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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #18,661
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:15pm Sep 14, 2010 10:15pm
i think that once the 4H upper trendline be taked, a lot of buy orders will be in play, so maybe price continues its spike..be careful to taking any sell atm
  • #18,662
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:19pm Sep 14, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting mfoste1
its very likely that uj will be very very volatile esp if risk aversion mode goes into effect in the next couple weeks......just trade other pairs man instead of yen crosses. theyre hard enough to trade when boj isnt in the picture
That's super awesome!!! Volatility is what produces the pips!! Just make sure you set up tight stops, reverse and go with the flow quickly when the price goes the other way and it will be fine. We can't just let one intervention stop our trading; trading is our business, our livelihood. 100+ pips move like tonight was nothing just 2 years ago and we didn't stop trading then. It's only after the global financial crisis that the market is making baby 20, 30+ pips.

I was just bitching the other day about the market being in a coma even after Labour Day, thank God the market is finally waking up!

Enjoy your rides and good trading!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,663
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:35pm Sep 14, 2010 10:35pm
Looks like 85.00 is a resistance. Let's see if BoJ has enough ammunition to take out that target.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,664
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:43pm Sep 14, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting Forexia
Looks like 85.00 is a resistance. Let's see if BoJ has enough ammunition to take out that target.
85 will be taken out today.
We may see 90 cents in the coming weeks.

Playing on the pip level is really hard.
It is better to think of cent, which is the minimum unit of real money.
  • #18,665
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:50pm Sep 14, 2010 10:50pm
Quoting mry2001
85 will be taken out today.
We may see 90 cents in the coming weeks.

Playing on the pip level is really hard.
It is better to think of cent, which is the minimum unit of real money.
Well, if the market continues to move in this magnitude, I might consider upgrading my unit of measure although pips have more digits so it looks a lot better
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,666
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:50pm Sep 14, 2010 10:50pm
Quoting mry2001
85 will be taken out today.
We may see 90 cents in the coming weeks.

Playing on the pip level is really hard.
It is better to think of cent, which is the minimum unit of real money.
It will be broken in few minutes.
  • #18,667
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:54pm Sep 14, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting ttoony
It will be broken in few minutes.
Yup! This is exciting!! It's like watching the New Year's ball drop in New York's Time Square!!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,668
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:56pm Sep 14, 2010 10:56pm
Quoting Forexia
Yup! This is exciting!! It's like watching the New Year's ball drop in New York's Time Square!!!
Almost the same.
I believe BOJ did intervention because they want at least 85, so they finish their job..
  • #18,669
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:05pm Sep 14, 2010 11:05pm
its allready 150 pips over from 82.98 today. and there still no sign of reversal for me.
  • #18,670
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:07pm Sep 14, 2010 11:07pm
what an intervention by BOJ today
  • #18,671
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:09pm Sep 14, 2010 11:09pm
Quoting Forexia
Yup! This is exciting!! It's like watching the New Year's ball drop in New York's Time Square!!!
It's interesting, that's for sure....I don't know if 'exciting' is a word I would have chosen.

Anyway, we know from the spanking that SNB got after their solo intervention attempts earlier in the year, that this type of intervention (mostly) doesn't work. I don't think 85 will be good enough to help Japans exporters a hell of a lot.....I think they would like something above 88 to make a real difference.

So, imo the risk for BOJ s to sit back and hope that their 200-300 billion intervention doesn't just vanish in a flurry of usd/jpy selling......or spend up large and push this thing up another 300 pips, and hope that it sticks.

It's too dangerous to enter either way at the moment, but I'm mindful of the spanking that SNB got!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,672
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:15pm Sep 14, 2010 11:15pm
What do you think?
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  • #18,673
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:17pm Sep 14, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting realjumper
It's interesting, that's for sure....I don't know if 'exciting' is a word I would have chosen.

