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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #18,801
  • Sep 16, 2010 1:56pm Sep 16, 2010 1:56pm
Quoting Naseri13
Hi J.Giordano

- I already answered you 3 times.
please check your pms
Hi

Yes..But I replied you third times already but havent received you any responded.Is there any problem with the PM feature ?
  • #18,802
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:10pm Sep 16, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting malcolmb14
after havign a good nights sleep I think I have worked out why we will not see a rise in uj again till tomorrow.

tomorrow is options expiry.... they are giving all a chance to get rid of the puts they have been holding. The banking industry would not be happy if boj kept on ramping up uj before options expiry..... i am sure the stalling in uj has something to do with this
How do you get a schedule of those Option Expiry?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,803
  • Sep 16, 2010 3:02pm Sep 16, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting malcolmb14
yup already in a dxd calls play for a move down in dj tomorrow

will also be establishing es sells

4 times per year only ... tomorrow should be a nice volatile one
I bet it will will be dead like it has been last while... So much for the post labour day volatility... maybe the HFT's have been banned lol

If it goes down I bet it will only be like 30-50 points before PPT steps back in
  • #18,804
  • Sep 16, 2010 3:47pm Sep 16, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting realjumper
It's hard to know what BOJ are truely doing, or going to do......we will be the last to know!! I'm sure shorts can work for some people, but not for me....not at this stage anyway. For me it's either long, or else sit it out and trade something else.
Def. the last to know

But I am still long until someone takes it out, wouldn't think that would be BOJ

Import/export in Japan is pretty much the same but import is hurt by strong JPY also... 550 000 000 000/540 000 000 000 is a lot of money.. a change for 200 pips at this stage=75 000 000 a day (USD).

Would like to see some analysts calculation on this whole thing,

KISS
  • #18,805
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:49pm Sep 16, 2010 4:49pm
Inserted Video
  • #18,806
  • Sep 16, 2010 8:11pm Sep 16, 2010 8:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
after havign a good nights sleep I think I have worked out why we will not see a rise in uj again till tomorrow.

tomorrow is options expiry.... they are giving all a chance to get rid of the puts they have been holding. The banking industry would not be happy if boj kept on ramping up uj before options expiry..... i am sure the stalling in uj has something to do with this
Yep.....hard to beat a good sleep Malcolm.....even if it's only to make the coffee taste better!!

The options expiry is something I hadn't thought of, but it makes sense now that you mention it. Also, the Yen is more or less steady at the moment (currently 85.75) so I imagine that BOJ will be content to sit this out for a while and see where it goes. If we see a rapid decline in this pair over a short period of time I would think that BOJ will take further action....but as long as it stays steady, I think they will be content to let sleeping dogs lie....no point in throwing money at this thing in a haphazard way....intervention is a costly business!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,807
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:45pm Sep 16, 2010 9:45pm
why the quick move up?
  • #18,808
  • Sep 17, 2010 1:16am Sep 17, 2010 1:16am
Quoting realjumper
Yep.....hard to beat a good sleep Malcolm.....even if it's only to make the coffee taste better!!

The options expiry is something I hadn't thought of, but it makes sense now that you mention it. Also, the Yen is more or less steady at the moment (currently 85.75) so I imagine that BOJ will be content to sit this out for a while and see where it goes. If we see a rapid decline in this pair over a short period of time I would think that BOJ will take further action....but as long as it stays steady, I think they will be content to let sleeping dogs...

this is so dumb

tonight in Asia es rips 8 points , typically that should take uj up , everything else rips , aj , eu gu , etc etc .... uj does ..well sweet fa to be honest

I beat boj feel like right muppets about now.
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  • #18,809
  • Sep 17, 2010 2:02am Sep 17, 2010 2:02am
Quoting malcolmb14
this is so dumb

tonight in Asia es rips 8 points , typically that should take uj up , everything else rips , aj , eu gu , etc etc .... uj does ..well sweet fa to be honest

I beat boj feel like right muppets about now.
I don't understand the stagnent pa either, but neither do I pay it too much mind.....plenty of other pairs to trade.

I don't think boj will feel like muppets, to all intents and purposes the first stage (assuming there will be more) of intervention has been pretty successfull. The downhiil slide of this pair was halted in it's tracks at 82.80 and now we are 300 pips higher with no sign of a return to the downside. I imagine that boj are toasting themselves for a job well done....so far.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,810
  • Sep 17, 2010 2:37am Sep 17, 2010 2:37am
Quoting malcolmb14
this is so dumb

tonight in Asia es rips 8 points , typically that should take uj up , everything else rips , aj , eu gu , etc etc .... uj does ..well sweet fa to be honest

I beat boj feel like right muppets about now.

As long as they can delay the action they are happy I reckon, does anyone have some analysis on what's going to hapen with an extreme JPY in the future?

