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EURUSD

  • #292,121
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:40pm Sep 14, 2010 2:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
was your crystal ball broke?..hell you are in the minority.. many others had on their charts china was gonna blow a hole in the usd. long before it happened. at least it seems that way now. the really good ones had china and qe news before it happened.. my news feed sucks.

remember that big number 3055?.....it shows up again, Im not on my comp but draw the all time fib(3055 is the 38, and a tl from 5137 to 3334) the confluence of these numbers is perfect at 3050-5

Ill be short from there
  • #292,122
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:41pm Sep 14, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting malcolmb14
not much time value on a 30 day put ... it will drop pretty quickly

better off to get 60 days out or more and spend the additional $$$ for the time value
Alot of movement can occur in 30 days Malcomb. Of course I can mange the trade since it is European style Options and I can exit the trade right now or in an hour or whenever if need be. If prices were to move to 1.33 by tomorrow I would only lose about 100 pips. This provides me more protection than spot with unlimited profit potential. Basically If we see a bounce I think we will see it this week or a stall beginning to build on the S&P. I don't think its something I need to hold too long. It's just 150 pips. If I "spend the additional $$$" for the time value I am putting more money at risk. This isn't a position I am married too. But I can Let the position move 150 pips against me and only lose 50 pips of profit and my losses are capped at 150. If I exit for a loss I will be exiting this week
  • #292,123
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:44pm Sep 14, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
.
if it gets its drink.. it may like 29971 to get to 2961.. for a little pullback.. im looking for respect at 2981..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #292,124
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:46pm Sep 14, 2010 2:46pm
Quoting Maxsmart
my thoughts as well. I'm buying a put with a 30 day expiration. Its only 150 pips @ 1.3050. If we do indeed break out of the S&P range and the EUR/USD breaks above 1.31 I should have plenty of time value to sell it back and not lose more than 50-60 pips and if we bounce off of resistance off of the DOW and S&P and that translates into a down move on the eur/usd I will be targeting 1.2630 at least to gain at least 270 pips or more.
I am also thinking about buying put options, as I see a huge drop in this pair in the next couple of months, perhaps all the way below 1.20. Where Maxsmart do you get 30day in the money 1,3050 put options for 150 pips? I am using saxobank, and have to pay 186 pips for a similar put and 266 pips for a 60 day put, which is quite expensive !
Kjellik74
  • #292,125
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:50pm Sep 14, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting kjellik74
I am also thinking about buying put options, as I see a huge drop in this pair in the next couple of months, perhaps all the way below 1.20. Where Maxsmart do you get 30day in the money 1,3050 put options for 150 pips? I am using saxobank, and have to pay 186 pips for a similar put and 266 pips for a 60 day put, which is quite expensive !
Ikon Global Markets www.ikongm.com
  • #292,126
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:50pm Sep 14, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting cagriguler
@1.2858 TP:1.2800 SL:1.2890

US data good
What happened? I was following your trades. was pretty good. never mind we all have bad trades so now and then. Have a good one. And many pips the coming period :-)
  • #292,127
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:52pm Sep 14, 2010 2:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
was your crystal ball broke?..hell you are in the minority.. many others had on their charts china was gonna blow a hole in the usd. long before it happened. at least it seems that way now. the really good ones had china and qe news before it happened.. my news feed sucks.

Gator, but in China doing that, aren't they shooting themselves in the foot since they hold so much in USD?
I'm trying to make sense of the fundamentals but the only thing I can come up with is to temporarily take advantage of the "cheap euros" .

Any help is welcome.
If only I knew then what I know now...
  • #292,128
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:52pm Sep 14, 2010 2:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
if it gets its drink.. it may like 29971 to get to 2961.. for a little pullback.. im looking for respect at 2981..
i myself doubt the drink, due to all this speculative shit brought to the masses.
as i stated earlier, if 30542 doesn't decently bounce, i can honestly state that i suck at analysis.
  • #292,129
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:53pm Sep 14, 2010 2:53pm
I think that it is risky to stay married to a long USD position right now but a put can act as a nice hedge if you are going long or depending on your trading style. I usually look for at least 200 pips a trade so risking 50-60 pips is no problem since we are at resistance on the DJI

Note to Malcomb: I thought you said September would be easy and we would just be selling the rallies on the EUR/USD down to 1.20 lol...I wish it was still that easy.
  • #292,130
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:00pm Sep 14, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting Maxsmart
Ikon Global Markets www.ikongm.com
Thks I will check out their demo as I am also using options a lot, but have not been to happy with the pricing from Saxobank. Are you happy with the spread on the options from Ikongm? With Saxo it varies from 10 to 25 pips.....
Kjellik74
  • #292,131
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:01pm Sep 14, 2010 3:01pm
My view
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  • #292,132
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:03pm Sep 14, 2010 3:03pm
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39177318/?GT1=43001
  • #292,133
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:06pm Sep 14, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting Masrim
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39177318/?GT1=43001
Been following that story. Now police are saying they are carrying out a routine check to see if there was a real threat or not. Looks like it could just blow over. Worth keeping an eye on though!
  • #292,134
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:07pm Sep 14, 2010 3:07pm
Quoting enterfx
S&P bulls loosing steam. we may get a close in the red today or tomorrow. also we may have a bear wedge developing on EU, but too early to say. looks a little strange atm.

