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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #18,321
  • Sep 6, 2010 2:37am Sep 6, 2010 2:37am
Quoting sidhujag
Then I think the importance of the long term trend stands out
Absolutely!......but this won't go down forever, and (to me) it's starting to become exhausted. I'll be looking for opportunities to build a long from the mid 83's, or perhaps after the BOJ conference outcome shows itself on the chart. Nothing is 'set in concrete' here, but today isn't the day (for me) to get into this pair!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,322
  • Sep 6, 2010 2:42am Sep 6, 2010 2:42am
Quoting realjumper
Absolutely!......but this won't go down forever, and (to me) it's starting to become exhausted. I'll be looking for opportunities to build a long from the mid 83's, or perhaps after the BOJ conference outcome shows itself on the chart. Nothing is 'set in concrete' here, but today isn't the day (for me) to get into this pair!
Remember to expect the unexpected...... unlimited profit targets are always the key to success... limiting your losses is key but limiting your profit is always BAD.
  • #18,323
  • Sep 6, 2010 2:51am Sep 6, 2010 2:51am
Quoting sidhujag
Remember to expect the unexpected...... unlimited profit targets are always the key to success... limiting your losses is key but limiting your profit is always BAD.
Of course. This might go down to 70 for all I know, but what I'm saying is that fundamentally Japan is very concerned about the strength of the Yen, their exporters are begging for some action before it cripples their exports entirely. Japans economic recovery can only be driven by their exports.....so BOJ is under immense pressure, with admittedly few cards to play. On the TA from, to, this pair is starting to run out of downward steam, as I posted here. Can it ignore all of the above and go down more?.....yes of course it can. No one knows which way it will go, or for how far. All we can do is to have a 'plan A' and a 'plan B'
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,324
  • Sep 6, 2010 2:52am Sep 6, 2010 2:52am
Quoting realjumper
Hmm, I have to agree with bug on this.....that divergence is long since played out....several days ago.

Are you sure that you're not seeing what you want to see, rather than what's actually there?
yep im sure
  • #18,325
  • Sep 6, 2010 2:53am Sep 6, 2010 2:53am
Quoting bug
I don't see anything I'm afraid. I think you're overestimating the power of a simple divergence and a few small candles.
agreed overall trend is down but it wont be forever mate and there has to be bear market rallies which is due for this pair
  • #18,326
  • Sep 6, 2010 2:54am Sep 6, 2010 2:54am
Quoting realjumper
Of course. This might go down to 70 for all I know, but what I'm saying is that fundamentally Japan is very concerned about the strength of the Yen, their exporters are begging for some action before it cripples their exports entirely. Japans economic recovery can only be driven by their exports.....so BOJ is under immense pressure, with admittedly few cards to play. On the TA from, to, this pair is starting to run out of downward steam, as I posted here. Can it ignore...

Japan is only in power because of USA since its debt is tied to US debt... if US says it doesn't agree Japan is the bitch.

This is the case and today we are seeing it no intervention so Japan is trying to put their mouth where the money is get it?
  • #18,327
  • Sep 6, 2010 7:58am Sep 6, 2010 7:58am
Somebody move this biotch!

My buy order from Friday (84.08) finally got filled. I had taken two positions. I closed one at +7. SL has been set to 84.01. This makes the other one a free runner. But I am really getting tempted to close the second one too

As far as TP is concerned, I am looking at 84.53 for now.

Anybody else traded UJ today?
  • #18,328
  • Sep 6, 2010 8:11am Sep 6, 2010 8:11am
Quoting need-help
Somebody move this biotch!
You're expecting too much. Have you had a look at the calendar today? The US and Canada are closed, which means there is less volume. I had a look at the liquidity gauge at FF and it was 75% below average. Don't get me wrong - you can still trad, but you better have reasonable expectations.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #18,329
  • Sep 6, 2010 8:12am Sep 6, 2010 8:12am
Quoting bug
You're expecting too much. Have you had a look at the calendar today? The US and Canada are closed, which means there is less volume. I had a look at the liquidity gauge at FF and it was 75% below average. Don't get me wrong - you can still trad, but you better have reasonable expectations.
spot on
  • #18,330
  • Sep 6, 2010 8:16am Sep 6, 2010 8:16am
hi,
Yeah I know US and Canada are closed. Perhaps this thing will have to wait until tomorrow

Quoting bug
You're expecting too much. Have you had a look at the calendar today? The US and Canada are closed, which means there is less volume. I had a look at the liquidity gauge at FF and it was 75% below average. Don't get me wrong - you can still trad, but you better have reasonable expectations.
  • #18,331
  • Edited 9:32am Sep 6, 2010 8:36am | Edited 9:32am
Quoting bksujal
yep the move did happen but the target is still intact for me, as u see the bullish engulfing was followed by a morning star formation which signals a good reversal
where exactly are these candlesticks on ur chart ?
  • #18,332
  • Sep 6, 2010 8:41am Sep 6, 2010 8:41am
By the way, with the BOJ press conference tomorrow, in my opinion, it wouldn't be unrealistic to expect a steep rise - even though temporary.
  • #18,333
  • Sep 6, 2010 1:17pm Sep 6, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting sidhujag
Japan is only in power because of USA since its debt is tied to US debt... if US says it doesn't agree Japan is the bitch.

This is the case and today we are seeing it no intervention so Japan is trying to put their mouth where the money is get it?
I have no wish to argue the point with you.

Trade well
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,334
  • Sep 6, 2010 2:54pm Sep 6, 2010 2:54pm
Quoting realjumper
I have no wish to argue the point with you.

Trade well

Sorry was under the influence lol
  • #18,335
  • Sep 6, 2010 11:58pm Sep 6, 2010 11:58pm
According to the news that I have read regarding the BOJ meeting, it seems that everything under the sun was discussed except the excahnge rate and the strenth of the Yen.......if that turns out to be true, then we may head on down because the market will surely put the BOJ to the test!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,336
  • Sep 7, 2010 12:12am Sep 7, 2010 12:12am

The people at BOJ are like little children.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #18,337
  • Sep 7, 2010 12:18am Sep 7, 2010 12:18am
Quoting bug

The people at BOJ are like little children.
Yes, they certainly are.....or perhaps they are ostriches...with their heads buried firmly in the sand!!

The talk is that the government is looking into taking more control of the bank and setting them tasks....like for example, getting 2% inflation and getting the exchange rate above 90. It's just talk though.....I'll believe it when I see it!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,338
  • Sep 7, 2010 12:25am Sep 7, 2010 12:25am
Quoting realjumper
Yes, they certainly are.....or perhaps they are ostriches...with their heads buried firmly in the sand!!

The talk is that the government is looking into taking more control of the bank and setting them tasks....like for example, getting 2% inflation and getting the exchange rate above 90. It's just talk though.....I'll believe it when I see it!!
Indeed. Just a short while ago they were trying to think of measures to halt the rise of the yen. Now they are saying this: BOJ Gov Shirakawa: Monetary policy not determined by short-term forex moves
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #18,339
  • Sep 7, 2010 12:26am Sep 7, 2010 12:26am
Quoting bug

The people at BOJ are like little children.
LOL.....it's confirmed....the ARE like little children....read this
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,340
  • Sep 7, 2010 12:27am Sep 7, 2010 12:27am
Moreover, look at the contents... looks like the BOJ is starting to get schizophrenic.
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If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
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