Still Long
  • #18,811
  • Sep 17, 2010 2:50am Sep 17, 2010 2:50am
Quoting Larseg
As long as they can delay the action they are happy I reckon, does anyone have some analysis on what's going to hapen with an extreme JPY in the future?

Still Long
Not sure whether this constitutes analysis, but sooner or later the focus will shift from EU and USA economic woes, and turn on Japan. When that happens I imagine that 100+ is on the cards for this pair because Japan is in 'it' right up to it's neck.....and I'm aiming (long term) for 100.00. No timeline though because I can't see that far ahead!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,812
  • Sep 17, 2010 3:47am Sep 17, 2010 3:47am
Quoting realjumper
Not sure whether this constitutes analysis, but sooner or later the focus will shift from EU and USA economic woes, and turn on Japan. When that happens I imagine that 100+ is on the cards for this pair because Japan is in 'it' right up to it's neck.....and I'm aiming (long term) for 100.00. No timeline though because I can't see that far ahead!!
looking at EUR now it seems like they are getting quite strong...

(For every yen drop Toyoto loses 2% in profit.. wow!)

I reckon when things are not priced in US anymore as, wheat, coca etc. EUR is the first to take over...
I can see 100 in the future too, but when?
  • #18,813
  • Sep 17, 2010 4:17am Sep 17, 2010 4:17am
Looks like Japan cant intervence alone..they needed some power from other countries as well
  • #18,814
  • Sep 17, 2010 4:20am Sep 17, 2010 4:20am
Quoting Larseg
looking at EUR now it seems like they are getting quite strong...

(For every yen drop Toyoto loses 2% in profit.. wow!)

I reckon when things are not priced in US anymore as, wheat, coca etc. EUR is the first to take over...
I can see 100 in the future too, but when?
Well I can't see it happening this year....but it might, you just never know!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,815
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:43am Sep 17, 2010 6:43am
Quoting realjumper
Well I can't see it happening this year....but it might, you just never know!

Word bro,


But.... Can someone please create some action in here? the pair is stuck
  • #18,816
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:51am Sep 17, 2010 6:51am
Quoting Larseg
Word bro,


But.... Can someone please create some action in here? the pair is stuck
Interesting how it's not moving.....ej, eu, gu, au, uc are all on the move....can't figure out why ths pair is so dead
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,817
  • Sep 17, 2010 6:58am Sep 17, 2010 6:58am
This is just my two cent... (don't take it seriously)

Now you have $40T hanging in front of your face -- JP says they are willing to give it out. You want a part of this huge pie. But how?

Answer 1 -- selling yen
Answer 2 -- buying yen

As long as you sell yen, JP will not give out their dough. That's for sure. So, you need to buy. When you do, yen goes up. Then JP pours money in the market to drag the price down. After yen gets cheap again, you buy again to make JP cough up more money.

Of course you can't keep buying due to the limited resource. But what if you can? -- eventually you keep yen below 80.00.

Then, you start selling it gradually.

I know, this is too simplified scenario, but viable as a theory.

I wish I could surf along with the price action when somebody made it happen.
  • #18,818
  • Sep 17, 2010 7:00am Sep 17, 2010 7:00am
Quoting realjumper
Interesting how it's not moving.....ej, eu, gu, au, uc are all on the move....can't figure out why ths pair is so dead

As we speak, here it goes

BE, keen on a small short from here.... Maybe everyone was already bull

Quote JK:
Trading is so difficult because 98% of the volume in liquid markets is speculative; only 2% is fundamentally driven. The 98%, the speculative volume, is the major force of the market determining the price trajectory – you need to understand the behaviour of the speculative traders to make money.
  • #18,819
  • Sep 17, 2010 7:04am Sep 17, 2010 7:04am
Quoting Larseg
As we speak, here it goes

BE, keen on a small short from here.... Maybe everyone was already bull

Quote JK:
Trading is so difficult because 98% of the volume in liquid markets is speculative; only 2% is fundamentally driven. The 98%, the speculative volume, is the major force of the market determining the price trajectory – you need to understand the behaviour of the speculative traders to make money.
Yeah it did move, but a pretty micky mouse move compared to the other Yen and USD crosses.......

Nice quote.....I struggle to understand my own behaviour at times....let alone others...lol.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,820
  • Sep 17, 2010 7:08am Sep 17, 2010 7:08am
Quoting realjumper
Yeah it did move, but a pretty micky mouse move compared to the other Yen and USD crosses.......

Nice quote.....I struggle to understand my own behaviour at times....let alone others...lol.....

Hehe, your not alone mate.. not alone...

Wasn't a big move so I will just let it run as the last trade before the week-end...

Have been using RSI swingpoint, 14MA and supertrend the last 2 weeks pretty good results:

6 wins 2 loss and 1 BE with 1:4 So happy hippo, I reckon I will use the same model next week...

Are you all discretionary RJ?
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