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  • #291,261
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:18pm Sep 12, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting jp09
does anyone think we could see a charge at 1.33 here?

fears of a double dip and sentiment in the US has gotten much worse than a few months ago and EUR now doesn't seem to be in as bad a position as it was..... the US contrarily is the one that everyone has their eyes on at the moment witch sketchy economics numbers

Everything is possible with forex
  • #291,262
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:23pm Sep 12, 2010 3:23pm
Short EUR/JPY Enter 107.316 S/L: 108.05 T/P: 106.66

Trading the gap. S/L just outside top of channel from 9 Aug
  • #291,263
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:30pm Sep 12, 2010 3:30pm
Quoting jp09
does anyone think we could see a charge at 1.33 here?

fears of a double dip and sentiment in the US has gotten much worse than a few months ago and EUR now doesn't seem to be in as bad a position as it was..... the US contrarily is the one that everyone has their eyes on at the moment witch sketchy economics numbers
we need to step above 2921 before charging higher levels... the markdown on friday and the immediate rebound above the blue tl on this chart still results in a kind of bear wedge... i'm suspecting more ranging the next week with a smaller range keeping everyone in doubt where the train will stop next. it can't be wrong to tighten stops and trade smaller positions until the direction is pointed out.
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  • #291,264
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:45pm Sep 12, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
we need to step above 2921 before charging higher levels... the markdown on friday and the immediate rebound above the blue tl on this chart still results in a kind of bear wedge... i'm suspecting more ranging the next week with a smaller range keeping everyone in doubt where the train will stop next. it can't be wrong to tighten stops and trade smaller positions until the direction is pointed out.
agreed - i've got pending buys at the bottom of the range with 20pip stops.
  • #291,265
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:47pm Sep 12, 2010 3:47pm
one possible scenario

Buy 2650
Sell 2728 3am
Buy 2700 5/6am
Sell 2741 7am
Buy 2671 9/10am
Sell 2725 17/18:00 for the big trip to and possibly below 2500

Sometimes I get this right. It's happened before, for a whole week, but I was just in the right place at the right time. My system operates off a basic principle but trying to understand the whole thing is like mapping the Gnome.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #291,266
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:50pm Sep 12, 2010 3:50pm
Quoting suthmo
one possible scenario

Buy 2650
Sell 2728 3am
Buy 2700 5/6am
Sell 2741 7am
Buy 2671 9/10am
Sell 2725 17/18:00 for the big trip to and possibly below 2500

Sometimes I get this right. It's happened before, for a whole week, but I was just in the right place at the right time. My system operates off a basic principle but trying to understand the whole thing is like mapping the Gnome.
Buy 1.2650 ??? EURUSD rate now 1.2726 Do you see ?
  • #291,267
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:51pm Sep 12, 2010 3:51pm
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hur...er=accuweather

Cat. 4 Igor headed for the Gulf of Mexico will impact (upward) the price of Oil, hurting the USD.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #291,268
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:58pm Sep 12, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting The Fool
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hur...er=accuweather

Cat. 4 Igor headed for the Gulf of Mexico will impact (upward) the price of Oil, hurting the USD.
can't help it, but now they're exaggerating. a trivial bounce from lower tl would do ebough harm to usd...
  • #291,269
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:58pm Sep 12, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting cagriguler
Buy 1.2650 ??? EURUSD rate now 1.2726 Do you see ?
I don't know what ur using for weekend price? I did say at the end of last week I think we might open at the re test of that lower trend line. I think my plan in that case was short down to 2600. WHen my chart ticks in a minute I hope to see 2665
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #291,270
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:00pm Sep 12, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting The Fool
Anything that helps the bankers pull their panties out of their a$$crack is going to improve the global investment risk climate. In the current risk-on/risk-off paradigm, the euro stands to gain.

Whoever sold the euro to .267x in a dead market on Friday afternoon probably knew the Basel accord was a done deal and all that was left to do was the dinner & photo ops - and knew Basel would effect a sigh of relief in the EZ and a green light for euro strength. Spot fx is the playground of VERY LARGE speculative players. They can ignore the macro fundamentals...
EUR stands to gain? I think it is still too early to tell. Basel III requirements adds more stringent requirement to many European banks, quite a few if not many are already under capitalized. Also, depending on how credit lending is affected, this may have a consequential impact on the economy and thereby delay recovery.

When I read the article and saw the part about Deustche Bank AG wanting to raise that huge amount of EUR from the market, the first thought that came to mind was:

Would they want to purchase a few hundred billion EUR from the market at this current price (or higher) or would they prefer to buy it cheap at 1.1xxx levels (or lower)?

I know there are many ways to raise money including corporate bonds etc but given the above question, if you were the bank, would you prefer a better purchasing price?

