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AUD/USD

  • #23,061
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:11pm Sep 16, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting MarcVUM
What a joke!
You short AUD/USD yet?
Dr. C
  • #23,062
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:26pm Sep 16, 2010 2:26pm
Quoting cvcamper
You short AUD/USD yet?
Ya, I've got a position at 9400.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #23,063
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:52pm Sep 16, 2010 2:52pm
Quoting MarcVUM
What a joke!

I think that the appropriate description is going nowhere fast.
  • #23,064
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:39pm Sep 16, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting usapgapro
I am going to have to disagree....
What part of my statement exactly do you disagree with? I don't recall ever saying Australia was cheap. It certainly isn't. I went to LA for 4 months, I came back, my breakfast at coffee club went up 40%, my calamari at the fish n chips shop went from $3 to $4.50, in 4 months! That's inflation. That's why I'm leaving. I can't stand Brisbane. It certainly isn't the place it was 8 years ago when I got here.

When you get a price on a laptop that is imported, you are paying high tariff, in addition to GST of 10%. That is not reflected in the price in the US. And you cannot simply ignore the volume of the markets. I'd rather export boatloads to a market of 300m than to a backwater with 20m.
  • #23,065
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:43pm Sep 16, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting domino
the year is 2150 the economies merge together to create one unified world ... but mars has been colonized due to advanced technology and is unified under its own leadership.. the population of mars wants to buy sneakers that are made on earth... that costs 99 dollars to buy on earth.. for mars to get those sneakers they have to be taken to a loading dock.. feul a space ship.. loaded onto the space ship.. flown to mars.. and unloaded at another loading dock and then distributed to retail stores... mars taxes the crap out of the sneaker company on...
Exactly. So much so that when I get off this island and head for the US I'm not even bring a bag full of clothes. I'm simply giving them away and getting new stuff in the states. Australia is way way way overpriced on everything retail. 2 breakfast at cappuccinos at coffee club (nothing special) $50. No BS. I can take my family to Cheesecake Factory in Beverly Hills for lunch for $50. It doesn't really matter to Aussie though. They live in a bubble. It's like bizarro America.
  • #23,066
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:46pm Sep 16, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting lasty
AUD is going to parity and beyond.
Sure things are more expensive in Australia but hey they are cheaper in Vietnam ( where those Nikesare made), so with a strong AUD and a holiday you can buy as many pairs for under $100 as you like ;-)
Food and clothing items vary from place to place.
Besides why not buy online and save the GST under $1000 when purchasing overseas.

Fundamentally Australia is sound and despite our political fracas we are stable and ripe for foreign investors to park their dough.
AUD Interest rates will always be higher than...
You bring up an excellent point. By now hopefully none of you have heard, but you probably have, the Oprah is taking her entire tv audience to the outback. Well that was bought and paid for ($3m) by the Australian government as a ploy to get tourists. At the moment there are more Australians leaving and taking vacations outside of Australia then there are anyone from abroad coming in. I don't blame them. The culture fell off a cliff when Rudd was elected. It's been like living with a bitter drunk ever since. Disgraceful. But hey, the bank still gives me 6% on my money.
  • #23,067
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:54pm Sep 16, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting domino
look at all the skitzo charts out there jesus... I have to say if you can trade through these times you can trade through anything..

im kinda scared of this Dow .... anyone else see the shit storm brewing?
That's really what it's all about. What's going to bring the dow up, or down. I read an briefing on RBA's website yesterday. They agree the price movements in AUD are heavily correlated with Dow.

Personally, I'm on the fence on this one. Fundamentally, things don't look good at all. But people are tired of the 'world is coming to an end' bullshit, and everyone needs a house to live in, and apparently a job to go to. So maybe they'll stop smoking weed and and playing PS3 and get on with life. I dunno. Any fundamentals to convince either way would be greatly appreciated, even if they are rehashed.
  • #23,068
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:55pm Sep 16, 2010 4:55pm
The pair is gradually going down, finally. but I would have to describe it as oozing down rather than use any other term. At this rate, it will get to the area of .8000 around the middle of next year or so
  • #23,069
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:13pm Sep 16, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting moonchild
The pair is gradually going down, finally. but I would have to describe it as oozing down rather than use any other term. At this rate, it will get to the area of .8000 around the middle of next year or so
Have you noticed that all seem to be playing from the short side?
Alarm bells punters.. Alarm bells..
Need some negative news or there will be a slow grind upward to take out the shorts..
  • #23,070
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:35pm Sep 16, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting lasty
Have you noticed that all seem to be playing from the short side?
Alarm bells punters.. Alarm bells..
Need some negative news or there will be a slow grind upward to take out the shorts..
Here's why I'm short.
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #23,071
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:45pm Sep 16, 2010 5:45pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
That's really what it's all about. What's going to bring the dow up, or down. I read an briefing on RBA's website yesterday. They agree the price movements in AUD are heavily correlated with Dow.

