levels react.
fontu
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=296277

Just 2 charts in support , though not any sign of reversal yet but logically thinking anti-trend from next session but the oppsite still may happen , price can go any up with double dip recession Us spreading thoughout the world once again , more deep & profound!!
not thinking or like so but big money who may buy euro ( artificial winning , US ? ) may want this , impossible .wish big game end soon .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #296,298
  • Sep 25, 2010 12:23pm Sep 25, 2010 12:23pm
Not only are the Chinese conspiring against the Americans with currency manipulation, now the Europeans are at it too:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...27s+News+US%29
  • #296,299
  • Sep 25, 2010 2:16pm Sep 25, 2010 2:16pm
Quoting cloggie
Not only are the Chinese conspiring against the Americans with currency manipulation, now the Europeans are at it too:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...27s+News+US%29
if you belive that, you're in trouble. it's at least 4 month old news. wsj is known for subjectve news, to misguide little fish like as.
  • #296,300
  • Edited 3:01pm Sep 25, 2010 2:40pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting adrian07
if you belive that, you're in trouble. it's at least 4 month old news. wsj is known for subjectve news, to misguide little fish like as.

so what's changed since then?.....ez is in worse shape now, default on greek, irish, portuguese, bonds is inevitable. Those countries are bankrupt its not a secret. How will they be able to pay back bailouts and make good on their bonds? they are losing tax revenues as well as export gains with the euro rising. Aging populations break governments. The best thing ez can do is devalue the euro. That is the only thing that will make them survive....banks are already dipping into seniors pensions for capital. Look at the millions in france protest because they had to work 2 more years. Wait till other countries do this, soon their retirement age will be akin to the United States. A little civil unrest? yesss, riots? yesss, civil wars? maybe. I can guarantee those citizens will not stand for this much longer.

There are a lot of people that come to this thread with national pride. Now, there is no problem with that until you bring it into your trading plan. Then your bias becomes a problem. Having a completely unbiased opinion will help your trading a lot. Because let's be honest here, they're all screwed, US EZ GB etc.....The only countries that are benefiting now are the young emerging markets. I personally could care less where the euro or usd goes, because there is nothing that I can do to stop it. Trade with the flow, not your pride
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