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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #18,281
  • Edited 1:36am Sep 5, 2010 1:31am | Edited 1:36am
Quoting mfoste1
All you longs are gonna be in for a rude awakening......
Maybe....maybe not. People have been saying that for a while now, but if you look at the Daily....the circled area, it has been trying to get below 84 but it just can't make it stick. I shouldn't be suprised to see it try again....maybe a couple of times, but it looks increasingly likely that it won't be able to stick it out down there. In the event that it can get a foot hold down there, well, we might see 80 flat....maybe.

Also, that shooting star you pointed out on the H6 is there on the Daily too (see arrow).....but it doesn't necessarily mean shit. Have a look at the weekly and you will see a hammer (I think it's called, but see arrow) a couple of weeks ago, and it didn't mean shit either!!

I'm not too keen to start setting up longs from here, but next time we get into the 83.60-ish area, depending on PA etc, I'll do it.

I know that BOJ has few options open to it as far as intervening goes, but they are not powerless, and they have friends!! I don't think there's a lot they can do to reverse this bear run, but I shouldn't be suprised to them take action to stem the decline.

Time will tell man.
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  • #18,282
  • Sep 5, 2010 1:44am Sep 5, 2010 1:44am
The H8 chart... just to give it a thought.
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  • #18,283
  • Sep 5, 2010 1:51am Sep 5, 2010 1:51am
Quoting kandarv
The H8 chart... just to give it a thought.
what do U actually see in that chart .... latest , both (price and stocs) horizontal ? ... what does that mean ?
  • #18,284
  • Sep 5, 2010 10:30am Sep 5, 2010 10:30am
Quoting TheArcher
what do U actually see in that chart .... latest , both (price and stocs) horizontal ? ... what does that mean ?
It says, at least in the technical sense, that we are still in a downtrend with the yen and it has enough strength left to break that support.
  • #18,285
  • Sep 5, 2010 10:39am Sep 5, 2010 10:39am
Quoting realjumper
Maybe....maybe not. People have been saying that for a while now, but if you look at the Daily....the circled area, it has been trying to get below 84 but it just can't make it stick. I shouldn't be suprised to see it try again....maybe a couple of times, but it looks increasingly likely that it won't be able to stick it out down there. In the event that it can get a foot hold down there, well, we might see 80 flat....maybe.

Also, that shooting star you pointed out on the H6 is there on the Daily too (see arrow).....but it doesn't necessarily...

good analysis RJ ......

What I would ideally like to see is longs throwing in the towel and going short. This is usually a pretty good indication that the trend is about to change. Until I see this market sentiment I described, I'm still short....
  • #18,286
  • Sep 5, 2010 10:43am Sep 5, 2010 10:43am
Quoting kandarv
it has enough strength left to break that support.
er... can u explain how so ... or how to read that with the divergence method ?

thanks
  • #18,287
  • Sep 5, 2010 10:50am Sep 5, 2010 10:50am
Nice channel to play here......I prefer selling below the bollinger avg line or the utl/bb, then exiting on a touch of the lower tl or bb.
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  • #18,288
  • Sep 5, 2010 11:01am Sep 5, 2010 11:01am
Quoting TheArcher
er... can u explain how so ... or how to read that with the divergence method ?

thanks
Remember, this is my interpretation. Usually divergence is helpful finding or confirming double tops & double bottoms. I found divergences in the previous possibles double bottoms, a lot of trades took those longs. Now last week possible double bottom doesn't show that divergence. Means that not even bulls took longs there. So I expect this week to break that support with a possible test to 83.00-82.70

That's my expectation. But I also see a lot of risk involved with low liquidity related to Monday's U.S. holiday and related to the feel of "risk on" by some investors, so a test to 85.20 is possible too.
  • #18,289
  • Sep 5, 2010 11:19am Sep 5, 2010 11:19am
Quoting kandarv
Remember, this is my interpretation....
thanks for the explanations !

learnt something today .
  • #18,290
  • Sep 5, 2010 12:52pm Sep 5, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting mfoste1
good analysis RJ ......

What I would ideally like to see is longs throwing in the towel and going short. This is usually a pretty good indication that the trend is about to change. Until I see this market sentiment I described, I'm still short....
Where are all these bulls hiding? I only see a lot of forecasters predicting 80. The same one's that predicted 88 and 85 months after reversal. This are also the same people that predicted the EURUSD to 1.6 in the fall 2009, parity this spring and USDJPY to a 100 before it got derailed by the euro debt crisis and the spill-over effect it had on US. Now everyone is sitting waiting for 81 because they think they're smart.

Don't just look at the trend. Think about the price and how far it's actually gotten. US was in dire straits after the flash crash. Stock market performance has a huge impact on consumer sentiment, and if you look at the eco numbers they where actually steady before this point, while slightly climbing for each month. Private payrolls have if you compare them m/m improved for the last three, after tumbling straight when the volatility in May started.

The only huge effect number coming from US next week is the trade balance. The one for June where fiery red. They're delayed by 40 days so this one will be for July. The US export sector is hugely effected by the dollar strength, so notice that June was the month the index was at its top. Since that it has declined, and consencus for next week is barely below the previous reported number. Hmm..