Personally, I'm on the fence on this one. Fundamentally, things don't look good at all. But people are tired of the 'world is coming to an end' bullshit, and everyone needs a house to live in, and apparently a job to go to. So maybe they'll stop smoking weed and and playing PS3 and get on with life. I dunno. Any fundamentals to convince either way would...

Fundamentally, well, there is a couple of risk events going on tomorrow, US AM. Technically, regarding US equities you'll notice the obvious resistance zone we are encountering now. Looks bearish to me, major resistance which we gapped up to on 9/13, then the rejection on 9/14, now we have what looks like a hanging man candle. All points down to me for US equities (I perfer to look at sp500 over DJI, DJI did get rejected at 10600 late in the session though). Tomorrow could get messy, its the last 3rd Friday. of the quarter as well.

I'm going to hold my short from earlier in the week for now, I'm averaged in at just over 94, if we get movement down in US equities tomorrow we could see some pretty steep losses in this pair, I'd be happy to get out of the market at .9230. Time will tell though.
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This is what awesome feels like
  • #23,072
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:12pm Sep 16, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Here's why I'm short.
Thats why everyone else is too ;-)
  • #23,073
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:45pm Sep 16, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting lasty
Thats why everyone else is too ;-)
http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/4/4_1_213.gif You spoke too soon! Looks like we are going to get another run up. Could go right back up to the highs. My S/L is B/E +10.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #23,074
  • Sep 16, 2010 6:55pm Sep 16, 2010 6:55pm
I'm still short and in the red. Some resistance at ~0.9390 level. I agree we may be in for another run-up but I seriously hope not.
  • #23,075
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:01pm Sep 16, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
I'm still short and in the red. Some resistance at ~0.9390 level. I agree we may be in for another run-up but I seriously hope not.
Ya, Weekly R2 and Daily S1. Time for bed.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #23,076
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:37pm Sep 16, 2010 7:37pm
Yes, on a day-trading basis I could understand holding a short position. Based on some charts I could see AUD trending between .90 and .94 for a month or two. Assuming everyone's sentiment regarding QE comes to fruition, we might see QE in November which could push AUD above .94 and keep it there.

I think one thing we can all agree on is that Bernanke will QE, aka capitulate if the need arises, and this would either sustain the Dow or move it upward. So even barring all negative indicators, that is the primary action that would please Wall Street and keep prices stable and rising.

In the short term however, those indicators Bud is talking about could bring us down, but I certainly don't see any reason for it going below .90 any time soon.

Some had mentioned a 30 pip movement in a recent post. A 30 pip movement is nothing. in a 24hr period. The AUDUSD can be a volatile pair with significant news moving it as much as 200 pips easy. I'd be putting stops in 100 pips away from entry. IMHO, 50 pips is a real tight stop position.
  • #23,077
  • Sep 16, 2010 8:20pm Sep 16, 2010 8:20pm
Looks like it shot right past 93.90 area and its bouncing off resistance at 94.15 area. It's got some momentum. Still committed to my premature short
  • #23,078
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:03pm Sep 16, 2010 9:03pm
now it should be the time to short audusd....

good luck and happy weekend all
  • #23,079
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:36pm Sep 16, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting grashid
now it should be the time to short audusd....

good luck and happy weekend all
I hope so.


AUD/USD making moves right now, price at 0.9440.
  • #23,080
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:16pm Sep 16, 2010 10:16pm
.9450 looks like a top for the session. Hopefully will see a drop so I can buy it low for the weekend. No open trades for now. Good luck everyone.
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