2 Weeks Trading Experience

since 130.40

not a system trade, but another experience trade. I cant miss this party with geishas ans sake!!!

The entry is not a system trade at all, but see my post nr 48....

gbp/jpy can move 500/600 pips or more in a crazy day like this one (or not, just in case my stop is 129.90, risking 50 pips of my money to see).

Pepe

ForexLive.com 6 min ago:

Japan will intervene in forex during New York hours if needed – Kyodo citing MOF official
By Gerry Davies || September 15, 2010 at 10:50 GMT

Posted by me elsewhere in FF before reading that news above:

Do not short any yen pair
if you cant resist the temptation, just close your charts and go play with your kid or your dog, or go fishing. If you stay and short, you could be fishing falling knifes. This is serious BOJ intervention, and anything can happen, normal charts and TA doesn't apply. Be very careful. Follow the rule at my signature rule! Trading as a profession is a long term business, you dont need to trade all the time! JMHO.

Pepe

Is rule number 1 of TRADING IN THE ZONE, by Mark Douglas (recommended Lecture and re-lecture!)


1) Anything can happen

2) You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.

3) There is a random distribution between the wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

4) An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

5) Every moment in the market is unique.


I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE:

1) I objectively identify my edges.

2) I predefine the risk of every trade.

3) I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.

4) I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.

5) I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.

6) I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.

7) I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.

and that could be nothing in the medium term.

Don't tell I didn't share

Well, as we used to say in my country, the evil knows because is an evil, but he knows more because is old! LOL


Pepe

What a day, some will never forget (party time here) other will never forget but because they were in the wrong side of these bullet trains, or had not knowledge (and/or guts) to go into this easy train.

Now, I myself have to take a decision, that was never easy to me. Lets the trades run to 137-138 (possible target of this week) or take profits because of possible retrace.

A great trader, friend of mine, Brad (where are you buddy??) use to say Pepe, if you need to move your stop to break even, close the position and take your profits!!

To me nothing works as I would like, not even trailing stop. So for awhile I will hold these longs, and pray to the God of the Pits for a little more help (by the way God at the Pips is a nice reading book).

Peace & Love

Pepe

PS: you cant imagine how happy I am to have this existential dilemma LOL

first time after the up move I have some signals of potential retrace.

Will consider to re enter after some retrace, even in other yen pairs.

If no retrace, +340 Pips. I cant complain.


Pepe

133.00 round number and intermediate atr up line

132.14 pivot and ma 35

off course in nano second BOJ could sell another billion/s and send yen 100 pips up in no time, but since they refuse to answer my calls for more information, will stay with the charts.

Pepe

Received this from email in a non trading matter, but I found it very interesting to be applied to trade forex!!

Unconscious incompetence-this is the stage where you don't know that you don't know;

Conscious incompetence- this is the stage that you know you don't know;

Conscious competence - this is when you know that you know, but you have to consciously think about it;

Unconscious competence- this is when it is second nature; this is when the information is part of you; this is when you know it just as easily as you know your own name; this is when it is fully internalized and it becomes automatic.

Pepe

Levels to watch in gbp/jpy: 133.0 and 132.14!!

if you entered in 133.0 you had an easy ride of + 100 pips with no heat!!!

I myself took just +50 pips because I went out to town, and living gbp/jpy with just 50 pips space makes no sense to me (but the +50 pips, and specially the money behind these pips makes a lot of sense).

Flat now. Watching.

Pepe

I suspect this Friday could be complicated...I am doing very well for the month, so I will stay flat, at least for awhile.

Trade safe.

Pepe

if break yesterday high.

Pepe

broken!
already 60 pips
You are clever, I hope to learn from you this kind of operativity, since I work and I can set order just 2-3 times/day...
keep going Pepe

It was funny, a few minutes after I posted here I entered long aud/jpy and cashed + 75 pips x 2 this morning. My bias is still long, but I was not playing long term, and mu charts were screaming to me: take profits...take profits... will post them later and you will see they were correct

Great to see I am helping. So far posting here is giving me luck, so I will stay around LOL

Now, certainly no more trades until Sunday night!!!

WHAT A GREAT WEEK!!! NOT A SINGLE LOSS.

Pepe

but first a comment about "indicators", a lot of "pro" here in FF will tell you that indicators are useless, bla bla. I think they are exactly like the traders....95% are losers...5% are winners... I tested over 3000 indicators all these years, (and continue testing all the time)...very few passed any tests and very very few passed the test of the time. Just thinking out loud, may be the same apply to "price action", "vsa", etc etc. The true is, IMHO, that trading is an art as well as a science, and this why is so hard to "learn".

Now see why it was so easy to take profits for me in aud/jpy early this morning, and if someone appears here to tell me that indicators are all useless I will need to kill someone.

Blue line is proprietary Average True Range. Yellow line is Pivot. Purple wide line is ema144.

The most fantastic thing was that usd/jpy was not going anywhere, just sitting on pivot, and aud/usd was very similar to aud/jpy. Easy take profits!!

I was re thinking my previous comment and the % of good indicators could be worst than the % of winning traders.

If I tested 3000 and I use 5 all the time, and lets say other 10 sometimes, that is less 1/3% of valuable indicators, rest is, for me, useless crap.

Anyway, indicators are just that indications, they dont know what is going on, and if you follow blindly you can end blind , if just getting 2 or 3 moving averages crosses and/or some very complicated indicators could make you millionaire it will be no market. It is a lot harder than that, there is no shortcuts. Off course the reward is big enough...

Pepe

could bring us a trade with correct R/R.


Pepe

gbp/jpy long.

trade didn't go as I expected initially, but still could go up. If not will take the loss and move to next set up.

Is this or any trading strategy perfect? Certainly not; there is no perfect trading strategy and there doesn't need to be. If there was, that person would have all the world's money. However, wrapping some simple rules and logic around your trading is the key to stacking the odds in your favor. Even Las Vegas does not win all the time. They do well over time because they realize they don't have to always win. They just need to stick to their rules that allow them to keep the edge which means betting against people who don't have the edge. SAM SEIDEN (very good to read, recommended!!)

Regards

Pepe

Hi pepe, i just finished reading your Journal and i must apologyse for not being in here from the begginning, but i had some personal problems that kept me out of the forums, i must say congratulations to you on this journbal even though i see there wasn't much people in here, that few received a slap in the face, i would have loved to be here but unfortunately it was the wrong time for me, very nice journal so far and very constructive hope that you continue with it, thank you and happy pippin

Hi Robby,

Many thanks.

I stopped trading this month after my first lost because I was not happy with BOJ intervention and specially because I was already happy with my % for the month, dont wanting to risk anything more in these market conditions.

Now a new month is beginning so lets see what it is in the Pandora Box for us. I am interested to create a small private group to discuss NEW potential systems, indicators and alike. If interested drop me a line.

Regards

Pepe