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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #74,541
  • Sep 11, 2010 5:29am Sep 11, 2010 5:29am
Quoting ghous
I got a PM today where someone wanted me to comment on why the PA setups on Usd/Cad and Aud/Usd 4H charts failed.

Here's my take on them (decided to post it up at the thread for everybody's sake)

AUD/USD 4H:

BEOB off a swing high. Conventionally a great location for a BEOB to be at specially when it comes along with divergence as in this case. For me though this was a very easy pass.



USD/CAD 4H:

Pin bar with the nose touching the 1.03 mark. BRN? Yes! Great setup? NO!


g.
Hi Ghous,
Great analysis on the setups. Yesterday, I took the 4H PB on the USDCHF which didn't workout. Though there is traffic on the left, I took the short trade considering that for the last 5 bars PA did not breach the 1.0167 level and when it did pop up it was convincingly rejected from the BRN 1.0200. While in the short trade when the price did not tank fast enough I started getting doubtful of the setup and as such cut the trade with half bar loss.
May we have your and other seniors thoughts on this setup.

Cheers
Novice 198
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  • #74,542
  • Sep 11, 2010 6:01am Sep 11, 2010 6:01am
Quoting raczekfx
break out or.... fake out?
.

I don't know if your into the 78% FIB (is the 78% a Fib ratio?) . . although I don't see many of them on your charts . . I don't use it . .

. . . anyways . . it lined up nicely with Monthly, Weekly, Daily, etc, Low that was hanging out there from July. I'm sure it was playing a strong role over the last few weeks . .more so seen on the lower time frames.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,543
  • Sep 11, 2010 6:05am Sep 11, 2010 6:05am
Quoting raczekfx
break out or.... fake out?
.

We'll see if this puppy is turning over to the long side.

Maybe the 4 Hour and Hourly can gives a hint to where it may begin. . . or at least gives a bounce to cover our risk . .what'd you say Rac? . .


Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,544
  • Sep 11, 2010 6:20am Sep 11, 2010 6:20am
Quoting supremeChaos
wow, nice trade
i think we'll revisit 1.5850 only if current downmove is negated convincingly. but if that happens anytime soon, it maybe another for u
Quoting jarroo
.

Looking to if she retraces to the 1.5850 to retest previous Support.


We knew this all along . . .didn't we sChaos .. .


Pretty easy stuff . . right buddy?
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,545
  • Sep 11, 2010 6:45am Sep 11, 2010 6:45am
Possible 2 Scenarios i m looking at in the EUR.USD Charts ,i m more into the first scenario where we might test the resistance area shown in the chart at 1.2770-1.2820 before reversal to wave 3 down
coresspondent weakness in the Equities is expected to back up this Eur SCenario
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  • #74,546
  • Sep 11, 2010 7:03am Sep 11, 2010 7:03am
Quoting jarroo
We knew this all along . . .didn't we sChaos .. .


Pretty easy stuff . . right buddy?

great trade jarroo, i was watching that when it hit that level yesterday but had to go out so never got to take it, lovely price action, today looking at the chart its a nice daily pin bar, not as much room to move down but still a valid trade that i will be looking to take on sunday night if we break the bottom of the pin

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  • #74,547
  • Edited 7:27am Sep 11, 2010 7:12am | Edited 7:27am
Quoting pocrel
great trade jarroo, i was watching that when it hit that level yesterday but had to go out so never got to take it, lovely price action, today looking at the chart its a nice daily pin bar, not as much room to move down but still a valid trade that i will be looking to take on sunday night if we break the bottom of the pin

The 4 hour PB was not as big as we would like but it did show rejection of the previous Support that is now acting as Resistance. Meaning a strong locational setup as oppose to the PA formation itself.


Yes, the traffic and poor swing low location on that big bearish PB would be tough to take with any confidence. It could be heading back to the 1.5500 BRN.

I would be looking to see if Price retest this newly formed Restance level again, 1.5850.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,548
  • Sep 11, 2010 7:16am Sep 11, 2010 7:16am
Interesting where Price was caught between on the DJIA30 through all of last week. Between the previous bar Low of the Weekly BEOB and the previous bar High of the Weekly DBLHC, which barely broke through.

More to upside this week on the DJIA30 if the Weekly DBLHC plays out and finds the 10500 to act as strong Support, breakout - pullback style.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,549
  • Edited 10:05am Sep 11, 2010 7:46am | Edited 10:05am
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.


This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.


I pray again for those that lost their lives on that day.


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #74,550
  • Sep 11, 2010 8:34am Sep 11, 2010 8:34am
Quoting jarroo
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.


This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.


I prayer again for those that lost their lives on that day.
Amen brother.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #74,551
  • Sep 11, 2010 8:42am Sep 11, 2010 8:42am
Quoting jarroo
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.


