NatGas weekly charts

you are wellcome !

do you plan to open a trade ?

WEEKLY CHART. we have 2 important chanels. one is RED and was broke in yellow point 1. ,and other chanel is GREEN one . also pay attention to the supports and resistance. red chanel is uptrend and green chanel is downtrend.

yesterday it was so slow natgas so didnt open a trade,today i will see how will go tradingand you?today in the morning gone down little bit so i will wait till afternoon,sometimes changing movements....

yesterday was bank hollyday. i wait for price to stop around 3.8 and go up again. but i don't enter till price decide what to do.

seems like price manage to stay above 61.8 fibo level at 3.8 area. WEEKLY CHART . as i said early , price played around 3.8 and now up.

forecast is +60 bcf


Natural gas futures slid Tuesday as forecasts for temperate weather reduced the demand outlook for gas-fired power generation.

Natural gas for October delivery settled down 8.7 cents, or 2.2%, at $3.852 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Cool, autumnal weather will develop in the northern part of the U.S. during the next week to 10 days, leading to "progressive and sustained lowering" of air conditioning demand, said Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics, a private forecasting firm. Temperate weather reduces the need for natural gas-fired power to cool homes and businesses.

Natural gas demand typically eases as hot summer weather comes to an end, pushing prices lower. The benchmark futures contract is down 22% since July 30.

"The market has been rebalancing from the beginning of August until now," said Gene McGillian, an analyst with Tradition Energy. Traders are unsure of when the seasonal bottom in prices will come "given the more-than-ample supplies in gas, the uncertain economic outlook, and evaporation of seasonal demand."

The amount of natural gas in U.S. storage is above average for this time of year, adding pressure to prices. Natural gas inventories on Aug. 27 stood at 3.106 trillion cubic feet, 5.8% above the five-year average, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

"The market is probably anticipating a pretty bearish picture being painted" in coming storage reports, said Cameron Horwitz, analyst with SunTrust Robinson Humphrey in Houston. Storage increases this summer have been below average because of unusually hot weather in parts of the U.S., but demand hasn't been strong enough to draw down inventories that had reached record highs last year.

The tropical storm outlook has also done little to support prices recently. Despite an active hurricane season, storms haven't seriously disrupted production in the energy-rich Gulf of Mexico. Natural gas prices can jump if a storm enters the Gulf, which is home to about 11% of U.S. gas production.

Tropical Storm Hermine moved inland Tuesday over south Texas, but the storm wouldn't have much of an effect on U.S. gas infrastructure, analysts said.

Government forecasters are tracking one storm system in the eastern Caribbean and two in the distant Atlantic, but none are seen developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. No storms should threaten the Gulf during the next 10 days, meteorologists at private forecaster Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday.


FUTURES SETTLEMENT NET CHANGE
Nymex Oct $3.852 -8.7c
Nymex Nov $4.098 -7.2c
Nymex Dec $4.387 -7.8c

CASH HUB RANGE PREVIOUS DAY
Henry Hub $3.78-$3.85 $3.70-$3.79
Transco 65 $3.77-$3.88 $3.67-$3.75
Tex East M3 $4.00-$4.20 $3.89-$4.00
Transco Z6 $3.99-$4.16 $3.90-$3.97
SoCal $3.63-$3.69 $3.56-$3.71
El Paso Perm $3.53-$3.59 $3.51-$3.60
El Paso SJ $3.44-$3.52 $3.43-$3.54
Waha $3.63-$3.70 $3.59-$3.65
Katy $3.77-$3.83 $3.73-$3.83

http://a.imageshack.us/img339/1871/i...9372768149.png

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i have 2 charts. DAILY and H4 . here it is :

see green triangle.will break up or down.

IGOR........

forecast for today is for bears. DAILY CHART. 1 or 2 ? let's see if break again 3.8 usd area.

today i think will break 3.8 used area but not for long time,we will see how will go after natgas storage anouncement

yes. but if break 3.8,next stop is 3.5. have to be a complete broke,not false broke.

Highlights
Natural gas in storage rose 58 billion cubic feet in the September 3 week. A roughly 50 bcf injection was expected.


I think 3.693 is the key. If it gives, we could see much lower levels as this present formation will be a bear flag with approximately 400 points drop.

2d

yes,and as you can see,it holds. i said couple days before that the minimum from 30 august will be the minimum of the year..... 3,7 area holds.

While currently Igor is far from a monster, and we have a lull in the tropical Atlantic, three hurricanes may prowl the Atlantic later next week.
AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi insists his early-season prediction count of 13 to 15 named tropical storms by the end of September will hold true this season.
"We only had a 36-hour period without a tropical system over the past couple of weeks," Joe stated Thursday morning.
Computer models seem to be supportive of Joe's prediction Thursday with not only Igor churning Atlantic waters, but also "Julia" and "Karl" joining in on a new tropical frenzy next week.
A mass of thunderstorms, currently moving westward across Africa, is one of the new disturbances expected to become a tropical storm after cruising the Atlantic for a short time in the next five to seven days.
Another, much closer cluster of showers and thunderstorms, currently near the Lesser Antilles, is the second system waiting to be born during the same period.
Joe is concerned that while Igor could still slip farther west than computer models suggest, that two of the three systems could impact the U.S.
AccuWeather.com

DAILY CHART. we have 2 elements . strong support at 3.7 area and yellow chanel daily forming.

DAILY CHART. seems to follow the white chanel i painted earlyer.

http://www.barchart.com/cache/bb4dbd...8c7b52bdd9.png


geo, i note the high price has not challenged the weeks high.

6.9,10 the high was 3.946
todays high was 3.939

so i will still be careful 3.7 may be challenged again

2d