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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #4,361
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:48pm Sep 2, 2010 5:48pm
U/Chf,

I like the idea of buying around 1.0050-30 with a wide SL
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  • #4,362
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:15pm Sep 2, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting shahab8b
Did I ever promote our service in this thread?

I always try answer questions and post whenever I get a chance, but I am a little busy at moment due to other projects.
No, true - I apologize for the direct dig - it's just at times some questions have been asked and no response given. The only promotion I could usually see is x00 pips with shahab and someone.
I think it is more the approach some people are after. It is all well and good to highlight the report and fib levels but there is a process that can be used to trade around the fib level not just shorting at the fib level - I remember we had a discussion on GU a while back when it squeezed through the fib levels before returning down.
  • #4,363
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:36pm Sep 2, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting SanMiguel
No, true - I apologize for the direct dig - it's just at times some questions have been asked and no response given. The only promotion I could usually see is x00 pips with shahab and someone.
I think it is more the approach some people are after. It is all well and good to highlight the report and fib levels but there is a process that can be used to trade around the fib level not just shorting at the fib level - I remember we had a discussion on GU a while back when it squeezed through the fib levels before returning down.
I usually try to answer the questions whenever I get a chance, sometimes the thread stretched and I missed a few questions.

Regarding the trades on exact level ,different people use different approach.In the text books they say wait for the PA to show the level holds then enter. When there is a confluence of a Fib and another S/R I personally prefer a pending orders on the exact level with a proper SL. In that example you mentioned (Cable) , I remember the fib level that we drew first time were for smaller TF swings when we zoomed out and drew the higher TF the level showed it's significance.
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  • #4,364
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:52pm Sep 2, 2010 6:52pm
thanks for the help shahab and dhb. But what i was wondering was when price was reaching that resistance area from below how would we determine whether to set a pending short or or long order ? Or do we just wait to see what happens at that level and place an order on the retest in the direction of the longer term trend. in this case up
  • #4,365
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:52pm Sep 2, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting shahab8b
U/Cad, 1.060 in 3-4 days
Loonie : it has been a long time since I posted the ab=cd pattern on u/cad but It's good to update the progress of what we've thought.
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  • #4,366
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:03pm Sep 2, 2010 7:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
Loonie : it has been a long time since I posted the ab=cd pattern on u/cad but It's good to update the progress of what we've thought.
Extremely Accurate !
  • #4,367
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:11pm Sep 2, 2010 7:11pm
Quoting dan89
thanks for the help shahab and dhb. But what i was wondering was when price was reaching that resistance area from below how would we determine whether to set a pending short or or long order ? Or do we just wait to see what happens at that level and place an order on the retest in the direction of the longer term trend. in this case up

When you've got more than two confluence simply place a Pending Order with a SL appropriate to your TF (I usually use one ATR).

The confluences you need to look at are:

1-Support Turned Resistance and vice versa
2-Previous Support / Resistance
3-Fib level
4-Round Number like 1.6000 1.6100 ...
5-Pivot Points (Daily/weekly/monthly)
6-Important MA like 55- 100-200
7-Daily/Weekly/Monthly Support and Resistance
8-Trend Lines
9-Check RSI for Div whether hidden or classic, if you find div the probability of success will increase

Here is an example of confluence approach #4298
  • #4,368
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:28pm Sep 2, 2010 8:28pm
A/U : scalping 1min chart
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  • #4,369
  • Sep 2, 2010 9:56pm Sep 2, 2010 9:56pm
Quoting shahab8b
A/U : scalping 1min chart
A/U :target hit
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  • #4,370
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:14am Sep 3, 2010 8:14am
Quoting shahab8b
When you've got more than two confluence simply place a Pending Order with a SL appropriate to your TF (I usually use one ATR).

The confluences you need to look at are:

1-Support Turned Resistance and vice versa
2-Previous Support / Resistance
3-Fib level
4-Round Number like 1.6000 1.6100 ...
5-Pivot Points (Daily/weekly/monthly)
6-Important MA like 55- 100-200
7-Daily/Weekly/Monthly Support and Resistance
8-Trend Lines
9-Check RSI for Div whether hidden or classic, if you find div the probability of success will increase

Here is an example...
Thanks for the help shahab. i read that confluence post. I understand most of it except that formula thing you used lol. Anyway, lets say we have price rising to a previous support turned resistance area which has confluence with weekley/daily pivot and a round number. How can we dertermine whether price will hit this resistance level and bounce back down or blow straight through the resistance level turning it into support.

