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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #18,721
  • Sep 15, 2010 11:42am Sep 15, 2010 11:42am
Quoting Forexia
It's just so amazing that after all those actions last night, today, the pair barely moved a millimeter in the NA session.

Hello! Calling for traders!! Is there a trader in the house?
I'm not trading this or any yen pair, at least for the rest of the week maybe for the rest of the month. I should have kept my long position yesterday on AUDJPY but I didn't and I'm not opening a new one.
  • #18,722
  • Sep 15, 2010 11:42am Sep 15, 2010 11:42am
Quoting Forexia
It's just so amazing that after all those actions last night, today, the pair barely moved a millimeter in the NA session.

Hello! Calling for traders!! Is there a trader in the house?
i suppose everyone is is shell-shocked or very cautious and numb to move .....

" which way will it move ? ... better not guess ... wait on the sidelines .... when in doubt , don't push the button ...preserve capital ..err on the side of caution ... etc " ... probably some of the thoughts going thru the mind ....
  • #18,723
  • Sep 15, 2010 11:42am Sep 15, 2010 11:42am
Quoting Forexia
It's just so amazing that after all those actions last night, today, the pair barely moved a millimeter in the NA session.

It hasn't gone down either though.
  • #18,724
  • Sep 15, 2010 11:49am Sep 15, 2010 11:49am
Quoting TheArcher
i suppose everyone is is shell-shocked or very cautious and numb to move .....

" which way will it move ? ... better not guess ... wait on the sidelines .... when in doubt , don't push the button ...preserve capital ..err on the side of caution ... etc " ... probably some of the thoughts going thru the mind ....
But I thought we are the unimportant tiny minority. What happened to those BIG SHOTS Institutional traders? Don't they have to trade for their banks for their banks' day-to-day transactions? This is their daily volume? This is it?
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,725
  • Sep 15, 2010 11:52am Sep 15, 2010 11:52am
ok .

how about some chart reading ..

the immediate resistance is at 85.89

macd is maxed and shows losing momentum

osma (macd histogram) looks bearish and might cross zero line

will there be a reversal ....?

or will range for sometime and then blast off again ... ?

Attached Image
  • #18,726
  • Sep 15, 2010 11:56am Sep 15, 2010 11:56am
Quoting Forexia
But I thought we are the unimportant tiny minority. What happened to those BIG SHOTS Institutional traders? Don't they have to trade for their banks for their banks' day-to-day transactions? This is their daily volume? This is it?
probably they are doing their sums now ... perhaps they too did not expect the intervention today ... so they are taking stock of the situation and sizing up before they enter the arena ...

  • #18,727
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:01pm Sep 15, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting TheArcher
probably they are doing their sums now ... perhaps they too did not expect the intervention today ... so they are taking stock of the situation and sizing up before they enter the arena ...

Ok. I wil wait until they enter the arena and then we shall see. Right now, we can't really read much from the charts because there is not much to read. The prices only moved 2 -3 bps in the last 4 hours and that's supposedly the busiest trading hours during the NA session.

We will wait. Just surprised that without any speculative actions, this is the daily volume and movement of Institutional players in the Forex market.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,728
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:01pm Sep 15, 2010 12:01pm
I can't see them not getting involved if it wants to drop below 85. They didn't intervene just to see the price head back down in any significant manner so soon. There will be pullbacks but over the next couple of weeks I think the overall trend will be up.

Keep in mind that I have no friggin idea about what I am talking about so take it with a grain of salt.
  • #18,729
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:12pm Sep 15, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting Astroman
I can't see them not getting involved if it wants to drop below 85. They didn't intervene just to see the price head back down in any significant manner so soon. There will be pullbacks but over the next couple of weeks I think the overall trend will be up.

Keep in mind that I have no friggin idea about what I am talking about so take it with a grain of salt.
I agree with you, i think BOJ want to see if the trend is still bullish.... The target is around 90, that is quite ideal for export...
Currency speculators do not dare to sell UJ for some time.
  • #18,730
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:25pm Sep 15, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting Hugo Boss
I agree with you, i think BOJ want to see if the trend is still bullish.... The target is around 90, that is quite ideal for export...
Yes, at least to 90. Think they will try for 92+ (whether that is attainable or not is another story) according to this:

Quote
It’s “pretty unlikely” officials will be able to return the yen to the level “that companies are basing their profit forecasts” on, Nishioka at RBS Securities said. Firms said they remain profitable as long as the yen trades at 92.90 per dollar or weaker, according to the Cabinet Office’s annual report released in February.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-recovery.html
  • #18,731
  • Sep 15, 2010 1:00pm Sep 15, 2010 1:00pm
"A surprise attack" -- a quote from Nikkei newspaper (equivalent to Wall Street Journal in Japan).