Let time be the judge.
  • #291,271
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:06pm Sep 12, 2010 4:06pm
On Dukascopy, price opened at 1.2715 from a close at 1.2679 last Friday.

Currently at 1.27125 bid for those who are interested.
  • #291,272
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:11pm Sep 12, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting Xismal
Would they want to purchase a few hundred billion EUR from the market at this current price (or higher) or would they prefer to buy it cheap at 1.1xxx levels (or lower)?

I know there are many ways to raise money including corporate bonds etc but given the above question, if you were the bank, would you prefer a better purchasing price?

Let time be the judge.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...egulation.html

"Germany’s 10 biggest lenders may need about 105 billion euros in fresh capital because of new regulations, the Association of German Banks estimated on Sept. 6."

Futile to try to predict intraday moves given plethora of conflicting macro considerations, but fun to try anyway.

Anyway, Basel III has to be ratified in Seoul in November, doesn't kick in until 2013, and then the EZ banks have 5 or 6 years to come into compliance.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #291,273
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:15pm Sep 12, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...egulation.html

"Germany’s 10 biggest lenders may need about 105 billion euros in fresh capital because of new regulations, the Association of German Banks estimated on Sept. 6."

Futile to try to predict intraday moves given plethora of conflicting macro considerations, but fun to try anyway.

Anyway, Basel III has to be ratified in Seoul in November, doesn't kick in until 2013, and then the EZ banks have 5 or 6 years to come into compliance....
True. That is a long time frame. Many things can happen between now and then.
  • #291,274
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:20pm Sep 12, 2010 4:20pm
My support broken...
  • #291,275
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:55pm Sep 12, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting The Fool

Futile to try to predict intraday moves given plethora of conflicting macro considerations, but fun to try anyway.
I don't agree that it's futile, otherwise intra-day speculators wouldn't ever make any money during potentially volatile weeks.
  • #291,276
  • Sep 12, 2010 5:05pm Sep 12, 2010 5:05pm
2010-09-13_Strategy for EUR/USD ...

Moin Mr. Hatch!

Wieder mal im Lande? Wie lebt es sich in der Zone? Gut eingewöhnt inzwischen?

Okidoki - EU closed Friday at Interbank conditions in Chicago IMM as follows ...

EUR/USD :

1.2682

EU opened Sunday at Interbank conditions in Wellington as follows ...

EUR/USD :

1.2680


Highest has been 1.2735

Lowest has been 1.2678

until now ... within first four hours of trading ...

Estimation of range for Asian Session incl. Asian / European Overlap might be as follows ... sell off towards 1.2654 or 1.2598 possible ... corrective upside limited towards 1.2741 at first ... late break of above 1.2803 possible then ... this would trigger some bullish potential ...

Elliott counts down from 1.2766 ... projection @ 1.2659 and 1.2635 at first ... if no cut below 1.2650 area ... an impulse towards above 1.2757 in the cards again ...


palim ... klim bim ...

;-)
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #291,277
  • Edited 5:37pm Sep 12, 2010 5:12pm | Edited 5:37pm
Sell 2730 3,4,5am
Bounce @ 2674 9/10am
Bounce @ 2640 1pm 2674 retest
2600 7PM
Sideways till midnight
Tue free fall to 2500

If this comes off, I expect to see 2730 test in this hour 11pm pull back at 12:00 and back up to 2730 at 1/2pm all times quoted in GMT -1 hour DST prediction subject to terms and conditions. No refunds will be given wizard accepts no liability for any losses or damages caused by this prediction.

I lied it's 1am 2730 2am pullback to 2711 and 3,4,5 am back to 2730 then sell off.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #291,278
  • Sep 12, 2010 5:28pm Sep 12, 2010 5:28pm
HEY Guys,

GAP UP @ start of week, and wu still go UP, as usually we go down close de GAP, so i Sell now@ 1,2725 with Target@ 1,2675 (50 pips to open de week )

Bye

TripeiroFX
"Por mais fundo que seja o buraco, pelo menos esse não tem terra em cima"
  • #291,279
  • Sep 12, 2010 5:31pm Sep 12, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting TripeiroFX
HEY Guys,

GAP UP @ start of week, and wu still go UP, as usually we go down close de GAP, so i Sell now@ 1,2725 with Target@ 1,2675 (50 pips to open de week )

Bye

TripeiroFX
SL ?
  • #291,280
  • Sep 12, 2010 5:32pm Sep 12, 2010 5:32pm
Quoting cagriguler
SL ?

Sorry, SL @ 1,2775 (litle pips above MAX of last 3 trading days)

Best regards,

TripeiroFX
"Por mais fundo que seja o buraco, pelo menos esse não tem terra em cima"
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