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  • #288,501
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:58am Sep 3, 2010 4:58am
Quoting DrLobo
thats true

but this just does not feel like a bullish 3rd wave much either.
check this........http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=288021
  • #288,502
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:59am Sep 3, 2010 4:59am
Quoting DrLobo
thats true

but this just does not feel like a bullish 3rd wave much either.
Give it some time, (usd+eur) CHF is getting stronger (going up), means risk-aversion off.

Eur/chf buying might continue and usd/chf hit the wall and turn down. Might try early breakout.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #288,503
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:59am Sep 3, 2010 4:59am
Anybody is watching EUR/CHF? The pair broke resistance and is flying high.
  • #288,504
  • Edited 5:13am Sep 3, 2010 5:03am | Edited 5:13am
Quoting T@rantula
Ok here is my analysis of EU.

EU would probably reach 2939 before NFP. As we can see on the h4 it is a MAJOR reversal point 4/8 and on a DAILY EMA RSI crosses definitely point upwards and we are pushing above 4/8 ..After the report we should see...If it breaks above 2939 expect 3062 and 3184 and maybe one more push towards 35xx. There will be some corrections but according to my analysis this could be it.



Attachment
A post 2 days ago. This is playing out atm. Thin liquidity as the market died before NFP, but strong UPWARD movement is expected. NFP will likely push this thru resistance.

My chart showing OBV divergence @ h4 tf, gives as a cue that market is expecting bad NFP numbers to push EU up, but we cannot exclude better then expected NFP numbers due to a higher consumer spending and rise in CC.

The very first thing to watch out after NFP is YEN, as NFP will have the first impact on UJ pair, after that we can expect EUR and GPB action.

T
  • #288,505
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:07am Sep 3, 2010 5:07am
Quoting Chicky
[1.3292 1.3100 1.2938 1.2726 1.2422 1.2169]

What about 1.2938 before 1.2422?
def possible....thats right under the old daily tl that was broken, it really hasnt been tested w/ force yet.....i have shorts from 2940-50
  • #288,506
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:08am Sep 3, 2010 5:08am
This monthly chart looks almost the same as my daily chart

So in theory we could be in Wave 3 of a C wave ?

But one of the problems i have with this chart is that it looks like its an bearish impulse wave starts directly after a bullish impulse wave ?

How would you label the wave that happened before ?


Quoting manojsai
looks like middle of wave 3 ,inside wave (i) inside main corrective C......no two elliot ever agree on wave count
  • #288,507
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:17am Sep 3, 2010 5:17am
Quoting Patience
Yeah, I was thinking that we'd have a downside bias for most of this quarter but the market might have something else in mind so I'll let it show me it's hand. Last run-up maybe

Looks like I logged in at the wrong time again
it's a long day, afternoon nfp could change things.
  • #288,508
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:20am Sep 3, 2010 5:20am
update on the chart.
2835 is the base now......triple top done the next time the blue line is going to be taken............
  • #288,509
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:21am Sep 3, 2010 5:21am
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurplay4.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #288,510
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:22am Sep 3, 2010 5:22am
Regarding the Euro I'm totally amazed that we are NOT above 1.30 already after the up adjustments by the ECB yesterday. Prepare for some kind of a huge up move, if not today then next week.

My target is still 1.35 till the end of this year and well above next year (with some USD strength within Q1 2011 due to new rate hike fantasies)
  • #288,511
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:24am Sep 3, 2010 5:24am
Bear weak point seen before NFP.
May be bear shifted its resistance
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #288,512
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:24am Sep 3, 2010 5:24am
I'm looking for a short upon confirmation if this thing goes down, SELL SELL SELLL!!!
  • #288,513
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:24am Sep 3, 2010 5:24am
Quoting T.E.Lawrence
I've just bought swissy @0151
closed -4pips
  • #288,514
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:27am Sep 3, 2010 5:27am
entered short at 1.2849..sl at 2868..tp 2795
  • #288,515
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:29am Sep 3, 2010 5:29am
Quoting Xaron
Regarding the Euro I'm totally amazed that we are NOT above 1.30 already after the up adjustments by the ECB yesterday. Prepare for some kind of a huge up move, if not today then next week.

My target is still 1.35 till the end of this year and well above next year (with some USD strength within Q1 2011 due to new rate hike fantasies)

.... from my point of view 1.3500 - 1.3650
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #288,516
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:29am Sep 3, 2010 5:29am
Quoting Shah22
entered short at 1.2849..sl at 2868..tp 2795
I am taking the opposite side of that trade: long@ 1.2846 sl 1.283 tp ????
  • #288,517
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:31am Sep 3, 2010 5:31am
Quoting Xaron
Regarding the Euro I'm totally amazed that we are NOT above 1.30 already after the up adjustments by the ECB yesterday. Prepare for some kind of a huge up move, if not today then next week.

My target is still 1.35 till the end of this year and well above next year (with some USD strength within Q1 2011 due to new rate hike fantasies)
Exactly....Im also long mid term, could change only my INTRADAY bias depending on PA,divergences etc..

And btw...Im amazed we havent touched 2939 level as its a perfect pivotal s/r point before NFP release...as it seems now a drop from 33xx levels was a POSITIVE REVERSAL, i have written many posts pointing that out.
  • #288,518
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:31am Sep 3, 2010 5:31am
Quoting Shah22
entered short at 1.2849..sl at 2868..tp 2795
It seems that bears are still hidden.
I want to enter short like you
  • #288,519
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:31am Sep 3, 2010 5:31am
Quoting zaphy
I am taking the opposite side of that trade: long@ 1.2846 sl 1.283 tp ????
brave man because 2855 is the monthly high
  • #288,520
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:31am Sep 3, 2010 5:31am
Quoting Xaron
Regarding the Euro I'm totally amazed that we are NOT above 1.30 already after the up adjustments by the ECB yesterday. Prepare for some kind of a huge up move, if not today then next week.

My target is still 1.35 till the end of this year and well above next year (with some USD strength within Q1 2011 due to new rate hike fantasies)

exactly, it should have went up, but it didn't.....doesnt that throw up a red flag on longs that we didn't pop up on that news?
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