The only way i can think is to check if there is bearish divergence just before price reaches the resistance level. Or by using Price Action like a bearish pin bar. But these require me staying at my screen. I dont see how setting a pending order would work becuase we wouldnt know whether resistance would hold or turn into support if price moves straight through it .
  • #4,371
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:17am Sep 3, 2010 8:17am
Quoting shahab8b
When you've got more than two confluence simply place a Pending Order with a SL appropriate to your TF (I usually use one ATR).

The confluences you need to look at are:

1-Support Turned Resistance and vice versa
2-Previous Support / Resistance
3-Fib level
4-Round Number like 1.6000 1.6100 ...
5-Pivot Points (Daily/weekly/monthly)
6-Important MA like 55- 100-200
7-Daily/Weekly/Monthly Support and Resistance
8-Trend Lines
9-Check RSI for Div whether hidden or classic, if you find div the probability of success will increase

Here...
Interesting, thanks.
I also only enter a trade when I have 2 or more reasons for it.
COT report can also become a reason but then I prefer to have 2 technical reasons on the chart as well.
  • #4,372
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:34am Sep 3, 2010 8:34am
Quoting dan89
Thanks for the help shahab. i read that confluence post. I understand most of it except that formula thing you used lol. How can we dertermine whether price will hit this resistance level and bounce back down or blow straight through the resistance level turning it into support.
I dont think if anyone can answer that question with certainty.The thing is we are dealing with probabilities, when you have confluence levels the probability of success will increase. Lets say we measured the probability of success around 60% (based a logistic regression model which I explained elsewhere); in that case using a RRR 1:1 would be enough to make you profitable in long run.
  • #4,373
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:46am Sep 3, 2010 8:46am
Quoting SanMiguel
Interesting, thanks.
I also only enter a trade when I have 2 or more reasons for it.
COT report can also become a reason but then I prefer to have 2 technical reasons on the chart as well.
You are welcome,

Right now there is a confluence level on A/U around .9200
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  • #4,374
  • Sep 4, 2010 12:57am Sep 4, 2010 12:57am
Quoting shahab8b
Loonie : it has been a long time since I posted the ab=cd pattern on u/cad but It's good to update the progress of what we've thought.
do u mind sharing the fibo in post 4365 on ucad sir?
  • #4,375
  • Sep 4, 2010 4:33am Sep 4, 2010 4:33am
Quoting fxrambo
do u mind sharing the fibo in post 4365 on ucad sir?
Fxrambo,

While I'm not Shahab, I think I can still help.

I've broken down Shahab's fib combo into separate components, so that you can see how they were used. I've also pointed out which icon to use for which type of fib tool (arrow, upper left of the chart).

To get the additional fib icons in the toolbar, right click anywhere on the toolbar and then select "Customize...". You can then add additional tools, as well as re-shuffle them.

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It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #4,376
  • Sep 4, 2010 7:09am Sep 4, 2010 7:09am
hi guys
seems we could gain some pips in illustrated zones
EURYEN240
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  • #4,377
  • Sep 4, 2010 7:10am Sep 4, 2010 7:10am
EURGBP240
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  • #4,378
  • Sep 4, 2010 7:11am Sep 4, 2010 7:11am
GBPUSD240
1.5520-1.555
weekly pivot
S&R
AB=CD
Reciprocal AB=CD
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  • #4,379
  • Sep 4, 2010 3:38pm Sep 4, 2010 3:38pm
What do you guys think ?. E/J H4 - Gartley, R/S, Convergence of Fibs.

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Btw, what settings do you guys use when saving your charts in MT4 ?
  • #4,380
  • Sep 5, 2010 2:41am Sep 5, 2010 2:41am
Quoting dan89
What do you guys think ?. E/J H4 - Gartley, R/S, Convergence of Fibs.

Attachment

Btw, what settings do you guys use when saving your charts in MT4 ?

I agree with you since there are butterfly
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GREENIUS
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