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  • #291,201
  • Sep 11, 2010 2:11am Sep 11, 2010 2:11am
Quoting fontu
Morning to all , just open computer to see what happened at last , No decide yet about move any side .

so seeing gold as I have interest in it now , if continue up or have a little breakout towards 1227.1209,1194,1181 and if below 1174 then chances 1162 & down more ( 1004 as expected before ) . anyway any or none /negligible pullback possible before up as I see market soar for every commodity & whatever strength usd or any any corrency showing in any chart actually all devaluing in controlled mode & no absolute strength rather readjustment ....
fundamentally this is the best time for gold in the year it usually goes up due to high demand in india
  • #291,202
  • Sep 11, 2010 2:21am Sep 11, 2010 2:21am
[quote=bksujal;4015070]fundamentally this is the best time for gold in the year it usually goes up due to high demand in india[/quote
Yeah and also rice may be other part of the world or powder milk/baby milk may be due over production mankind elsewhere in this season .
lets see .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #291,203
  • Sep 11, 2010 2:22am Sep 11, 2010 2:22am
Quoting bksujal
fundamentally this is the best time for gold in the year it usually goes up due to high demand in india
High demand only during this time of the year? Could you explain.
  • #291,204
  • Sep 11, 2010 3:53am Sep 11, 2010 3:53am
http://www.forexhound.com/article/Pa...xt_Week/236500

This is what I was thinking most of the week just ended. In the face of oil moving up, green days in the US stock market, and money moving out of Treasurys (Treasurys yields increasing) the break & hold lower in the euro seemed contrived to me. "News" about EZ sovereign debt risk released in stealth, even at the very tail end of the week, suggest a big money motive to suppress the euro price. With larger volume coming back in the coming week I will expect a euro rally.

Of course, I will trade what I see, not what I expect.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #291,205
  • Sep 11, 2010 6:19am Sep 11, 2010 6:19am
Quoting standardpips
High demand only during this time of the year? Could you explain.
in india the marriage season kicks of in november, and in india they gift jewelery in weddings. Its a custom. Also in India a festival called 'Diwali' is celebrated in October in which people shop for gold. They buy gold usually for the entire year!
Conclusion India has the highest imports of gold compared to other countries. Historically from September gold prices head in only one direction which is upwards.
  • #291,206
  • Sep 11, 2010 6:26am Sep 11, 2010 6:26am
Quoting Larseg
Absolutely.

Hehe, as I read it I just felt the anger sneak upon me
  • #291,207
  • Sep 11, 2010 6:47am Sep 11, 2010 6:47am
Possible 2 Scenarios i m looking at in the EUR.USD Charts ,i m more into the first scenario where we might test the resistance area shown in the chart at 1.2770-1.2820 before reversal to wave 3 down
coresspondent weakness in the Equities is expected to back up this Eur SCenario
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  • #291,208
  • Sep 11, 2010 7:12am Sep 11, 2010 7:12am
An article from my favourite UK publication, Moneyweek. Read into it what you will. It is always good to get an understanding of the bigger picture and where the money flows between equities, bonds, gilts and currencies, so beautifully explained by Cloggie in the Cable thread.

Will the Euro crash tomorrow, next week, next month, next year? Who knows! I just look at my charts and use TA based on demand and supply to determine where price might be heading next. Here is the article and enjoy your weekend! -

The respite in Europe’s debt crisis “appears to have been only temporary”, says Michael Schuman on Time.com. The yield gap between safe German ten-year bonds and peripheral ten-year ones has now crept back up to nearcrisis levels. The bond markets are saying that parts of southern Europe are unlikely to be able to repay their debts in full, says Wolfgang Münchau in the FT. They’ve “got this one right”.

The main worry, as usual, is Greece. It will struggle to complete its harsh austerity programme. “It is impossible to cut wages … by 30% without major riots,” says Hans-Werner Sinn of the IFO Institute. Moreover, the government’s reform programme is so “hyperambitious” that it will be “hard not to underdeliver”, adds Lex in the FT. “Good luck with taming those bolshie trade unions.” Even if Greece does pull through, it will only have stabilised debt at a colossal 150% of GDP. Making a dent in this would require a further, long-term squeeze, says Capital Economics.

Elsewhere, estimates of Ireland’s overall debt pile have been revised up beyond 100% of GDP as the cost of recapitalising the banking sector has risen. There are also worries over Portugal’s long-term solvency, given its huge private and public debt burden and lack-lustre relative growth.

The periphery would need a decade of solid growth to be sure of keeping up with its obligations, says Münchau. But countries “still recovering” from “enormous” asset-bubble implosions can’t generate that much growth. The bottom line is that a default or debt restructuring in Europe “is going to happen”. That means, at some stage, the euro crisis will return.

