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  • #292,801
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:39am Sep 16, 2010 4:39am
sell at 1.3089 sl 1.3116 TP 1.2957 yes.low

Quoting fontu
start doing it , sl over 3126 38.2% fib & tp open ( first can be over 2913 ) to see how far it may take.wedge top 3116.
fontu
  • #292,802
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:40am Sep 16, 2010 4:40am
Quoting Naseri13
In the minds of most of us here in this forum is a coming weaker AUDUSD , a coming weaker EURUSD etc... and most will like to sell EURJPY and EURCHF... imho , there are simply too much people sitting in this boat and a little or even a big shift in sentiment could lead to 16000 EURUSD-1.1000 AUDUSD or 14500 EURJPY and 14500 EURCHF... but of course, -nobody will believe me that... lets be flexible any way- but we are positioned like my predictions since some days or weeks...
Thats interesting, you think the dollar will crash hard soon?
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #292,803
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:40am Sep 16, 2010 4:40am
Quoting 219
The red line is my future target
Be nice if it reached your target; what SL are you using for this? The upward movement seems to be slow but still moving.
Ta :-)
  • #292,804
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:42am Sep 16, 2010 4:42am
Quoting kjellik74
Seem everyone is long [...] without any major fundamental reason in my book. [...] So myself are buying puts.....
Don't do it.

* 66% are actually short (forexfactory trader sentiment) and they are usually wrong.

* USDCHF has just broken down an important support (trend line) and by the looks of this chart it will go down much further.

* Others have reported breaks of important levels in other pairs that I don't watch, so I cant show you examples.

* I see an inverted H&S on the eurusd H4 (very skewed H&S, many would not recognize it as such, I have given this pattern the name "Hunchback of Notre Dame" when I first identified it, it is very strong.

* My autocorrelation analysis suggests that we have the same autocorrelations in place that we had during the whole year 2009, they were only absent during the time between novenber 2009 and the flash crash earlier this year and I don't see them disappearing yet. Usually they are leading a week or so.

I am long until 1.32, then I expect some bouncing and ranging and ultimately a target of 1.4545 should this hunchback pattern complete.
  • #292,805
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:44am Sep 16, 2010 4:44am
Quoting Lorna
Be nice if it reached your target; what SL are you using for this? The upward movement seems to be slow but still moving.
Ta :-)

Not quet sure yeat still thinking and analyzing
  • #292,806
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:50am Sep 16, 2010 4:50am
At 1.3092 I expect a retracement to at least 1.3062, perhaps 1.3031, then up to 1.3123.
Murrey Math on every TF + Divergences on higher TFs
  • #292,807
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:55am Sep 16, 2010 4:55am
Quoting 219
Not quet sure yeat still thinking and analyzing
Good luck, to us all http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif
  • #292,808
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:56am Sep 16, 2010 4:56am
PivotsEUR/USD

Res 31.3127
Res 21.3081
Res 11.3047

Pivot1.3001

Sup 11.2967
Sup 21.2921
Sup 31.2887
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #292,809
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:56am Sep 16, 2010 4:56am
Quoting 7bit
Don't do it.

* 66% are actually short (forexfactory trader sentiment) and they are usually wrong.

* USDCHF has just broken down an important support (trend line) and by the looks of this chart it will go down much further.

* Others have reported breaks of important levels in other pairs that I don't watch, so I cant show you examples.

* I see an inverted H&S on the eurusd H4 (very skewed H&S, many would not recognize it as such, I have given this pattern the name "Hunchback of Notre Dame" when I first identified it, it is very strong.

