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Sonic R. System

  • #14,361
  • Edited 10:37am Sep 1, 2010 10:05am | Edited 10:37am
A Thought on Finding SonicR Targets:

Once a Wave HL sequence is established just prior to PA breakout from the Dragon, apply the FR study to the first leg of the wave, L to H for longs, and H to L for shorts. Attached are three examples for long trades from today's session, and one example for a short trade. The FR levels can help you decide which whole, half and quarter number levels to select for targets. It goes without saying that any such level selected should also be checked for alignment with historic PA S&R and consolidation areas.
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  • #14,362
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:07am Sep 1, 2010 11:07am
Quoting traderathome
GU On Watch:

H4 shows PA has been driven back up to SR area....seems to be faltering there now, waiting on US releases at 8:30am EST.

M15 shows the last several hits in this SR area.

Most typically, though not always, PA can be driven against the "expected run direction" prior to releases after which there is expected to be that run. In this case, PA has been driven up prior to the upcoming US releases, which increases the odds that the run subsequent to the releases will be down.

BTW, the Approved Hours displayed is per Sonicdeejay's...
Assuring Your Approved Hours Are Correctly Displayed:

In the referenced post I made a serious misstatement that I herewith correct. The erroneous statement was....

"BTW, the Approved Hours displayed is per Sonicdeejay's post #12, which you can duplicate by reducing the closing hour by one hour in the indicator in this template...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12483
....making the span from 1am EST to 11am EST. The hours preset are from 1am EST to 12noon EST. The preset hours will be corrected in the new release."

The indicator in the template is correct as it stands for GMT time. It will yield the correct Approved Hours per Sonicdeejay's post #12 if you input the correct GMT offset of your broker's server. No other change needs to be made! The vLines in the chart attached to the referenced post displayed INCORRECTLY the vLines for Approved Hours. The correct display is per the attached chart, using EU as an example. If anyone is unsure they have the correct GMT offset settings in the Market Panel Display Controller, then check your vLines against the attached chart. Your PA should intersect the vLines exactly as shown on this attached chart. If they do not, then you need to adjust the GMT offset hours setting until your chart matches the attached chart. I apologize for any inconvenience my misstatement may have caused.
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  • #14,363
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:27am Sep 1, 2010 11:27am
TAH, your posts priceless as usual !!

could you please remind how to set up additional levels with price label in MT4 Retracement ?
Patience is the key.
  • #14,364
  • Edited 12:15pm Sep 1, 2010 11:45am | Edited 12:15pm
Quoting odges
TAH, your posts priceless as usual !!

could you please remind how to set up additional levels with price label in MT4 Retracement ?
1. Select the FR Study tool and draw any retacement.
2. Double click on the FR diagonal line to make the dots appear (so you can edit).
3. Then right click on the diagonal to bring up selection window.
4. Left click on "Fibo Properties".
5. Select tab "Fibo Levels" in the new window.
6. Left click on "Add". This allows you to now enter numbers into the "Level" and into the "Description" boxes.
7. As an example, to add a 162% extension level outside the FR retrace study, input "-1.618" to the "Level" box. Input "162" in the "Description" box. If you want prices, input "162 %$", padding three spaces between the two parts of the input. If you want something like "162% 1.3170" including the "%" as part of the FR level description, then the input must be like this "162%% %$", placing two "%%" as a part of the level number and then padding three spaces (# spaces optional) and ending with the "%$". If you are going to include the "%" in the description, you might experiment with also placing a space between it and the number, so as to appear like "162 %% 1.3170". With that spacing the display may be easier to read.

Try this out. It should work.
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  • #14,365
  • Sep 1, 2010 1:01pm Sep 1, 2010 1:01pm
EU Watch:

The longer term trend is down, verifiable from Weekly and H4 charts that go from chart upper left to chart lower right. So, what about tomorrow?

From the attached H4, we see PA has been bouncing within and between two ranges, which are about 150 pips wide each. Today, an intensive move up occurred, but still failed at the half number in the upper range. So, with an average daily range of about 124 pips, we could see the asian/euro sessions start by hiking the price back up a bit, followed by a good run down, basically from whole number to lower whole number. A really good run down could stretch the average range, and maybe have PA go down to the next lower half number, still within the lower range.
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  • #14,366
  • Sep 1, 2010 2:33pm Sep 1, 2010 2:33pm
Hi Sonic,

thanks a lot for your very fine analysis.

I would like to do it on my own but don´t know where to start.
Is there a full and uptodate summary here somewhere in which your analysis method is described in detail? I have read the pdf from page 1 but it seems to me that you are now following some other ways.

P.S.: It seems that I have the greatest problems with wave analysis.
  • #14,367
  • Edited 7:44pm Sep 1, 2010 7:29pm | Edited 7:44pm
Quoting CandleStar
Hi Sonic,

thanks a lot for your very fine analysis.

I would like to do it on my own but don´t know where to start.
Is there a full and uptodate summary here somewhere in which your analysis method is described in detail? I have read the pdf from page 1 but it seems to me that you are now following some other ways.

P.S.: It seems that I have the greatest problems with wave analysis.
I'm not Sonicdeejay, and when he can he may reply to you. Meanwhile, read posts #1-12, and more when you have time. Post #1 contains lots. and by the time you get to post #12, you will find post #12 a good summary.

