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  • #292,081
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:39pm Sep 14, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting sisse
Well you make a good case supporting your call. I don't disagree that the daily/weekly break is almost 100% confirmed and in gold there is not about an uptrend ... it's about an unidirectional market (only up) the last few years (this is the 10 consecutive yearly green bar without ever testing previous lows).

However I don't know where do you get 1350 and more importantly I was more interested (in the context of this thread) in the implications for the pair. In particular the rally sep 2009 to 1200 you mentioned, made a stop almost the same day...
For the target of 1350 I am just projecting the range that we were in between roughly 1170 and 1260 from the break out above 1260 which gives us 1350 which is a nice round whole number for the markets. I think we will see more or less around this area. A 38.2 fibbonacci projection of the previous upmove puts us at about 1340. So I think we will encounter resistance around the 1340-1350 level. However, with the recent amount of incredibly rapid and large movements on breakouts above resistance, I wouldn't be surprised to see higher.
  • #292,082
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:43pm Sep 14, 2010 12:43pm
This is what I see:
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  • #292,083
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:45pm Sep 14, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting Z3iz3i
So true.

I think it could visit around 1.2910, what do you think?

Amazing move if 1.3 holds this week.
I am hoping for retrace to get in on a long ...12930 was may target BUT I do not think it will get there . Maybe we get a dip in asia and maybe not ....lol.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #292,084
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:48pm Sep 14, 2010 12:48pm
I have been noticing topping formation in ddm and cat ... 2 good indicators for the dj .

triple withing is friday and oculd mark top of stock market

Quoting Masrim
Yes I very much agree, gold is something particular to watch. Also note that bond yeilds were again hitting all time lows yesterday, despite the heavy rallies in stock markets. This is very unusual. I believe a big move is in the making, and this is only the begining. I think it ultimately has to do with QE 2 by the FED, and the inevitable fact, as much as they like to lie about it, that it's going to artificially inflate the dollar, something quite dangerous. I think the market right now is trying to find balance between the obvious bearishness...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #292,085
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:49pm Sep 14, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting Masrim
..... I think the market right now is trying to find balance between the obvious bearishness QE2 implies for the US economy, and the inflation of dollar denominated risk assets. You can see this easily if you compare gold to say stocks today..... As for bond yields I explain this for myself with investors getting ready for the prospect of inflating the debt through QE 2.
Would appreciate if you could share and elaborate further please?

Much thanks!
  • #292,086
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:51pm Sep 14, 2010 12:51pm
There is setup for upside at 15min tf but i think it will turn into a wedge downside.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #292,087
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:55pm Sep 14, 2010 12:55pm
I am thinking here stock gone up,gold gone up and UJ down. As far i know based on principle stock goes up, gold down and UJ up

what is this new trend developing
  • #292,088
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:58pm Sep 14, 2010 12:58pm
WFT with f..g EUR!!!???
  • #292,089
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:59pm Sep 14, 2010 12:59pm
Long gold @ 1270...
  • #292,090
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:00pm Sep 14, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting Xismal
Would appreciate if you could share further and elaborate on this please?

Much thanks!
Well if the FED eventually resort to QE (Quantitative Easing 2), it would mean that they have reached their last resort measure. That's obviously bearish for the economy and the stocks. As Bernanke says there's only so much they can really do to revive the economy as a central bank. If they do QE 2 though it will most likely be through treasuries, which will drive bond prices up and yields down as it creates artificial demand, that's also what bond traders have been anticipating despite the rallies since the begining of the week. Also since the FED will be buying the Tbonds with dollars created out of thin air it will create dollar inflation, ballooning the prices of assets especially such as gold which are not that related to the real economy.
As a result of QE2 we can expect :
Bond prices up/yields down
USDX dropping broadly, especially sharp against the CHF, JPY
Gold up heavily
Stocks - to me they are still uncertain, will probably drop at first and then rally as inflation picks up
Oil probably to follow stocks.
  • #292,091
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:04pm Sep 14, 2010 1:04pm
I agree to most of your commentaries. Very unusual at this time of economic problem here and there, there're ppl who are willing to buy at such a price .
except speculators.

From what i see it is having a tea break at the current price. Next move it will either continue it journey up north or make a sudden move down south for a retracement, maybe ? Well , sellers ! Don't worry be happy and hold on to your boat tight !
  • #292,092
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:09pm Sep 14, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting VennD
I agree to most of your commentaries. Very unusual at this time of economic problem here and there, there're ppl who are willing to buy at such a price .
except speculators.

From what i see it is having a tea break at the current price. Next move it will either continue it journey up north or make a sudden move down south for a retracement, maybe ? Well , sellers ! Don't worry be happy and hold on to your boat tight !
days range is more than done .. may move sideways to down till next session
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #292,093
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:10pm Sep 14, 2010 1:10pm
For the minority, sellers. be ready , target 1.2875 !
  • #292,094
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:14pm Sep 14, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting VennD
For the minority, sellers. be ready , target 1.2875 !

How do you know ?
  • #292,095
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:17pm Sep 14, 2010 1:17pm
Daily FX provide there Elliot counts and its tottally messed up. They were predicting big drop 2 days ago.

Quoting malcolmb14
lol why on daily there is easy wave count

this is wave 3 ... 1.3180 to 1.3500 potential target , spoke about this on sunday , but one step at a time

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  • #292,096
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:18pm Sep 14, 2010 1:18pm
Quoting gatorinla

atm here is Fridays chart. it is still valid.. w/o a new low or completion. 2752 is in the mofu zone.. a bounce after slip past 2752 is expected. but just remember this bull chart is still valid.. . bears need 2752 then the bounce.. then back below the mofu on this chart. these areas are usually tough.. momentum is usually needed
__________________

im short atm but i dont recommend it. i do expect a retrace of some type. i may go long after unless i get a complete bear wave (2930). this is the same chart (wave from 25955).. as then..i got stopped out my second short for a 10 pip loss. on this last spike my current entry on this chart was hit.. i will close if need be if not i will add on pullback if a bear wave develops. . if so w/o a higher high then 3032.. target is 2930 with a mid at 2981 with respect. with qe talk this is a risky one.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #292,097
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:25pm Sep 14, 2010 1:25pm
Analyst Walter Collica posted a Long term weekly outlook of DXY suggesting USD is currently in a selloff.

http://goo.gl/fb/zVZeP
  • #292,098
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:27pm Sep 14, 2010 1:27pm
Quoting VennD
For the minority, sellers. be ready , target 1.2875 !
Chart/rationale please or whatever you say is just air coming out of your ...

Pullback to resistance now support at 1.2930 possible/likely with more room to the upside (1.33 resistance / 200 DMA). I have an order sitting at 1.3040 for a short term down move play on retracement but the primary trade should be to the upside on retracement. Weekly has plenty of room to the upside with less so on daily in the medium term.

USD got QEed ... I was caught of guard. With EU debt crisis due to start all over again with Greece headlining it ... again ... it will be QE2 vs. PIIGS ... whatever is worse. CHF should be the winner here with room to .88 or so (Weekly).
  • #292,099
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:28pm Sep 14, 2010 1:28pm
Well I take my hat off to certain members who can be seen on this thread even when they are wrong or under water. Its those types of people who are real traders and refreshing. Those other types, that go on-on when the market is going their way, only to disapear when the market goes against them need to grow up in my view and are quite pathetic. Anyway you know who you are...pozers
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #292,100
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:29pm Sep 14, 2010 1:29pm
if they want to get their redeem..target 1.3331 , 1.4125 , That's it ! either way.
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