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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #18,821
  • Sep 17, 2010 7:16am Sep 17, 2010 7:16am
Quoting Larseg
Hehe, your not alone mate.. not alone...

Wasn't a big move so I will just let it run as the last trade before the week-end...

Have been using RSI swingpoint, 14MA and supertrend the last 2 weeks pretty good results:

6 wins 2 loss and 1 BE with 1:4 So happy hippo, I reckon I will use the same model next week...

Are you all discretionary RJ?
Your win/loss ratio is good...long may it continue

Yeah I have my set of rules that i stick to....or I try to stick to! Most times when I deviate I get spanked!! The downside to being so inflexible is that sometimes trades that don't fit my rules are pretty big pip trades that I can't participate in. But that's ok, the trades I take have a very high probability, so I'm content to stay with that.

To be perfectly honest, the rules belong more to acumen (Mike) than me....credit where credits due
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,822
  • Sep 17, 2010 7:59am Sep 17, 2010 7:59am
Quoting realjumper
Your win/loss ratio is good...long may it continue

Yeah I have my set of rules that i stick to....or I try to stick to! Most times when I deviate I get spanked!! The downside to being so inflexible is that sometimes trades that don't fit my rules are pretty big pip trades that I can't participate in. But that's ok, the trades I take have a very high probability, so I'm content to stay with that.

To be perfectly honest, the rules belong more to acumen (Mike) than me....credit where credits due

Wise, It's good to have a system... I wish I could be all discretionary but it just doesn't fit me...

Even though that the system belongs to acumen you still know when to use it and when to leave it... and that's what its all about...

I also get in trouble when I deviate from my plan, but I reckon that's good.. the sooner the market corrects me the better

7 hours left of mrkt trading going to bed,

happy pips!
  • #18,823
  • Sep 17, 2010 8:04am Sep 17, 2010 8:04am
Quoting Larseg
Wise, It's good to have a system... I wish I could be all discretionary but it just doesn't fit me...

Even though that the system belongs to acumen you still know when to use it and when to leave it... and that's what its all about...

I also get in trouble when I deviate from my plan, but I reckon that's good.. the sooner the market corrects me the better

7 hours left of mrkt trading going to bed,

happy pips!
Yeah I'll be gone shortly too....have a great weekend
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,824
  • Sep 17, 2010 8:40am Sep 17, 2010 8:40am
Quoting realjumper
Interesting how it's not moving.....ej, eu, gu, au, uc are all on the move....can't figure out why ths pair is so dead
must be due to options expiry is why this thing is in a holding pattern.

I am holding till next week and hoping to get a break out of this 85.80 area up another 200 to 400 pip by end of next week.

entry was 120 pip lower so just set stop be . I am not a sawing trader and do not typically have this patience lol .... but eu and gu giving me loads of moves to keep me happy
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,825
  • Sep 17, 2010 8:46am Sep 17, 2010 8:46am
Quoting malcolmb14
must be due to options expiry is why this thing is in a holding pattern.

I am holding till next week and hoping to get a break out of this 85.80 area up another 200 to 400 pip by end of next week.

entry was 120 pip lower so just set stop be . I am not a sawing trader and do not typically have this patience lol .... but eu and gu giving me loads of moves to keep me happy
That's what it's all about isn't it?.....if one pair doesn't give up it's pips, there's always other pairs that will!!

My long term trade in this pair can stay until the bitter end, either way. Monday is a bank holiday in Japan so we might not see much until mid week next week. E/J has been pretty good today though, so I've got no complaints!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,826
  • Sep 17, 2010 12:09pm Sep 17, 2010 12:09pm
USDJPY is sitting on the top edge of a downward channel.

Next week will be interesting.
  • #18,827
  • Sep 17, 2010 8:20pm Sep 17, 2010 8:20pm
This article is very, very interesting.....it's saying exactly what we have been talking about recently, regarding the 'safe haven' status of the Yen, and how the Japanese bubble WILL burst.....read on: http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/6140...denly-rise.htm
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,828
  • Sep 17, 2010 10:09pm Sep 17, 2010 10:09pm
Hey all, here is another good article on the recent Japanese government intervention into the FX markets. It talks about how the technicals and fundamentals combined for a huge move...Japanese yen intervention article
  • #18,829
  • Sep 17, 2010 10:42pm Sep 17, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting lartrade0623
Hey all, here is another good article on the recent Japanese government intervention into the FX markets. It talks about how the technicals and fundamentals combined for a huge move...Japanese yen intervention article

hindsight is perfect .

besides, they label pin bar any-o-how ...
  • #18,830
  • Edited 11:14pm Sep 17, 2010 10:44pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting mry2001
USDJPY is sitting on the top edge of a downward channel.

Next week will be interesting.
care to elaborate with a chart ?

thanks



.
Attached Image
  • #18,831
  • Sep 17, 2010 10:58pm Sep 17, 2010 10:58pm
On news: Japan's debt could suddenly spiral out of control
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=256566

If the jap economy is hit badly due to the mounting debt, Yen should go down. Which means UJ uptrend is a confirmed thing, either ways, BOJ wants it to go up and the economy also pointing to the same direction.

Do you guys think the same as me for the medium term (in weeks) UJ trend?

