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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #7,981
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:24pm Sep 17, 2010 6:24pm
Quoting ahks
Would this be a failed 123 formation? AUDCHF 4 HR setup, 1 HR trigger. Entry is when price broke the trendline and aspect #2. SL was eventually hit.
Hello ahks,
Look at the chart I marked up, what happened here is was the retracement fell down below a horizontal resistance and then bounced off that resistance a few times, then it finally did break on a momentum break without any pullback, I would have passed on that just because there was no pull back on the time frame shown, however sometimes you can zoom to a smaller time frame other than the normal trigger chart and there you might be able to see the reversal formation, however on this chart it was not there.

Hope that helps.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Horizontal Res.png Size: 61 KB
  • #7,982
  • Sep 18, 2010 1:13am Sep 18, 2010 1:13am
Quoting Bandit
probably right. price already moved against me by 40 pips.
maybe the new trendline will do the trick
yep, that's the risk of entering earlier / on lower time-frames. One might get stopped out.

I also think we should draw a new trendline at that point.
  • #7,983
  • Sep 18, 2010 1:18am Sep 18, 2010 1:18am
Quoting MktScape
Custos ... so you must be in right from the bounce @ 1.4000 and wouldnt have waited for the TL BPC ..... ?
yeah, as you know I trade touches . I already entered 3 times, one at around 1.4, second one at around 1.398 and the third one at 1.392, which got stopped out already.

But I thought, why not posting some hector setups, since some people want to see those setups as well.
  • #7,984
  • Sep 18, 2010 1:21am Sep 18, 2010 1:21am
By the way, I would like to recommend you guys a thread which I have been reading a bit.

It's called DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=255112

A very interesting read. Definitely beneficial, you might wanna check it out.
  • #7,985
  • Sep 18, 2010 7:11am Sep 18, 2010 7:11am
Quoting Custos
By the way, I would like to recommend you guys a thread which I have been reading a bit.

It's called DanUK's Advanced Trend Trading Strategy.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=255112

A very interesting read. Definitely beneficial, you might wanna check it out.
earlier i have read his new thread ... good refresher though.

What do you say on shorting AUDCHF ....?
  • #7,986
  • Sep 18, 2010 7:13am Sep 18, 2010 7:13am
Quoting Custos
yeah, as you know I trade touches . I already entered 3 times, one at around 1.4, second one at around 1.398 and the third one at 1.392, which got stopped out already.

But I thought, why not posting some hector setups, since some people want to see those setups as well.
I knew you would be already be in .... if i would have identified earlier i would have tried doing the same
  • #7,987
  • Sep 18, 2010 7:17am Sep 18, 2010 7:17am
Quoting MktScape
earlier i have read his new thread ... good refresher though.

What do you say on shorting AUDCHF ....?
yes, the aud/chf is a really good opportunity, you could enter at the break of the pinbar.
  • #7,988
  • Sep 18, 2010 7:28am Sep 18, 2010 7:28am
Quoting Custos
yeah, as you know I trade touches . I already entered 3 times, one at around 1.4, second one at around 1.398 and the third one at 1.392, which got stopped out already.

But I thought, why not posting some hector setups, since some people want to see those setups as well.
one more thing i realized is that hector probably wont advocate taking this short as its touching the 100 sma because anything deep over 50sma was a no no for him.... which is why i think that though his techniques are good but even good can get better with some broader perspective.
  • #7,989
  • Sep 18, 2010 7:32am Sep 18, 2010 7:32am
Quoting MktScape
one more thing i realized is that hector probably wont advocate taking this short as its touching the 100 sma because anything deep over 50sma was a no no for him.... which is why i think that though his techniques are good but even good can get better.
hm, not sure what you refer to. As mentioned, the daily would be the setup chart, and in that time-frame, price didn't touch the 100 sma.
I know, the post I made was not totally hector conform, since it was 2 times lower time-frame for the trigger chart.
Sorry if I confused you.
  • #7,990
  • Sep 18, 2010 7:43am Sep 18, 2010 7:43am
Quoting Custos
hm, not sure what you refer to. As mentioned, the daily would be the setup chart, and in that time-frame, price didn't touch the 100 sma.
I know, the post I made was not totally hector conform, since it was 2 times lower time-frame for the trigger chart.
Sorry if I confused you.
ok ... i didn't realized that daily was the setup chart ....

but you didn't confused me .... i was recalling from hector's tutorials where he suggest that when price moves beyond the 50SMA meaning that the current trend is jeopardized therefore he would only take trades which stay under 50 SMA (i.e. dynamic area of support & resistance) and wont go up too far beyond 50 SMA and certainly not if its touching the 100 SMA ...


So i was saying that if one is following hector's methodology to the Tee then they would have probably not taken this setup ...but having a broader perspective i.e. solid historical pivots therefore can enter in the same trade a lot earlier and without waiting for too long.
  • #7,991
  • Sep 18, 2010 7:51am Sep 18, 2010 7:51am
Quoting MktScape
ok ... i didn't realized that daily was the setup chart ....

but you didn't confused me .... i was recalling from hector's tutorials where he suggest that when price moves beyond the 50SMA meaning that the current trend is jeopardized therefore he would only take trades which stay under 50 SMA (i.e. dynamic area of support & resistance) and wont go up too far beyond 50 SMA and certainly not if its touching the 100 SMA ...


