james16 Chart Thread

Nice one! Been following your posts for the last few days and there were some nice trades from you. Well done!

I got a PM today where someone wanted me to comment on why the PA setups on Usd/Cad and Aud/Usd 4H charts failed.

Here's my take on them (decided to post it up at the thread for everybody's sake)

AUD/USD 4H:

BEOB off a swing high. Conventionally a great location for a BEOB to be at specially when it comes along with divergence as in this case. For me though this was a very easy pass.

The reason why swing highs and swing lows are preferred for PA setups over minor pull backs is because 1) they give you space to trade into 2) they provide you with recent S/R flips for trade management purposes. All that's fine but what you additionally need is a bar that has the strength to do it all. What one shouldn't forget is that trading off a potential swing high/low is technically trading against the trend which is why you need to have ample confluence factors (BRNs, MAs, divergence etc) to provide you with confidence and the belief that if the opposite party is looking to get in at a particular area it has a solid reason going for it.

This setup was an easy pass, because that bar was more off a BEOB by definition than a true bar that would signal a trend reversal here. Do not make the mistake of neglecting the strength of the up move on the pair while getting carried away just because you see a "BEOB at a swing high with space"

Notice up till here all I am talking about is reversal reversal reversal. And here's the beauty of price action and the difference between a newbie who just learned how to identify a BEOB and someone who's been doing this for a while. Where was price going once it did break the BEOB? Wasn't 9200 on the cards? It very much was. Thing is one trader wanted it to blow past everything and the other understood that despite being at a swing high, it did not hit any big orders out there that would really point towards the shifting of balance in the market (and that would allow the bar to close a lot bigger and more authoritative). He probably took full profit at the 9200 or at least had moved his stop to protect himself in case the bulls snapped back. (after all it's their rein)

To me this was a winner, and a lovely example of price action.

USD/CAD 4H:

Pin bar with the nose touching the 1.03 mark. BRN? Yes! Great setup? NO!

Once again it is a good idea to look beyond literal characteristics of the bars themselves and take a sneak peak into what's the real deal out there.

What I see is some real heavy selling once price triple topped at the 10650 region. No crystal balls at work here folks. Just regular eye balls scanning the very obvious. Strong bearish bars/runs followed by minor pull backs since price bounced off 10650. Was a small pin bar even when it was off 1.03 a good trade given that you are trying to swim against the tide? Step into the shoes of a big player in the market who was short on some of these gigantic selling moves on the pair. Would you not be wanting to take some profit off the 1.03 level once price hit it? Wouldn't the bears in general want a breather after that huge sell off of a BEB a few bars before the pin bar?

Discard the para above if you find it even slightly confusing or difficult to grasp. Didn't price still did what it was supposed to once it broke the pin bar and validated it? That's right. It made it to 1.035, right where we had the BEB low and a minor early rejection. Before you know it, you are long on a pin bar that's small, going against the current imbalance in the market and has very limited space to move into.

Again guys find more meaning to your trades than just literal definitive stuff and price get's as beautiful as a hot chick by the beach

g.

I'd like to get multiple points of view on daily pinbars that form on Fridays.

If an A+ pinbar is formed on a Friday, would you put in an order on Sunday based on that Friday pinbar, or would you consider it less reliable than if it formed on another day?

not much happened here...

price action did what we expected. 130 will act as support.

By the way anyone from Toronto, Canada? going to be there tomorrow, lets have a beer and discuss J16

high was 54.64 usd. with a break of the trendline, 60 usd can be reached. simple price action.

Hi there, Trade them, I say that with great confidence from personally doing it, back when cable was way up, there was a weekly pinbar with huge long term divergence, the pin literally formed in the last few hours or day of the week, so I was told that it's less reliable, if you look at that trade, i believe it never went back there till this day. I'll upload chart in a sec

My experience tells me over thinking makes it to messy for me, if it looks great, take it, long term you'll do great, of course you have to consider s/r etc etc, as ghous mentioned above, but when the daily or weekly bar forms does not matter.

Of course 4hr and lower, you have better chance if they form during active sessions, but even then, if there real beauties, and stick out, i still take them during any session.

Just to be clear, it wasn't james who said that cable trade was less reliable.

Thanks Fxtsun. I don't trade after the fta is hit. The show is over for me.

Thanks for the encouragement sir. I will try to keep up!

lol... When I have a beer, I discuss something else.

lol, I understand, but at the moment that something else does not mean as much as J16, cause when I finally master the J16 that something else would be all over for life, hehe

You're right Sir! You are highly motivated and eager to learn. Keep up the enthusiasm!

Thank you sir! I just happened to be in the right place at the right time.
Peace


fxtsun
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"Chance favours the prepared mind" - Louis Pasteur

Hey Ghous, happy Eid ul-Fitr to you and family.

Looks like this triangle is going to break...

Thnx a lot Jey. Much appreciated.

g.

It was like butter . . .(on a roll)

Now that was butter G. Nice . . .

Thanks sChaos