*...
It is strange to see different views, someone see 1,10 and some see 1,45 in the near future, forex is a difficult market to predict that's for sure. Thanks for the comments, you have some valid points but i.e. I don't see the usd/chf as a reliable pair to compare to eur/usd, as both can be considered as so called "safe haven" currencies, and the euro is not. I also fail to see you inverted head and shoulder. In any case we all trade different style, I have burnt myself being wrong before so this is why I now use options only.
Kjellik74
  • #292,810
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:56am Sep 16, 2010 4:56am
Quoting aman4forex
sell at 1.3089 sl 1.3116 TP 1.2957 yes.low
wish you good luck but as anti-trend should give more space to play , mine now reset 3145, will bring at be when movements in favour . not want sl hit so often.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #292,811
  • Sep 16, 2010 4:57am Sep 16, 2010 4:57am
Quoting 7bit
Don't do it.

* 66% are actually short (forexfactory trader sentiment) and they are usually wrong.
Also this from FXCM retail accounts.

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.59 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.59 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.1% lower than yesterday and 23.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.2% higher than yesterday and 30.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.1% stronger than yesterday and 97.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.
  • #292,812
  • Edited 5:02am Sep 16, 2010 4:57am | Edited 5:02am
Quoting 7bit
Don't do it.

* 66% are actually short (forexfactory trader sentiment) and they are usually wrong.

* USDCHF has just broken down an important support (trend line) and by the looks of this chart it will go down much further.

* Others have reported breaks of important levels in other pairs that I don't watch, so I cant show you examples.

* I see an inverted H&S on the eurusd H4 (very skewed H&S, many would not recognize it as such, I have given this pattern the name "Hunchback of Notre Dame" when I first identified it, it is very strong.

*...
Good thoughts. Should the SNB raise the libor rate by 25 bps most of the things you are describing could happen real soon, but I am having tremendous difficulties believing that they are ready to raise.

Well, we'll see in two hours.
  • #292,813
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:01am Sep 16, 2010 5:01am
Quoting zaphy
Good thoughts. Should the SNB raise the libor rate by 25 bps most of the things you are describing could happen real soon, but I am having tremendous difficulties believing that they are ready to raise.

Well, we'll see in two minutes.
you're a couple hours early there zaph
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #292,814
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:02am Sep 16, 2010 5:02am
Quoting kjellik74
I also fail to see you inverted head and shoulder.
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  • #292,815
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:02am Sep 16, 2010 5:02am
I've been (I'll be) on the sidelines with this pair since the break. IMO, the daily chart TA is very clear after the last moves. Sadly i didn't plan that break in advance and I don't like chasing even though the potential up is still very healthy.

Good luck and congratulation to all riding this nice move.

sisse
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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #292,816
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:06am Sep 16, 2010 5:06am
Quoting The Fool
you're a couple hours early there zaph
I'm in Tehran, two hours ahead .

PS. Before anyone asks, no I am not in Tehran, just mixed up the timing of the CBI industrial order expectations with the SNB. What a bummer though!
  • #292,817
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:08am Sep 16, 2010 5:08am
Quoting Mikispag
At 1.3092 I expect a retracement to at least 1.3062, perhaps 1.3031, then up to 1.3123.
If the price closes below 20 EMA on 5m TF i may consider a short scalp
  • #292,818
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:09am Sep 16, 2010 5:09am
Quoting 7bit
Attachment
I see what you mean with skewed (-: But yes you can make a inverted h&s out of it. In any case, on a inverted h&s a downward sloping neckline signals continuing weakness and is less reliable then a upward sloping neckline. So I would not trust this one to much.
Kjellik74
  • #292,819
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:14am Sep 16, 2010 5:14am
Quoting Mikispag

You using MM levels too, right?
Nope, only a naked charts with support/resistance level and PA analysis.
Kinda precise
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #292,820
  • Edited 5:30am Sep 16, 2010 5:15am | Edited 5:30am
Quoting T@rantula
If the price closes below 20 EMA on 5m TF i may consider a short scalp
PA is very bullish, though.

Quoting kuroro001
Nope, only a naked charts with support/resistance level and PA analysis.
Kinda precise
It's great when different strategies agree on levels .
Murrey Math on every TF + Divergences on higher TFs
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