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BOWALF - Breakout with ALF Filter

  • #81
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:20pm Sep 22, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting Dewey McG
I think the buffer would just reduce overall profits, but I haven't done a side by side comparison yet. Yours seemed to confirm that. I also want to look at which of the following possibilities would be best for entry:

1. As soon as the buy or sell entry is breached

2. Wait for a red or green candle to close above or below the buy or entry line

3. Go down to a 5 minute candle and wait for a red or green candle to breach the entry or buy line.

Thoughts?
I've been looking at this as well: inverted ALF false BO filter. If the m15 alf is below the h1 alf, then a long is likely a false BO and vice versa. the shorter term alf should lead the way. Its not a perfect filter, perhaps will increase your probability a bit...
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #82
  • Sep 22, 2010 8:26pm Sep 22, 2010 8:26pm
Hi everybody

Iam using FXSOL broker platform, and it is following EDT timing(NY timing).So I set my Start Hour to 1 & end hour 4 for Tier London breakout indicator.

please someone can help me to figure out if my sittings were correct?
  • #83
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:25pm Sep 22, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting mohd15
Hi everybody

Iam using FXSOL broker platform, and it is following EDT timing(NY timing).So I set my Start Hour to 1 & end hour 4 for Tier London breakout indicator.

please someone can help me to figure out if my sittings were correct?
London time would be from 1 - 3 AM New York time. Asian session is from 7 - 8PM NY time.
  • #84
  • Sep 23, 2010 1:28am Sep 23, 2010 1:28am
Today the Asian run took us up and back, then up again.
Using the 'step stop loss' we would have been out positive but the simple leave it until it hits the TP would have doubled the take.
I didn't total it, too tired, I have a cold and can't be bothered.
Just using it as an illustration - not arguing for or against the 'STSL'.
Attached Image
  • #85
  • Sep 23, 2010 3:17am Sep 23, 2010 3:17am
Quoting Phreddy
Oh Dear!
I do hope that this is not going to turn into a 'pick on the expression instead of the idea'.

The breakout box is simply a way of deciding a high and a low from which to work. In another thread it is a day, in another an inside bar of varying size.

A take profit at S/R is not unreasonable. I don't know if it isnt just too complicated for me, I am a simple chap!!

I would like to see a chart illustrating the method. Don't need the box in this instance, I wouldn't know how to place it anyway.

...and Johnny, yes I believe that the BO system...
Phreddy,

It doesn't have to be a coin toss on determining price direction. The price direction a lot of the time is already being played out as the market turned prior to the open. At other times the reversal occurs after the LO. The later is the problem as a trade is initiated in one direction and then the price reverses to hit the stop. Just add a simple Bollinger Bands to your chart as this should give you more insight to direction.

Johnny
  • #86
  • Sep 23, 2010 3:44am Sep 23, 2010 3:44am
Quoting Dewey McG
London time would be from 1 - 3 AM New York time. Asian session is from 7 - 8PM NY time.
Many thanks for your help Dewey
  • #87
  • Sep 23, 2010 3:51am Sep 23, 2010 3:51am
Quoting KingHigh
Johnny,

Because you make a statement and cute metaphors about village idiots, devining rods and compasses, does not mean that the fundamentals of the system is wrong.

The breakout box - historically, it has been shown that the greatest price action occurs during the London market open....
You're coming in late to the dance. If you were trading this method then I would not have to explain the position of the box problem. I traded the compass for a GPS. Knowing how to trade helps with the box problem.

Johnny
  • #88
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:25am Sep 23, 2010 4:25am
hi all
in the chart ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend line help.png Size: 73 KB
  • #89
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:04am Sep 23, 2010 6:04am
I ate it due to this false break...


Phreddy that GU box size was smaller than I would have traded so I stayed out of GU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: falsex.gif Size: 33 KB
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #90
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:30am Sep 23, 2010 6:30am
Tahshoon, I thought my trade had it all: ALF over MTFALF for the long and a break of the m15 down TL but it still tanked. Anyone see a clue as to why?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: falsey.jpg Size: 79 KB
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #91
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:36am Sep 23, 2010 6:36am
Quoting tahshoon
hi all in the chart ...
Hi Tashoon, I would love to see the chart for 22nd. Did the lines save you?
  • #92
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:47am Sep 23, 2010 6:47am
how was it with aud jpy... im going to test it again with the trend indicator tomorrow ...seems to be a success setup ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud jpy.png Size: 71 KB
  • #93
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:51am Sep 23, 2010 6:51am
Quoting forexweasel
Tahshoon, I thought my trade had it all: ALF over MTFALF for the long and a break of the m15 down TL but it still tanked. Anyone see a clue as to why?
At the risk of being cruel...INDIES TELL YOU WHAT HAPPENED...

