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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #18,541
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:24pm Sep 13, 2010 11:24pm
i short from 84.00,and i caught 50pips
  • #18,542
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:40pm Sep 13, 2010 11:40pm
Quoting realjumper
http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNew...68C59B20100914
After reading the link, for the life of me I can't understand the Safe Haven view on the Yen.

Regardless of my view, I can't long given the charts. (clear down trend)

I just don't get it...either I'm thick or the market is being extremely irrational.
  • #18,543
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:44pm Sep 13, 2010 11:44pm
Quoting pinoyboy
The most important distinction I can say is I look at 1,5,15 TF, Fib, and S/R lines. As with any system, it's discretionary and based on screen time.
how effective is the parabolic SAR ? ... or to what extend do u "trust" the PSAR ?

from ur experience , on which timeframe (1M,5M, 15M etc ) is the PSAR more reliable ?



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  • #18,544
  • Edited 12:47am Sep 14, 2010 12:32am | Edited 12:47am
... don't know what to make out of this ...

since we are into the very low with the strong yen ... are we near the very bottom ? ...

as per the hourly chart, a continuation with the triangle (pennant) just like the bear flag just above .... ?

will they park the yen at , as some expect , 83.00 ?

or will the bungee jump snap back suddenly .... ?



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  • #18,545
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:52am Sep 14, 2010 12:52am
Quoting bablo
After reading the link, for the life of me I can't understand the Safe Haven view on the Yen.

Regardless of my view, I can't long given the charts. (clear down trend)

I just don't get it...either I'm thick or the market is being extremely irrational.
In my opinion, the 'safe haven' view is total bullshit. It's as if the investors are content to do what they've always done, because convention says that this is what they must do......the blind leading the blind, in other words. When the focus (read sensationalism) truely goes away from from EZ and USA and goes on Japan (and it will), the bubble will burst....and a lot of investors are going to get burnt big time. They are helping to sink the Japanese economy, but they just can't see the forest for the trees!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,546
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:58am Sep 14, 2010 12:58am
just looked at the daily ..... will it range ...bearing in mind the politics and request to China about the yen bonds ?

note the arrow patterns on the volume ..
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  • #18,547
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:42am Sep 14, 2010 1:42am
So Kan won the election.....now.....what will he and Noda do? More rhetoric?......do they actually want their country to emerge from the worst recession since WW2 and do something to help......leaders are supposed to 'lead'....lol.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,548
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:44am Sep 14, 2010 1:44am
That was fast... I missed the spike just went to the bathroom
  • #18,549
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:55am Sep 14, 2010 1:55am
Talk of barrier option interest at 83.00 with protective bids just ahead of there.
Source: forexlive.com
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #18,550
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:57am Sep 14, 2010 1:57am
Quoting kandarv
That was fast... I missed the spike just went to the bathroom
Good to stay out of those spikes....they can seriously damage your account. Best to let the dust settle and see if there is a high probability trade there or not
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,551
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:59am Sep 14, 2010 1:59am
Quoting realjumper
Good to stay out of those spikes....they can seriously damage your account. Best to let the dust settle and see if there is a high probability trade there or not
... you can trade the spike retracement. that's more "safe"
  • #18,552
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:02am Sep 14, 2010 2:02am
Quoting bug
Talk of barrier option interest at 83.00 with protective bids just ahead of there.
Source: forexlive.com
Yeah I see that too. I'll start looking to build longs from the low 83's, should we re-visit that area. That's not to say 'I'm going long'.....it means I'm looking for opportunities to start building small longs for the long term.

Now that the election is over, surely Kan and Noda will have to 'lead from the front' and get their hands dirty....assuming that they want the export lead recovery to procede!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,553
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:07am Sep 14, 2010 2:07am
Quoting kandarv
... you can trade the spike retracement. that's more "safe"
Yeah you can, but there's no telling if the retracement is real, or if it's sole purpose is to suck in more traders before zooming off in it's original direction. It's a 50/50 thing, so I stay out of it. If you are nimble and fast, then I guess you can do it.....but I can't....I even type slow!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,554
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:10am Sep 14, 2010 2:10am
Japan PM Kan to hold news conference at 08:30 GMT
Maybe...just maybe we'll hear something to weaken the yen. Even if he doesn't, it's going to be a rough ride for now.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #18,555
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:14am Sep 14, 2010 2:14am
Quoting bug
Japan PM Kan to hold news conference at 08:30 GMT
Maybe...just maybe we'll hear something to weaken the yen. Even if he doesn't, it's going to be a rough ride for now.
You mean...he's going to be watchin FX "closely" and will take "decisive action" when neccessary because large movements in the foreign exchange are "not helpful" to Japans economy....lol.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,556
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:22am Sep 14, 2010 2:22am
Quoting realjumper
You mean...he's going to be watchin FX "closely" and will take "decisive action" when neccessary because large movements in the foreign exchange are "not helpful" to Japans economy....lol.....
Actually I'm thinking along the lines of promises he made to his political supporters. I don't have a degree in Japanese politics, but political deals are commonplace all around the world. So I'm just thinking that maybe he made some promises to corporations that backed him. I don't know of any deals, but I'm saying that it is a possibility. Given that we already know how Kan is like when it comes to the strength of the yen, there's not much to expect. But then again, elections sometimes make for a good environment for deal-making (for corporations and political peer groups). I don't lean on any particular side (weakening the yen or status quo), I'm just trying to think along the lines of those crooked villains we call democratically elected officials.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #18,557
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:25am Sep 14, 2010 2:25am
Quoting bug
Actually I'm thinking along the lines of promises he made to his political supporters. I don't have a degree in Japanese politics, but political deals are commonplace all around the world. So I'm just thinking that maybe he made some promises to corporations that backed him. I don't know of any deals, but I'm saying that it is a possibility. Given that we already know how Kan is like when it comes to the strength of the yen, there's not much to expect. But then again, elections sometimes make for a good environment for deal-making...
Yeah that's certainly possible......democratic elections are never about 'the people'........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,558
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:58am Sep 14, 2010 2:58am
if i were PM of Japan, i will print more yen.... LOL
  • #18,559
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:48am Sep 14, 2010 9:48am
usd/jpy is not doing well at all....
  • #18,560
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:23am Sep 14, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Spoony
usd/jpy is not doing well at all....
Japan Central bank eventually has to print....

Buy gold....
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