Dow and S&P closed into the red. Now lets see what's in store for the next days... will eu resume its main trend?
  • #292,135
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:08pm Sep 14, 2010 3:08pm
Please watch that 1.3024 , It could be a potential retesting target.
  • #292,136
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:09pm Sep 14, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting mfoste1
remember that big number 3055?.....it shows up again, Im not on my comp but draw the all time fib(3055 is the 38, and a tl from 5137 to 3334) the confluence of these numbers is perfect at 3050-5

Ill be short from there
me 2.. but not getting there makes move stronger.

usd got hit from chf pending possible rate hike.. japan's new boss not favoring intervention. china's inflation, and qe news in a short period of time. we should be much higher atm.. but we are not. we had 4 torpedoes in a short period of time. it blew past my sl 2715..
i missed most of this move cause a friggen tooth ache. im loaded on pain pills now and shouldn't be trading. but got some of the retrace both directions..

usdx has a setup on daily. but i wouldn't trade on it alone.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #292,137
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:13pm Sep 14, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting kjellik74
Thks I will check out their demo as I am also using options a lot, but have not been to happy with the pricing from Saxobank. Are you happy with the spread on the options from Ikongm? With Saxo it varies from 10 to 25 pips.....
Pretty much the same spreads. 10 on all the majors 30 on some EUR/JPY. I like the platform you can write your own custom options with your expiration date whether you want the option to expire tomorrow in a week or whenever and your own volume for buying or selling. You can even choose if you want it to expire on 4 p.m. EST or 9 a.m. EST. The huge disadvantage is the customer service. Whenever you create an option you have to do a RFQ request for quote to the dealer to get out of the option which can sometimes take for forever especially during busy trading sessions. I've lost quite a few pips of profit because of this. However, on the Quick tickets with the options they already have set up for you; you can instantly get it and out of the option trade and set limit orders or stop orders to take you out of the option trade as well. Also if you ever call dealing desk you will most likely be speaking to someone with a very thick heavy accent so it will take forever to get in or out of any type of trade. So it depends on your trading style. Usually If i'm up over 400 pips and waiting on the RFQ costs me a bout 30 pips I dont mind too much. But if I have only gotten up 100 and new data presents itself that is going to change the direction of the trade it is a real hassle to get out of the trade and it is so annoying to lose 35 pips by the time the rfq is answered and only come out with 65 for example.It almost forces you to choose their quick tickets with the set expiration to avoid this hassle. You can change the volume though of course. So the trade off for the price is customer service and slow trading platform. Also for their spot. They discourage scalpers and don't even have an option to close out a position at market price. You must close out every position with a limit order or stop order.
  • #292,138
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:13pm Sep 14, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
i myself doubt the drink, due to all this speculative shit brought to the masses.
as i stated earlier, if 30542 doesn't decently bounce, i can honestly state that i suck at analysis.
test in progress atm 29971... shhhh
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #292,139
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:16pm Sep 14, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting Alexgee
Gator, but in China doing that, aren't they shooting themselves in the foot since they hold so much in USD?
I'm trying to make sense of the fundamentals but the only thing I can come up with is to temporarily take advantage of the "cheap euros" .

Any help is welcome.
they can manipulate the market any way they want and make many billions with just a word. they will do it to their advantage when needed. either way.. then stock up on whats cheap.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #292,140
  • Sep 14, 2010 3:18pm Sep 14, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting Maxsmart
I think that it is risky to stay married to a long USD position right now but a put can act as a nice hedge if you are going long or depending on your trading style. I usually look for at least 200 pips a trade so risking 50-60 pips is no problem since we are at resistance on the DJI

Note to Malcomb: I thought you said September would be easy and we would just be selling the rallies on the EUR/USD down to 1.20 lol...I wish it was still that easy.
lol me to ....I thought it would be simple as pie

Last week i just about quit trading with the range all week.

I have always treated odd moves in Asia as suspsect and as we had a 200 pip down move on a holiday in the us into 1/2570 on huge volume on futures, i thought it may have been some form of mark down play , then we went sideways ( did mention channel last week)

since then we have broken to upside of channel and moved back into 1.3030 ... is this a head and shoulders on daily ? who knows.

Not sure what is going to happen next ? down from here or move up to next resistance at 1.3160 in london ....

i am watching the 1.2950 area for further long set ups later today.
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