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  • #292,061
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:01pm Sep 14, 2010 12:01pm
EU Short selling ban will be unveiled tomorrow.
  • #292,062
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:01pm Sep 14, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting manojsai
shorts placed at this levels at market..
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #292,063
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:04pm Sep 14, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting manojsai
most are very bullish.
i am building up my shorts for the 2625 level.. first short at 3025. next short at 303*
i dont expect this rally to extend above 3050.
Mark ths post.
do you alos like to jump out of airplanes with a chute?

look at daily eu , in particualr the channel i posted earlier. We are now above 1.3000 and heading into 1.3100 to 1.3180 ...

There does not appear any reaosn yet for selling for large moves down
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #292,064
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:05pm Sep 14, 2010 12:05pm
m30 h1 h4 shows green candle Im scared to go short
  • #292,065
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:05pm Sep 14, 2010 12:05pm
Well you make a good case supporting your call. I don't disagree that the daily/weekly break is almost 100% confirmed and in gold there is not about an uptrend ... it's about an unidirectional market (only up) the last few years (this is the 10 consecutive yearly green bar without ever testing previous lows).

However I don't know where do you get 1350 and more importantly I was more interested (in the context of this thread) in the implications for the pair. In particular the rally sep 2009 to 1200 you mentioned, made a stop almost the same day the pair peak and started to collapse in Jan 2010 and then resumed the trend during the panic months. In other words the rally to gold (avoiding risk) occurred well in advance before the pair collapsed (from 1.5x to 1.19x) and the stock markets started to decline (they declined later).

So my point was, if that is occurring right now with this break, it means that investors are getting ready for a big fall both in the stock market and in this pair... meaning, only from this perspective, that this is one of the last rallies before the storm.

In any case, good post and good argument so good luck with that trade ... I will be watching gold carefully as it affect most of the instruments I trade.

Best of luck

sisse

Quoting Maxsmart
I expect Gold to touch 1350 within the next 3 months. lol its like deja vu last year I went long Gold during September at 970 and I made a call for 1200 and I heard the same thing. I hit my target in about 2 months. I guess we'll see what happens Sisse. But I'd love to hear the implications. Technically the set up looks with the breakout. Fundamentally I expect quantitative easing rumors to strengthen Gold as well if QE actually does occur it would vastly strengthen Gold. On the flip side Economic uncertainty and a falling stock market, that is...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #292,066
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:05pm Sep 14, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting sisse
Gold breaking all time highs complicates the outlook for the next few weeks (and explaining this rally in the pair).

IMO Gold breaking highs without "any" fundamental "reason" is a very important signal for all markets. The last time i remember something similar (gold breaking highs without any particular reason) was 2 weeks before the financial collapse in sep 08 /oct 08. Any other traders out there with fundamental reasons for the gold move?

sisse
  • #292,067
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:06pm Sep 14, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting Z3iz3i
Looking at this move afterwards, move was easily seen using indicators. Money was pumped into EUR before actual accumulation started. Then it just needed momentum.

Should come down during Asia for rebound, it will get exhausted.

1hr timeframe should cap acc/distr if not.....it will rocket up who knows where.

I agree with Asia time frame. I'm not sure EZ really wants a strong Euro either. A large component of this move was Golden-Sachs who is possibly trying to capitalize before EZ starts dealing with debt as Greek and Irish trouble looms as well as some German banks. Gold will likely come down to Earth with some velocity too. Gold sellers are starting to show up after this move.
  • #292,068
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:10pm Sep 14, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Z3iz3i
Acc-distr/mfi/force index/obv

Those are all explained in investopedia.

Need to compare those indys to find out something peculiar and compare it to your charts, moving averages/stochastic etc
Care to post a chart?
  • #292,069
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:10pm Sep 14, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting 219
m30 h1 h4 shows green candle Im scared to go short
not really sure whty anyone would sell into a daily candles that is closing on its highs... trend is your friend

what you say is right .... 4hr candle green ... so why sell , drops should be bought unless 1.300 taken out on a 4 hour in a london or us session
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #292,070
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:12pm Sep 14, 2010 12:12pm
manojsai. next target. Good luck with your shorts. malco post a chart for the guys who are short. This is a short term rise
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  • #292,071
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:13pm Sep 14, 2010 12:13pm
By looking at h1 chart if 1.3033 is broken i think it should move up a lot more (thats only me) And just whanted to show this pic (anyone using this ? )
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  • #292,072
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:17pm Sep 14, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting vinesh2
manojsai. next target. Good luck with your shorts. malco post a chart for the guys who are short. This is a short term rise
not sure if you were folowing along last week , but when we had that 200 pip drop in asia and euro on the labour day weekedns i was mentioning that on the futures charts that was on huge volumes... that was all buyers on the down move, then we accumaulted in a sideways channel for over a week

this kind of move and accumualtion leads to 500 pip plus moves .... we are only 350 pip of the move right now. This is not done yet