Im comfortable with my long and considering adding an additional one.
  • #18,291
  • Sep 5, 2010 1:23pm Sep 5, 2010 1:23pm
This should be interesting. (Charts from finviz futures section)
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  • #18,292
  • Sep 5, 2010 1:25pm Sep 5, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting Rush
Where are all these bulls hiding? I only see a lot of forecasters predicting 80. The same one's that predicted 88 and 85 months after reversal. This are also the same people that predicted the EURUSD to 1.6 in the fall 2009, parity this spring and USDJPY to a 100 before it got derailed by the euro debt crisis and the spill-over effect it had on US. Now everyone is sitting waiting for 81 because they think they're smart....
Bang on. When those so-called "experts" started advising throwing the baby out with the bathwater, it might be interesting to take a peek at their agenda and adopt a contrarian view...
  • #18,293
  • Sep 5, 2010 1:40pm Sep 5, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting Rush
Where are all these bulls hiding? I only see a lot of forecasters predicting 80. The same one's that predicted 88 and 85 months after reversal. This are also the same people that predicted the EURUSD to 1.6 in the fall 2009, parity this spring and USDJPY to a 100 before it got derailed by the euro debt crisis and the spill-over effect it had on US. Now everyone is sitting waiting for 81 because they think they're smart.

Don't just look at the trend. Think about the price and how far it's actually gotten. US was in dire straits after the...

ALL I'm looking at is the trend and PA....those are the only two true things in a market. It's all in the chart.

This pair can literally go to 75, in a matter of no time. All it takes is a 5-10% equity sell-off, which, is impending....We are in historical times in the financial world, and anything can happen at any moment. I have hunch that when it does happen, it will be big.

Japan has no more bullets left. Their monetary policies are non-effective. They have been in a deflationary spiral for almost 20 years, and they are in a worse condition economically than ever before. They very well could be forced to start over as an economy.

Sure, BOJ can do all they want to weaken the yen, however until a major market dynamic shifts for the yen, it will continue to be the funding currency of the world and it will continue to strengthen. I'm saying something unprecedented has to happen for the yen to weaken....what is this? I don't know and BOJ sure doesn't know because if they did they would have already enacted it.
  • #18,294
  • Sep 5, 2010 1:52pm Sep 5, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting mfoste1
...
Sure, BOJ can do all they want to weaken the yen, however until a major market dynamic shifts for the yen, it will continue to be the funding currency of the world and it will continue to strengthen. I'm saying something unprecedented has to happen for the yen to weaken....what is this? I don't know and BOJ sure doesn't know because if they did they would have already enacted it.
The improvement of U.S. economy.
  • #18,295
  • Sep 5, 2010 1:57pm Sep 5, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting kandarv
The improvement of U.S. economy.

That's not going to happen anytime soon, have you looked at housing, employment, manufacturing?......unless a full fledged QE is enacted, which again, will only be a temporary fix.

I've said this before, for a true bottom and real growth to begin, market prices have to reflect their true values. Prices have deviated sharply away from their true values ever since QE was enacted back in march 09. Prices will continue to be distorted as long as governments intervene. The best thing that the controllers of monetary policy can do is let markets work themselves out. Eventually, sooner than later, they will find a bottom and real solid growth can begin based on manufacturing. IMO that is the only thing that will get the US economy growing like it used to.
  • #18,296
  • Sep 5, 2010 2:03pm Sep 5, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting mfoste1
That's not going to happen anytime soon, have you looked at housing, employment, manufacturing?......unless a full fledged QE is enacted, which again, will only be a temporary fix.

I've said this before, for a true bottom and real growth to begin, market prices have to reflect their true values. Prices have deviated sharply away from their true values ever since QE was enacted back in march 09. Prices will continue to be distorted as long as governments intervene.
I know, that's why I quoted your "something unprecedented" line. I'm on the same train of thought. This has to be solved by the natural cycles of economy.
  • #18,297
  • Sep 5, 2010 4:36pm Sep 5, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting mfoste1
good analysis RJ ......

What I would ideally like to see is longs throwing in the towel and going short. This is usually a pretty good indication that the trend is about to change. Until I see this market sentiment I described, I'm still short....
Well that's one way to look at it.....the other way is to see the commercial traders throw in the towel and go long!!!!

I don't think either side is going to shift it's stance just now, which is probably why we have been hanging around down here in the 85s - 86's for the past few weeks.

If neither side gives in, then something outside will be the mover.....and intervention won't be it.....'cos that's unlikely to happen because Japan can't go it alone, and it has no backers.

So what will be the catalyist that moves this thing?......there's a few things, but none of them is likely, so really I don't know!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,298
  • Sep 5, 2010 4:43pm Sep 5, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting realjumper
Well that's one way to look at it.....the other way is to see the commercial traders throw in the towel and go long!!!!

I don't think either side is going to shift it's stance just now, which is probably why we have been hanging around down here in the 85s - 86's for the past few weeks.

If neither side gives in, then something outside will be the mover.....and intervention won't be it.....'cos that's unlikely to happen because Japan can't go it alone, and it has no backers.

So what will be the catalyist that moves this thing?......there's...
http://www.forexlive.com/129839/all/...long-positions
  • #18,299
  • Sep 5, 2010 4:51pm Sep 5, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting mfoste1
http://www.forexlive.com/129839/all/...long-positions
Yeah....that was almost a given after the Non Manufacturing report was bad
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #18,300
  • Sep 5, 2010 4:59pm Sep 5, 2010 4:59pm
OK guys if i can help this is my view about USDJPY >

I am neutral now i will wait price above 85.40 to load buy otherwise no trade for mi on this pair.We have stoping volume on Daily chart but to confirm that Stoping i must see Price above Demand Zone...


Petar
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