This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.


I prayer again for those that lost their lives on that day.


Jim
  • #74,552
  • Sep 11, 2010 8:44am Sep 11, 2010 8:44am
Quoting novice198
Hi Ghous,
Great analysis on the setups. Yesterday, I took the 4H PB on the USDCHF which didn't workout. Though there is traffic on the left, I took the short trade considering that for the last 5 bars PA did not breach the 1.0167 level and when it did pop up it was convincingly rejected from the BRN 1.0200. While in the short trade when the price did not tank fast enough I started getting doubtful of the setup and as such cut the trade with half bar loss.
May we have your and other seniors thoughts on this setup.

Cheers
Novice 198
Hey Novice,

I understand the reasoning behind that trade - a pretty ok trade if you realize well enough you were trading in a sideways market.

Sideways/Ranging markets are an absolute heaven to trade for someone who understands price well. Think about it, what makes a side ways market? What enables a trend - i.e a dominant imbalance in the market to diminish such that that there is no clear direction? It's when price starts holding up at more S/Rs even minor ones, heck sometimes just a single bar high/low, that we get the sideways action. In hindsight of course that means neither party is strong enough to take price their way.

Point is when trading in a ranging market you cannot afford to look over and above minor trouble areas and target for the major ones because price is dangerously (and interestingly) holding up at price flips and there is no dominant momentum in the market that would take price authoritatively in one direction.

Honestly this setup did nothing that should surprise us. It hit's a very obvious price flip and bounces off. Surprises will be for people who took this one for it's long nose and wanted it to blow past everything and continue with the down trend. Nothing wrong in anticipating that given that you do it with sensible trade management, which comes with the understanding that since you're caught up in a sideways market price can retaliate off of even minor trouble areas hence your risk on the trade needs to be eliminated ASAP.

I wouldn't call a half bar loss on this one a "badly managed" trade again given if that's your style and you normally are not a "get to BE quick" or a "get out at FTA" trader, but taking a full bar loss on this one is surely not a wise thing to do.

(this was an easy pass for me, because even in ranging markets I like my target areas to be obvious and straightforward, plus price has to give me the time I need to move my stop to BE without me having to babysit the setup out to my take profit area.)

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #74,553
  • Sep 11, 2010 8:46am Sep 11, 2010 8:46am
Quoting jarroo
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.


This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.


I prayer again for those that lost their lives on that day.


Jim
Amen!!!

g.
I believe . . .
  • #74,554
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:11am Sep 11, 2010 9:11am
Quoting jarroo
I don't know if your into the 78% FIB (is the 78% a Fib ratio?)....
78.6 is.
some use 76.4.

Quoting jarroo
We knew this all along . . .didn't we sChaos .. .
Pretty easy stuff . . right buddy?
Sure, Jim.

Quoting jarroo
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.
  • #74,555
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:15am Sep 11, 2010 9:15am
Inserted Video


To all who have lost my heart and love goes out to you.
  • #74,556
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:51am Sep 11, 2010 9:51am
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Quoting eswap0
Looks like this triangle is going to break...
According to my charts from ibfx feed the price is trying to break the lower part of the channel at 75.56. This is alot different to your charts. May I know which broker your using?
http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j5...jdailyibfx.gif
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #74,557
  • Sep 11, 2010 10:01am Sep 11, 2010 10:01am
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Quoting ghous
Amen!!!

g.
G, is it Amen or Amin for you?
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #74,558
  • Sep 11, 2010 10:03am Sep 11, 2010 10:03am
Quoting jarroo
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.


This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.


I prayer again for those that lost their lives on that day.


Jim
Amen
  • #74,559
  • Sep 11, 2010 10:05am Sep 11, 2010 10:05am
  •  Jey
  • | Joined Jun 2009 | Status: Market Slave-Overworked/Underpipped | 283 Posts
Quoting jarroo
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.


This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.


I prayer again for those that lost their lives on that day.


Jim
Amen to that bro. And may that Ba$$tards who did that inhumane attacks rot in hell.
I have seen the enemy, and it is me.
  • #74,560
  • Sep 11, 2010 11:11am Sep 11, 2010 11:11am
Quoting jarroo
September 11, 2001 . . .We will never forget.


This was not an attack on New York . .nor even the United States . .it was an attack of the Free World and those that believe in Liberty.


I pray again for those that lost their lives on that day.


Jim
AMEN SIR I pray dearly for all those involved. You can not break the spirit of our great country EVER.

Thank you for all those that gave/lost their lives and those still fighting for us to be able to do all the great things and lead the safe life we have grown to know.

I got back from NYC not too long ago and things are as great as ever.

Never forgot what is most important around us and be sure to tell them every day
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