Also quoting from Nikkei...
The JP gov threw $2.3B in the market yesterday. JP gov did not use brokers for the intervention to prevent the rumors among brokers. JP keeps intervening tomorrow if needed. For the last intervention in 2004, JP gov spent $33B in total.

Here is interesting parts...
This is a JP gov's sole intervention. JP gov has been negotiating with other countries so that no other gov comes against the JP's intervention. Other counties are not willing to intervene the market anyway, even though they were when the last intervention in 2004.

Nikkei's take
It is very unclear if JP gov can succeed in this intervention because there is no backup from other countries. This is a war between JP gov and the market. The first round seems the JP gov's win due to the "surprise attack."

My take
The market will never lose no matter what the gov does because the market plays with their own money while the gov plays with somebody else's money (namely tax money). The hedge funds will suck up all the money the JP gov put in after all....
  • #18,732
  • Sep 15, 2010 1:14pm Sep 15, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting Leche Mocha
I would be very wary of trying to short the U/J right after an invention has started.
i agree 100%. If BOJ really intervening they are waiitng till the low volume zone between close of US markets and start china. This is when they may make their next move. This time will make sure that they can overcome any opposition to their buying uj

all down moves have been on very low volume. 85.75 is resis on daily with 86.50 and 87.50 resistance levels above that . I would not be surprised to see another 200 pip pop to 87.50 if boj is really intervening
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,733
  • Sep 15, 2010 1:15pm Sep 15, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting Forexia
It's just so amazing that after all those actions last night, today, the pair barely moved a millimeter in the NA session.

Hello! Calling for traders!! Is there a trader in the house?
no selling pressure at all on UJ , suggests further up moves to come. Do not jump in fornt of the fast moving train.. it hurts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,734
  • Sep 15, 2010 1:45pm Sep 15, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting malcolmb14
no selling pressure at all on UJ , suggests further up moves to come. Do not jump in fornt of the fast moving train.. it hurts
Ok Ok, I won't. I am waiting just like everyone else. Just surprised at the super low volume today.

This sounds like a "Yen trading" intervention: Don't do it! Don't throw away your account money like this! You have a whole trading career ahead of you!

Warms my heart that you guys care about another fellow trader this much *sniff sniff*
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,735
  • Sep 15, 2010 3:24pm Sep 15, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting Forexia
Ok Ok, I won't. I am waiting just like everyone else. Just surprised at the super low volume today.

This sounds like a "Yen trading" intervention: Don't do it! Don't throw away your account money like this! You have a whole trading career ahead of you!

Warms my heart that you guys care about another fellow trader this much *sniff sniff*
just the fact that uj ramps up what 250 pips plus and then moves in a tight 25 pip channel for hours now suggests that is is just having a tea break ...lol....

there seems to be no sell interest at all right now and any slight dips wait for an up move that ends on a lower high on a 15 before tkaing any sell positions.

picking tops when boj or swiss bank are intervening is suicide .... your mini lot against their billions ... who will win ...lol

if you are unsure if boj is really intervening then trade something else for a few days and let the dust settle. GU has been pretty noce and the daily is coming off a strong rounded bottom ,
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #18,736
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:00pm Sep 15, 2010 4:00pm
Pivots USD/JPY
Res 3 89.50
Res 2 87.64
Res 1 86.61
Pivot 84.75
Sup 1 83.72
Sup 2 81.86
Sup 3 80.83
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #18,737
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:11pm Sep 15, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting malcolmb14
just the fact that uj ramps up what 250 pips plus and then moves in a tight 25 pip channel for hours now suggests that is is just having a tea break ...lol....
,
LOOOOOOL , I really like those words , one word rules now BUY BUY BUY BUY
  • #18,738
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:27pm Sep 15, 2010 4:27pm
Does anyone else think this looks ready to go any minute now, or am I jumping the gun? Hmm... If it were a stock I'd load the boat, but forex can be deceiving sometimes... LOL

http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i1...t/USDJPY-2.jpg
Get money, don't let money get you. @kauaiforex
  • #18,739
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:46pm Sep 15, 2010 4:46pm
C'mon! Wake up, Toyko traders! Rise and shine!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,740
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:55pm Sep 15, 2010 4:55pm
Again, it is very unclear that JP yen goes up or down as Nikkei newspaper wrote.

According to Nikkei:

UP: JP gov keeps injecting the money until the price satisfies them.

Down: Europe and the US don't do anything about it, wanting their currency prices low so that their exporting does good. This case, yen may start going down two weeks from now. Also, Europe and the US don't want to back up the JP gov, wanting Chinese to stop manipulating the currency. It is not fair if they encourage the JP gov to intervene the market.

Interesting, eh?
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