So i was saying that if one is following hector's methodology to the Tee then they would have probably not taken this setup...
hm, okay I understand what you are saying and I agree in general, but again for this specific setup we didn't touch the 50 or 100 sma, since the setup chart is actually the DAILY, not the h4.
I personally think, the only thing not being standard hector approach was that I went down to h1 instead of h4 for the trigger chart, the rest was very much hector approach.
but that's only my opinion.

cheers
  • #7,992
  • Sep 18, 2010 7:58am Sep 18, 2010 7:58am
so as the price is now retesting the counter trendline therefore would you open another short with TT at the same price level i.e arounf 1.4000 ?
  • #7,993
  • Sep 18, 2010 8:45am Sep 18, 2010 8:45am
Quoting MktScape
so as the price is now retesting the counter trendline therefore would you open another short with TT at the same price level i.e arounf 1.4000 ?
hm, depends, but actually I would not look for another short at 1.4. At the first touch of the level there was a downtrendline coinciding with the level, thus it was likely that the level holds. If price would go there again, it would breach that downtrendline, thus not as likely that the level holds again.
  • #7,994
  • Sep 18, 2010 9:30am Sep 18, 2010 9:30am
Quoting NightMoves
Hello ahks,
Look at the chart I marked up, what happened here is was the retracement fell down below a horizontal resistance and then bounced off that resistance a few times, then it finally did break on a momentum break without any pullback, I would have passed on that just because there was no pull back on the time frame shown, however sometimes you can zoom to a smaller time frame other than the normal trigger chart and there you might be able to see the reversal formation, however on this chart it was not there.

Hope that helps.

--NM
Really helpful analysis NM. I never thought about using that extra horizontal resistance line besides the blue resistance line (confluence area) for further confirmation. Looking at the chart again, I agree the 123 reversal formation wasn't too clear.

Do you still trade AUDCHF, GBPCHF, and EURCHF pairs? You mentioned in the past, they gave false signals often.
  • #7,995
  • Sep 19, 2010 7:28am Sep 19, 2010 7:28am
Hi,
here are three charts which could trigger in the following week (hector-style). Cad/chf h4, eur/aud h4, gbp/aud h4.

best regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchf h4 19.9.2010.gif Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud h4 19.9.2010.gif Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud h4 19.9.2010.gif Size: 53 KB
  • #7,996
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:45am Sep 19, 2010 8:45am
Quoting Custos
Hi,
here are three charts which could trigger in the following week (hector-style). Cad/chf h4, eur/aud h4, gbp/aud h4.

best regards
Good setups Custos ... now its wait and watch ...or TT.
  • #7,997
  • Sep 19, 2010 8:57am Sep 19, 2010 8:57am
Hi Custos & MktScape

E-A is seen potentially going north based on PA?
A bull engulf candle shown at H4.
A pin bar with long wick at D.

Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: t ea.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: t ea2.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #7,998
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:10am Sep 19, 2010 9:10am
Quoting ahks
Really helpful analysis NM. I never thought about using that extra horizontal resistance line besides the blue resistance line (confluence area) for further confirmation. Looking at the chart again, I agree the 123 reversal formation wasn't too clear.

Do you still trade AUDCHF, GBPCHF, and EURCHF pairs? You mentioned in the past, they gave false signals often.
I have not traded anything with the CHF in it lately, I have been avoiding the CHF pairs because to me they have been pretty risky to trade with the SNB lurking in the bushes I have been staying away from that currency.

--NM
  • #7,999
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:00am Sep 19, 2010 11:00am
Quoting NightMoves
I have not traded anything with the CHF in it lately, I have been avoiding the CHF pairs because to me they have been pretty risky to trade with the SNB lurking in the bushes I have been staying away from that currency.

--NM
CHF pairs are like a one-armed stripper. Sure, it seems ok naked...but something always seems different. Personally I prefer avoiding most of them for intraday trading.
Glad to see you back NM. Hope your thread continues helping those who seek it
  • #8,000
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:50am Sep 19, 2010 11:50am
Quoting tradpat
Hi Custos & MktScape

E-A is seen potentially going north based on PA?
A bull engulf candle shown at H4.
A pin bar with long wick at D.

Cheers
hm, again there is no right or wrong answer.
But I believe there are two important things PA & S&R levels.
PA alone won't let you see the whole picture.
As you can see from my attached eur/aud d1 chart, price is just testing a resistance level.

In general, most price action trading threads will advice you that PA is not enough, you also need location. And since the bullish PA goes AGAINST a resistance level, it is not wise to trade that bullish PA. What we want is bearish PA showing a bounce off from a resistance level.

So in my opinion, for now e/a is still bearish until we cleared that resistance level.

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud d1 19.9.2010.gif Size: 47 KB
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