Good luck with your trading!
  • #291,209
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:54am Sep 11, 2010 9:54am
Quoting The Fool
http://www.forexhound.com/article/Pa...xt_Week/236500

This is what I was thinking most of the week just ended. In the face of oil moving up, green days in the US stock market, and money moving out of Treasurys (Treasurys yields increasing) the break & hold lower in the euro seemed contrived to me. "News" about EZ sovereign debt risk released in stealth, even at the very tail end of the week, suggest a big money motive to suppress the euro price. With larger volume coming...
Thanks for the article , very good reading . anyway trading rally both in au & uj very dangerous whatever the scenerio and even gold by look .

yes , expectation & what see if match should have the best result , otherwise what see may not be true any , same applies to expectation & analyses.
risky week perhaps still continues.
best regards ,
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #291,210
  • Sep 11, 2010 10:00am Sep 11, 2010 10:00am
Quoting bksujal
fundamentally this is the best time for gold in the year it usually goes up due to high demand in india
Bride from my place.....
more the gold,the better..............more the gold price increase,still better..........
Attached Image
  • #291,211
  • Sep 11, 2010 10:09am Sep 11, 2010 10:09am
Only 1 trade for the week, unlike most of the traders here. I saw a post by Sisse about not making things to confusing in a ranging environment. Based on my way of trading and that theory, I trade only on the bounderies of the range. I think it is a good way of preserving capital and not over trading. The middle of the range I find too unpredictable, IMO. Anyways the 1st chart is the 4 hr and shows the trend line on the bottom showing the bottom of the range. Note on the 4 hr chart the testing of the bottom trendline, it had tested it 4 time before and the 5th time was a false breakout. The second chart is the 1 hr and shows my exact entry. Price came back into the range and then went down to the trendline again and pulled away with a hammer candle. My entry was at the close of that candle. I closed 3/4 of my trade at 32 and was hoping for price to continue upwards, but it did not.
I find that in a ranging period taking profit earlier is the best way, b/c things can turn around and wipe out any + pips
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  • #291,212
  • Sep 11, 2010 11:34am Sep 11, 2010 11:34am
http://img822.imageshack.us/img822/1990/gug.gif
  • #291,213
  • Sep 11, 2010 12:34pm Sep 11, 2010 12:34pm
I like challenging common assumptions and trading myths. However, your chart and analysis is completly missleading. Using 1 daily bar true range to define an intraday trending day is not only wrong but is a dangerous assumption (trending in the daily? in a 240M? in H1? in 5M in 3000 tick?...it doesnt make any sense assuming that all intraday timeframes were in perfect trending synch). If it were that easy to determine live trends...

More than half of your so call trending days are actually very choppy and range intraday action that go back and for at different times during the day, others were just one super fast untradable intraday moves, a few just news spikes,etc ,etc. A tradable trend (whichever the timeframe) is compose from a lot more than the after the fact range.

Don't get me wrong there are other ways to make a case against trending and non trending markets but your chart actually does the opposite and confirm the trading myth.

sisse

Quoting Larseg
Just playing around...

3 day trend minimum for being accepted as a trend...

70% trending 40% not trending... killing the 70% non trending myth?
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #291,214
  • Sep 11, 2010 1:15pm Sep 11, 2010 1:15pm
Just a crazy idea.. Could the below principle can be applied to FX Trading in any way?

"Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at an Elingsh uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht frist and lsat ltteer is at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervey lteter by itslef but the wrod as a wlohe."
  • #291,215
  • Sep 11, 2010 1:26pm Sep 11, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting KennyZ
Just a crazy idea.. Could the below principle can be applied to FX Trading in any way?

"Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at an Elingsh uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht frist and lsat ltteer is at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervey lteter by itslef but the wrod as a wlohe."
Vrey Inserestnig!
Great Bodies are Engineered not Born
  • #291,216
  • Sep 11, 2010 1:34pm Sep 11, 2010 1:34pm

Euro Won’t be able to Hold Back the Fundamental Tide for Much Longer

Read more: Forex @ DailyFX - Euro Won’t be able to Hold Back the Fundamental Tide for Much Longer http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame...#ixzz0zFOa8WKq

  • #291,217
  • Sep 11, 2010 2:00pm Sep 11, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting manojsai
Bride from my place.....
more the gold,the better..............more the gold price increase,still better..........
lol nice pic
  • #291,218
  • Sep 11, 2010 3:20pm Sep 11, 2010 3:20pm
Quoting KennyZ
Just a crazy idea.. Could the below principle can be applied to FX Trading in any way?

"Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at an Elingsh uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht frist and lsat ltteer is at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervey lteter by itslef but the wrod as a wlohe."
HAHA. yes, all that matters is the ertny and the eixt.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #291,219
  • Sep 11, 2010 6:29pm Sep 11, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting KennyZ
Just a crazy idea.. Could the below principle can be applied to FX Trading in any way?

"Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at an Elingsh uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoetnt tihng is taht frist and lsat ltteer is at the rghit pclae. The rset can be a toatl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae we do not raed ervey lteter by itslef but the wrod as a wlohe."
one might also liken it to candlesticks in that you could rearange a 60 min span of 5 min bars but in the end they would still make the same candle as long as you dont move the open and close
  • #291,220
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:47pm Sep 11, 2010 9:47pm
Quote
There are also worries over Portugal’s long-term solvency, given its huge private and public debt burden and lack-lustre relative growth.

The periphery would need a decade of solid growth to be sure of keeping up with its obligations

True... I cannot talk about Greece but here in Portugal it´s a continuing joke, NOTHING has changed in the last year except the dismiss of some 2 or 3 pharaonic construction projects, the rest it´s just smoke and mirrors and the government continues spending more and more...

5 (50% of total population) million people living from TAX revenues money.
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