Thanks.........
  • #18,832
  • Edited 8:41am Sep 18, 2010 4:05am | Edited 8:41am
This is the effect of Japanese state intervention on its currency (long USDJPY) from dec 2003 - apr 2004
To calculate the mean entry of their long I took the lowest price from dec 1 2003 and the lowest price from 31 mar 2004 and divided by 2.
This may well be a fairly crude analysis of how the situation played out but it may well also provide us with the "skeleton" of a future trade plan.
A possible (and I admit very simplistic) plan would be to look for a significant appreciation in the pair (perhaps 5 - 10%) in a time period of approximately 6 weeks after the conclusion of the intervention,and then to go short.
http://www.kathylien.com/site/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPYINTERVENTION.jpg Size: 111 KB
  • #18,833
  • Sep 18, 2010 8:09pm Sep 18, 2010 8:09pm
U/J has been sideways ever since the long straddle up. No clear direction trend, what should be expect this week.
  • #18,834
  • Sep 18, 2010 9:22pm Sep 18, 2010 9:22pm
Attachment
Quoting TheArcher
care to elaborate with a chart ?

thanks



.
Here is my chart:
The lines are drawn by demark indicator.
I am waiting for a buy signal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #18,835
  • Sep 19, 2010 2:11am Sep 19, 2010 2:11am
There seemed to be serious long buyers before closing Friday. Any senior member like to elaborate where the USD/JPY might gap at opening time?
  • #18,836
  • Sep 19, 2010 7:22am Sep 19, 2010 7:22am
Quoting mry2001
Attachment

Here is my chart:
The lines are drawn by demark indicator.
I am waiting for a buy signal.
thanks for the kind reply.

ur post made me aware of something called DeMark indicator.

looked up and and landed with turbokaos thread .....

what can i say .... more reading to do .....

sigh .... throwing up arms .....

screaming .... " arrk !! ... for heaven's sake ... which is the correct method to fleece the market .... !!! "

looks like there are more methods to fleece the small fries than other way round .... ! ?

sigh ... !

i think i'll just stick to what i know ...

"do one and do it well "

---------------------------------------------

cheeky

.... now reading pdf " the new science of technical analysis " by thomas r. demark


" There is , in fact, no infalliable investment approach "

'only a few know how to use it ' ...

'can be costly if used it without understanding the mathematics behind the indicator ' ...

' 70% accurate in predicting' ....

sigh .. what else is new ?

------------------------------------------

"I recall that a recent back test of theSequential signals showed them to be
around 70% accurate.DeMark is essentially a risk-reward strategy and its stop-loss positioning means that even when the indicators occasionally underperform, losses are cut to a minimum. In my experience, the TD SequentialIndicator is more than 70% reliable; it is closer to 90%.”

....

Magnus warns that it is crucial the indicator is properly understood. "Unless you understand exactly the maths behind the signals,you can make costly errors. There are only two guys in the London FX market who can explain these signals with authority. Jason Perl at UBS in London and I often talk to make sure we get it spot on.”

Cheeky


.
  • #18,837
  • Sep 19, 2010 7:24am Sep 19, 2010 7:24am
Quoting mry2001
Attachment

Here is my chart:
The lines are drawn by demark indicator.
I am waiting for a buy signal.

can u mark on your chart the Demark 1,2,3, ...etc .... so that we can follow with ur thought process ....

thanks
  • #18,838
  • Sep 19, 2010 11:06am Sep 19, 2010 11:06am
Quoting PipMaxzz
On news: Japan's debt could suddenly spiral out of control
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=256566

If the jap economy is hit badly due to the mounting debt, Yen should go down. Which means UJ uptrend is a confirmed thing, either ways, BOJ wants it to go up and the economy also pointing to the same direction.

Do you guys think the same as me for the medium term (in weeks) UJ trend?

Thanks.........
For you guys what is the very fundamental reason that
makes USD/JPY pair goes to the lowest level at 82.88?
I was really confused since the yen was so strong and at the other side the japan debt rate was very high. A very opposite with what it should happen right? Many news said that this interfention will fail if japan gov only do this alone without any coordination. So if we see the japan debt rate we will se th USD/JPY rise sharply but iF we see the previous market reaction this pair will still go down. So which way this pair will go? Following the previous market reaction. Or move where it should be based on the fundamental condition? I will take the fundamental suggest me now. But how about youbguys please share with me and many other trader here. Thanks
  • #18,839
  • Sep 19, 2010 1:28pm Sep 19, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting TheArcher
can u mark on your chart the Demark 1,2,3, ...etc .... so that we can follow with ur thought process ....

thanks
I use demark on daily chart.

I set LevDP=12. This is the most important parameter.
So demark finds the point higher(or lower) than 12 days before and after on the daily bars.

I also try it on the weekly chart and it shows very nice entry signals.

My setting is shown in the picture below.

You can play with Demark parameters by yourself.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: demark12.jpg Size: 33 KB
  • #18,840
  • Sep 19, 2010 1:50pm Sep 19, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting TheArcher

i think i'll just stick to what i know ...



.
You said it. Most strategies work will work well in the hands of an experienced trader. Whenever I change from what I know I seem to lose.
Gone to a better place
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