Does it look like Swissy is in an uptrend, or a downtrend? Do you think a small little pinbar is able to make a huge downtrend like this one turn around?
Also, while the COT does indeed say that the non-commercials are net long CHF, that means they're long CHF/USD, or short USD/CHF, which is what you and I trade. Remember how the COT uses XXX/USD? So pairs like UJ, UCad and UChf should be interpreted the other way around.
In other words, the institutional traders are still betting short for the most part.
Also, while the COT does indeed say that the non-commercials are net long CHF, that means they're long CHF/USD, or short USD/CHF, which is what you and I trade. Remember how the COT uses XXX/USD? So pairs like UJ, UCad and UChf should be interpreted the other way around.
In other words, the institutional traders are still betting short for the most part.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.