Anyway, we know from the spanking that SNB got after their solo intervention attempts earlier in the year, that this type of intervention (mostly) doesn't work. I don't think 85 will be good enough to help Japans exporters a hell of a lot.....I think they would like something above 88 to make a real difference.

So, imo the risk for BOJ s to sit back and hope that their 200-300 billion intervention doesn't just vanish in a flurry of usd/jpy selling......or...
i was very agree with you, if the intervention only lift the USD/JPY to 85 then this intervention can be considered fail. it's not enoug, Companies are still yelling even if the USD/JPY is at 85.
  • #18,674
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:21pm Sep 14, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting Forexia
I was just bitching the other day about the market being in a coma even after Labour Day, thank God the market is finally waking up!

Enjoy your rides and good trading!
LOL! My partner and I was just talking about how the market felt soft and full of scalpers and that we don't seem big moves like this anymore. However this move would have felt more legitimate if it wasn't caused by intervention...This throws all technicals out the window for a while.
  • #18,675
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:30pm Sep 14, 2010 11:30pm
85.00 Broken!!! This is not just another level broken; this is History in the making!

See this is why I LOVE Forex Trading, you get to be part of History of the world. Tomorrow, this is going to be all over the news all around the world and you would've been part of it. If you have traded in any "JPY" pairs, you have lived through that History while it was being made. Instead of like everyone else who's gonna read about it tomorrow from Yahoo! news or Reuters or on the newspaper, you were in it!

This is good stuff!! Sorry about rambling on.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,676
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:30pm Sep 14, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting yeri
i was very agree with you, if the intervention only lift the USD/JPY to 85 then this intervention can be considered fail. it's not enoug, Companies are still yelling even if the USD/JPY is at 85.
F.M Noda promised to take "bold action" including further intervention. It is also being reported that he contacted other nations to step in against the currency as well but there is no reports on how they responded to his request.

I don't think this nice little run up is going to end anytime in the near future. Think it will close Friday near the weekly high, wherever that might be.
  • #18,677
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:33pm Sep 14, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting Forexia
85.00 Broken!!!...

you know this isnt the first time BOJ has down intervention? they did it in 1997, 1998, and 2004 ...
  • #18,678
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:39pm Sep 14, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting realjumper
It's interesting, that's for sure....I don't know if 'exciting' is a word I would have chosen.

Anyway, we know from the spanking that SNB got after their solo intervention attempts earlier in the year, that this type of intervention (mostly) doesn't work. I don't think 85 will be good enough to help Japans exporters a hell of a lot.....I think they would like something above 88 to make a real difference.

So, imo the risk for BOJ s to sit back and hope that their 200-300 billion intervention doesn't just vanish in a flurry of usd/jpy selling......or...
Well, any economists will tell you, Forex intervention never works. It becomes a wash in the long run because other factors like interest rates, purchasing power, inflation rate would eventually adjust for the change in the Forex rate (Macroeconomics 201). The only thing that permanently helps the exporters is the quality of their products and their marketing efforts and consumer tastes.

The only things that Forex interventions ever achieves are:

1) Exporting inflations to other countries

2) Creating lucrative trading opportunities for Forex traders like us

It's too bad those Central Bankers just refuse to understand this again and again and again. Oh well, more $$ for me!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #18,679
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:48pm Sep 14, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting Astroman
F.M Noda promised to take "bold action" including further intervention. It is also being reported that he contacted other nations to step in against the currency as well but there is no reports on how they responded to his request.

I don't think this nice little run up is going to end anytime in the near future. Think it will close Friday near the weekly high, wherever that might be.
i believe the same thing as you are right now. and we're all waiting for the next step of intervention. since this is only the start. when i write this this pair already touch the 85.12
  • #18,680
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:57pm Sep 14, 2010 11:57pm
Quoting TheArcher
i am bit lost with all that rhetorics .....

what is Naoto Kan's stand on the Yen ... ? which direction is he looking at ... ?

wow !

question answered !!



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