In order to sell this I need to see topping outo n a 4 hour a down move of 100 pip and an up move with a lower high on a 4 hour charts .. then and only then will i satart selling up moves.

this week has been awesome .. got out of this morning move a wee bit early at 1.3000 , but that is ok .... I will buy on a dip and a low vol down bar , hoping for osmething like that in asia
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #292,073
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:22pm Sep 14, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting malcolmb14
not sure if you were folowing along last week , but when we had that 200 pip drop in asia and euro on the labour day weekedns i was mentioning that on the futures charts that was on huge volumes... that was all buyers on the down move, then we accumaulted in a sideways channel for over a week

this kind of move and accumualtion leads to 500 pip plus moves .... we are only 350 pip of the move right now. This is not done yet

In order to sell this I need to see topping outo n a 4 hour a down move of 100 pip and an up move with a lower high on...
So true.

I think it could visit around 1.2910, what do you think?

Amazing move if 1.3 holds this week.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #292,074
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:23pm Sep 14, 2010 12:23pm
If i would have buyed at the bottom cyrcle i would have had 330 pips now My friend did buy
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  • #292,075
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:24pm Sep 14, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting 219
By looking at h1 chart if 1.3033 is broken i think it should move up a lot more (thats only me) And just whanted to show this pic (anyone using this ? )

From what u see, do u think it will make further up moves ? BTW Where can i get that type of plateform ?
  • #292,076
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:27pm Sep 14, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting VennD
From what u see, do u think it will make further up moves ? BTW Where can i get that type of plateform ?


Ya i think we will have further up move probably until the white line (hopefully)
(Thats what i think but im just a starter so dont mind me )
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  • #292,077
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:27pm Sep 14, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting 219
If i would have buyed at the bottom cyrcle i would have had 330 pips now My friend did buy
just maybe, we are not as smart as yr friend nway..very good trend.
  • #292,078
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:32pm Sep 14, 2010 12:32pm
euro break 2967 already and it cancelled my short plan temporarily..if any daily close below 2967 then my short plan activate again.. and now i m with bulls and will take first long at 2975-2980 area.. in daily the next resistance is 3052 if break then 3137 will be the next..and support held on 2967..break then the next will be 2832..
  • #292,079
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:33pm Sep 14, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting 219
Ya i think we will have further up move probably until the white line (hopefully)
(Thats what i think but im just a starter so dont mind me )
good projection ! n i'll be in trouble coz im still holding my shorts till the last dime
  • #292,080
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:38pm Sep 14, 2010 12:38pm
Quoting sisse
Gold breaking all time highs complicates the outlook for the next few weeks (and explaining this rally in the pair).

IMO Gold breaking highs without "any" fundamental "reason" is a very important signal for all markets. The last time i remember something similar (gold breaking highs without any particular reason) was 2 weeks before the financial collapse in sep 08 /oct 08. Any other traders out there with fundamental reasons for the gold move?

sisse
Yes I very much agree, gold is something particular to watch. Also note that bond yeilds were again hitting all time lows yesterday, despite the heavy rallies in stock markets. This is very unusual. I believe a big move is in the making, and this is only the begining. I think it ultimately has to do with QE 2 by the FED, and the inevitable fact, as much as they like to lie about it, that it's going to artificially inflate the dollar, something quite dangerous. I think the market right now is trying to find balance between the obvious bearishness QE2 implies for the US economy, and the inflation of dollar denominated risk assets. You can see this easily if you compare gold to say stocks today. Stocks are still nearly flat for the day(if you include futures), while gold made new historic highs and the USD got hammered against any currency. As for bond yields I explain this for myself with investors getting ready for the prospect of inflating the debt through QE 2.
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