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AUD/USD

  • #23,021
  • Sep 15, 2010 8:03am Sep 15, 2010 8:03am
The Lower Trendline defended so far so well
  • #23,022
  • Sep 15, 2010 8:06am Sep 15, 2010 8:06am
Thought I would add another perspective.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au2.jpg Size: 94 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #23,023
  • Sep 15, 2010 5:31pm Sep 15, 2010 5:31pm
Interesting spike occured a few mins ago. Anyways, I'm looking at this pair with a short bias, have already been stopped out on some previous shorts from last week, perhaps now I'll have made a profitable trade?

Interesting note on the SP500 (I mention it due to the correlation), obviously it gapped up a few days ago, however, it gapped up into resistance around 1130. Also, it appeared (could just be my eyes) that late strength in US equities didn't really effect this pair as much as it has been.

I'm pairing that with what seems to me to be an unreasonably high aud/usd (fundamentaly) and what could have been the end of wave 5 in the 5 wave move up from .81ish.

Short for now, time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9_15sp500.JPG Size: 58 KB
This is what awesome feels like
  • #23,024
  • Sep 15, 2010 6:20pm Sep 15, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting BudFox
Interesting spike occured a few mins ago. Anyways, I'm looking at this pair with a short bias, have already been stopped out on some previous shorts from last week, perhaps now I'll have made a profitable trade?

Interesting note on the SP500 (I mention it due to the correlation), obviously it gapped up a few days ago, however, it gapped up into resistance around 1130. Also, it appeared (could just be my eyes) that late strength in US equities didn't really effect this pair as much as it has been.

I'm pairing that with what seems to me to be...

I believe the spike had to do with dovish comments from New Zealand post Rate Decision. I'm short bias too, but debating with myself whether to short at a retest of .9450, or to wait.
"If it was good enough for Gann, it's good enough for me..."
  • #23,025
  • Sep 15, 2010 6:21pm Sep 15, 2010 6:21pm
How long will it take for that gap to close?
Dr. C
  • #23,026
  • Sep 15, 2010 6:58pm Sep 15, 2010 6:58pm
A standard Aussie bank account is earning 6%. That is not a CD, or term deposit, that's a cash account. With Labor in place, the sentiment is for rates to go higher, so fundamentally there is an upside.

Assuming Aussies can keep exporting commodities at the current exchange rates and higher, then there's no incentive for the current government to push the rate downward.

And how would they do that anyway? If they want to cool the economy they have to raise rates and induce savings, which are already relatively very high compared with other countries.

The downside IMHO comes from risk on Wall Street. The risks are not the same as 2008. The big problem I see on Wall Street is a complete lack of faith. If you look beyond most charts, historically, the AUD lows of .55 and .63 in this past decade were flukes, not the norms.

I'm beginning to agree with Domino on this. This may go above parity for a while.
  • #23,027
  • Sep 15, 2010 10:33pm Sep 15, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
A standard Aussie bank account is earning 6%. That is not a CD, or term deposit, that's a cash account. With Labor in place, the sentiment is for rates to go higher, so fundamentally there is an upside.

Assuming Aussies can keep exporting commodities at the current exchange rates and higher, then there's no incentive for the current government to push the rate downward.

And how would they do that anyway? If they want to cool the economy they have to raise rates and induce savings, which are already relatively very high compared with other...
I am going to have to disagree. I recently moved to Brisbane to get my MBA at UQ and have to say that Australia is easily the most expensive place in the entire world to live. Purchasing power parity should be the same for the exact same item taking into consideration the exchange rate and that is no where near the case in Australia compared to the US dollar. This spans the gamut from food to clothing to homes. Taking into consideration farm subsidies in the states and increasing immigration affecting home prices in Aust. it still makes no sense. $2.5 12oz canned cokes in Aust and .50 cents in the US, $225 Nike running shoes vs. the same shoe $150, laptop computers selling for nearly 50% more in Aust. for the exact same thing in the states. Not to mention real estate median home prices in the $600k range and $200k in the US.

I know people will use the rebuttal that Aust. does not have near the population and cannot achieve the same economies of scale and that transportation once in the country is much higher. However, I am going to continue to short every up tick.

Good luck to all.
  • #23,028
  • Sep 15, 2010 10:59pm Sep 15, 2010 10:59pm
I think 6% rate means inflation is really high and your savings worth less and less. Let us say I can buy a can of coke for 1 dollar today. In 5 years I will have to pay 1.5 dollars because the price is up 6 percent each year. In the long term, the exchange rate should drop because of the faster devaluation of aud? I do not understand economics. Someone please enlighten me.
  • #23,029
  • Sep 15, 2010 10:59pm Sep 15, 2010 10:59pm
Quoting usapgapro
I am going to have to disagree. I recently moved to Brisbane to get my MBA at UQ and have to say that Australia is easily the most expensive place in the entire world to live. Purchasing power parity should be the same for the exact same item taking into consideration the exchange rate and that is no where near the case in Australia compared to the US dollar. This spans the gamut from food to clothing to homes. Taking into consideration farm subsidies in the states and increasing immigration affecting home prices in Aust. it still makes no sense....
the year is 2150 the economies merge together to create one unified world ... but mars has been colonized due to advanced technology and is unified under its own leadership.. the population of mars wants to buy sneakers that are made on earth... that costs 99 dollars to buy on earth.. for mars to get those sneakers they have to be taken to a loading dock.. feul a space ship.. loaded onto the space ship.. flown to mars.. and unloaded at another loading dock and then distributed to retail stores... mars taxes the crap out of the sneaker company on top of the huge cost to ship the sneakers to mars.. 100$ transportation and tax cost later should the sneaker company still charge 99$ and eventually fail because people on mars deserves sneakers from earth for the same price? meh australia is an island ... think about the transportation .. man power .. feul.. equipment cost and taxation before those sneakers get to you.. you still deserve usa sneakers at usa cost?