Price moves as the big money decides, today they said "Get FW and his cronies", and that is just what they did. They hunted your stops.

OK, nasty streak back in its box, later your indies tell you the price goes down!!

Buffer discussion: Have a 10pip buffer, lift all TPs by 10.
(did someone already say this?)
  • #94
  • Sep 23, 2010 7:06am Sep 23, 2010 7:06am
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
Phreddy, It doesn't have to be a coin toss ... Just add a simple Bollinger Bands to your chart as this should give you more insight to direction.
Johnny
Thanks Johnny, I have done that and will see what happens.

...and there is no need for anyone to refer to my spiteful post about FW's ALFs
  • #95
  • Sep 23, 2010 7:18am Sep 23, 2010 7:18am
plz,look at the pic ... and have this trend ind. in attachment (all false , only show trend= true )
see u tomorrow ansha allah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: falsey 2.png Size: 377 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 U_MTF_SRTrend_v2.ex4   23 KB | 476 downloads
  • #96
  • Sep 23, 2010 7:49am Sep 23, 2010 7:49am
Quoting Phreddy
Today the Asian run took us up and back, then up again. Just using it as an illustration - not arguing for or against the 'STSL'.
Feeling a bit livelier now so having a look at the chart again and a thought of what would I do if I were watching. I will be when I go live in October.

A look at the Step trailing SL
The one step back ie on first (1TP) hit move to BE we would have finished with 7 pips. Taken out immediatly!

Two steps back would have not been hit yet.
When the 2TP was hit the two steps back is safe until it gets hit and we leave with 43 plus 2x14 = 71

The 22pip TP3 seems to be showing resistance maybe a good time to leave with 43 + 2x22 = 87

Trust the system and we get another 73 making 116.

But what if it went straight down taking us out for two BEs ....43 is still a good score!!

Perhaps that is the correct mind set for this situation.

Worst scenario +43
Other possabilities 71 and 87
Best senario + 116
Attached Image
  • #97
  • Sep 23, 2010 7:57am Sep 23, 2010 7:57am
Quoting tahshoon
plz,look at the pic ... and have this trend ind. in attachment (all false , only show trend= true ) see u tomorrow ansha allah
Don't do it Tashoon, you will always be chasing a good hour!!

If you need to move, Tokyo open is around midnight GMT I believe. Place your time there, or rather before there to catch a breakout.

The other thing is what happened on other days? You have posted wins!!

I know that I always say choose your own time but base it on something real.
  • #98
  • Sep 23, 2010 8:27am Sep 23, 2010 8:27am
Looks like a nice system although it took me a day or so before I could see it...
How about making a version covering the NY BO. I would like to try that too

GG
Now trading live
  • #99
  • Sep 23, 2010 9:15am Sep 23, 2010 9:15am
I took a look at august AJ asian session, filtering out any trade where the ALF/MTFALF didn't layer properly in the direction of the trade for the first trade of the session (hoping to avoid false breakouts). It saved from 5 SL but missed 4 decent trades. overall was only about 60% as good as without this as a filter.


I'm thinking the longer term TL being used in the earlier posts may be useful in filtering out false BO's.
Isolate yourself from the herd
  • #100
  • Sep 23, 2010 9:18am Sep 23, 2010 9:18am
Quoting Phreddy
Feeling a bit livelier now so having a look at the chart again and a thought of what would I do if I were watching. I will be when I go live in October.

A look at the Step trailing SL
The one step back ie on first (1TP) hit move to BE we would have finished with 7 pips. Taken out immediatly!

Two steps back would have not been hit yet.
When the 2TP was hit the two steps back is safe until it gets hit and we leave with 43 plus 2x14 = 71

The 22pip TP3 seems to be showing resistance maybe a good time to leave with 43 + 2x22 = 87

Trust...

I'm thinking to have the first adjustment to SL occur at TP2, but move the stop to TP1 and trail by 1 TP level on up. This saves you from the annoying 6-11 pip TP1 trades that stop out at BE but keeps stops tighter once you establish a stronger trend. This is how I've been backtesting.

Unfortunately, this week has not been awesome but I remain + for the month.
Isolate yourself from the herd
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