and because the cost is high because of these things... the value of the currency should drop?

i bet if you bought some aussy sneakers they wouldnt cost so much .... but wouldnt be name brand i guess and you wouldnt be as cool as wearing nike sneakers... kinda like jeans in south korea.
  • #23,030
  • Sep 16, 2010 12:14am Sep 16, 2010 12:14am
closed long moved to no position no plan to short. failing at resistance wave patterns indicate temporary reversal..
  • #23,031
  • Sep 16, 2010 1:05am Sep 16, 2010 1:05am
AUD is going to parity and beyond.
Sure things are more expensive in Australia but hey they are cheaper in Vietnam ( where those Nikesare made), so with a strong AUD and a holiday you can buy as many pairs for under $100 as you like ;-)
Food and clothing items vary from place to place.
Besides why not buy online and save the GST under $1000 when purchasing overseas.

Fundamentally Australia is sound and despite our political fracas we are stable and ripe for foreign investors to park their dough.
AUD Interest rates will always be higher than US to attract the capital inflow.
Get Bizzy and Buy Ozzy (on the dips)
  • #23,032
  • Sep 16, 2010 1:25am Sep 16, 2010 1:25am
Quoting lasty
Fundamentally Australia is sound and despite our political fracas we are stable and ripe for foreign investors to park their dough.
AUD Interest rates will always be higher than US to attract the capital inflow.
US might have cheaper goods than Australia thnks to unpayable debt their standard of living has created. What's Australian debt, can anyone tell me?
  • #23,033
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:18am Sep 16, 2010 2:18am
ugh i shorted at the very low.. 0.9330. since, it's spiked up in a momentous move to 0.9367..haven't touched the aud/usd in a few weeks, kinda wish i didn't put on this premature trade
  • #23,034
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:49am Sep 16, 2010 2:49am
Quoting latropsudoxe
ugh i shorted at the very low.. 0.9330. since, it's spiked up in a momentous move to 0.9367..haven't touched the aud/usd in a few weeks, kinda wish i didn't put on this premature trade
I know what you mean, I went long as it broke above the 144 ema, I'm already regretting it.
  • #23,035
  • Sep 16, 2010 3:36am Sep 16, 2010 3:36am
Some good posts on this thread. Here's how I see it:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd100916d1.gif Size: 25 KB



On the daily we broke and closed above Nov 2009 and April 2010 highs. On the daily we are in a standard up trend. The retracement to the grey circle was an exact 50% of the previous swing high.

This swing high is surely due a retracement, given the gap at .9280 (grey bar) and the support at the next grey bar which coincides with the 38 fib. For me I would be looking at price action here for a continuation long.

In the meantime I'm flat because I don't usually trade counter the daily trend. I do have a buy stop above the highest high .9450

With regard to the larger, expanding triangle, there is some excellent analysis here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=222441

Sorry this post is not much use to short term traders but I thought I'd post it anyway...
Gone to a better place
  • #23,036
  • Sep 16, 2010 3:38am Sep 16, 2010 3:38am
Quoting aussietrader
I know what you mean, I went long as it broke above the 144 ema, I'm already regretting it.
one of my rules, and should be one of everyone's rule also, is to always use stops. i had a very tiring day today and when i finally got to the office, i found out about a dinner appointment and me being anxious to get in on a trade after just watching the yen explode......i jumped in prematurely on a break of one major trendline and put no stops or limits. i sat there waiting as price kept creeping up while i kept saying "it's coming down", "i'll close out after a few more pips", etc.

man all those psychology books i've read and my list of rules i have.....

i remember one trade where i committed to after one mistake...i ended up -300 pips while i was on a business trip in singapore lol...

gotta learn.
  • #23,037
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:12am Sep 16, 2010 5:12am
Quoting latropsudoxe
ugh i shorted at the very low.. 0.9330. since, it's spiked up in a momentous move to 0.9367..haven't touched the aud/usd in a few weeks, kinda wish i didn't put on this premature trade

Hi latropsudoxe,
This is what I see on my M15 audusd:
I think we are on the way down and moving between my UTL and heading for the LTL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 16-9-10 audusd-m15.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #23,038
  • Edited 5:35am Sep 16, 2010 5:26am | Edited 5:35am
Hi,
hope every one is having a great week.

IMO AU is prepared for a break to the upside (chart 1). But I would rather sell than buy this thing. So I will be looking to sell this pair on the touch of the upper line as shown by the arrow on the second chart.

I could be wrong

Edit:
The touch on the upper trend line should be around 953X. Hey good US data can probably take us there.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud1.GIF Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud2.GIF Size: 21 KB
  • #23,039
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:37am Sep 16, 2010 10:37am
Evening star at daily?
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #23,040
  • Sep 16, 2010 11:04am Sep 16, 2010 11:04am
Possible descending triangle (not very pretty, i know). Still holding my short from two days ago, will see how PA is now that its back around 9350, a break below 9325 could bring ~9225 into play

A sell off in US equities this afternoon could help move this pair down as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9_16au.JPG Size: 48 KB
This is what awesome feels like
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