As far as wave analysis, it ain't hard! Don't think it is hard! Just look for one of two price activity (PA) sequences just before price breaks out of the Dragon during Approved Hours. The sequence for longs is a low, then a high, then a higher low....L-H-HL. The sequence for shorts is a high, then a low, then a lower high....H-L-LH. As you read thru this thread you will see countless examples of these in charts of trades made.

Attached is an example of a proper Wave just prior to price breaking out of the Dragon. You will note, however, it did not happen during Approved Hours. Otherwise, it is a good example of a SonicR setup for a long trade. Look for this sort of configuration during Approved Hours.

Good learning to you.
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  • #14,368
  • Edited 9:12pm Sep 1, 2010 8:15pm | Edited 9:12pm
Quoting traderathome
EU Watch:

The longer term trend is down, verifiable from Weekly and H4 charts that go from chart upper left to chart lower right. So, what about tomorrow?

From the attached H4, we see PA has been bouncing within and between two ranges, which are about 150 pips wide each. Today, an intensive move up occurred, but still failed at the half number in the upper range. So, with an average daily range of about 124 pips, we could see the asian/euro sessions start by hiking the price back up a bit, followed by a good run down, basically from whole number...
EU Watch:

This could be a sign PA will be bumped up again before any substantial drive downwards. This is an M1 chart, and it shows "tons" of trading just happened around the whole number in preparation for a move, one way or the other. Since this activity is centered around a low, my guess (and that is all it is) is that PA is destined to be pumped later....maybe as preparations for a much bigger move down.

"Preparations" would be this.... As the PPMs drive the price up, they will be shorting all the way. They will be taking the short side of all that are encouraged by the move to go long. And if short stops are hit, all the better for the PPMs, as this will increase liquidity for them to do additional shorting themselves. Today could shape up as a very interesting day. For now, some are going long to take advantage of the "pump to dump" upcoming move. At least this is a senario that fits current PA/NVO, and the longer term trend...which is down!

WARNING: Speculation!
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  • #14,369
  • Sep 2, 2010 4:38am Sep 2, 2010 4:38am
Quoting foxybunny
Reviewing first 11 SonicR Live Trades.
All the below trades have been posted.

#1 AUD/USD - Short, Win ( 50pips)
#2 NZD/USD - Short, Win ( 50pips)
#3 USD/CHF - Long, Win ( 50pips)
#4 EUR/USD - Short, Loss ( -60pips)
#5 AUD/USD - Short, Loss ( -50pips)
#6 EUR/JPY - Long, Win ( 60pips)
#7 AUD/JPY - Short, Loss ( -50pips)
#8 GBP/USD - Short, Loss ( -60pips)
#9 EUR/USD - Short, Loss ( -63.5pips)
#10 GBP/USD - Short, Loss ( -70pips)
#11 NZD/USD - Short, Loss (-10pips) => This NZD/USD did hit initial TP, but I did not take it.

11 Trades
4 Wins
7 Loss
Win...
Hi FB,

I'm answering late and I don't know any other responces, if there's a one, because I still didn't read next posts. But here's my opinion :

4 Wins and 7 losses are very good results for starting with this method I believe. It takes time for things to grasp. When I started to trade with this method, I had lot worse results than you.

See it this way : If it was a few weeks job to understand this method, then why there are just few successful traders here which are trading sonicr ? It's not about the method, it's about patience, it's about hard work, it's about paying price to learn things and here's the price is your time.

Many of people who came here, leave after few days. Because they want the shortcut ... they want the easy way ... As you can see these days in advertisements, it's becoming common to say "you can easily do this and that". Companies are conning people with this believe that you can achieve many things easily. I'm not pointing at you, I'm talking in general. I can see you put your time in this ...

SonicR is not based on some BS indicators which "if it turns green = buy & if it turns red = sell" ! it's about price action. It's about basic informations. and as you know, basics needs more time to understand well than some other extras. See your education carear. when you was 7 years old, they teach you things very slowly until 12-14 years old even sometimes till 18. Because basics needs more time to understand. The good thing about Forex, is if you learn basics, you don't need 10000000 indicators to filter your trades.

I myself use volume as the only leading indicator for my sonicr entries. I may sometimes use MACD for divergence, but I don't use it in sonicR, because it doesn't need it.

You should filter your trades, and you can do that only with experiencing more trades.

I'm very busy these days and I couldn't comment on your every single trade, but I try my best to be helpful in any way that I could in this wonderful thread.

Don't get depressed on you results, because if you do and you lost your fate in this method, sooner or later, you'll leave this thread, and you'll do that on every other method.

Remember, it takes time ... The ones who wish to pay, will recieve ...

As you can see in my signature (Easy come ... Easy go ...) things that people achieve easily (like knowledge, even pips !!) they will lose it easily ... So when you try hard for something, you garantee that you will lose it hard ...

After all, it's just my 2 cents ... I hope it could help you and other new traders in this thread.

Regards,
Basber
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #14,370
  • Sep 2, 2010 5:48am Sep 2, 2010 5:48am
Quoting Basber
Hi FB,

I'm answering late and I don't know any other responces, if there's a one, because I still didn't read next posts. But here's my opinion :

4 Wins and 7 losses are very good results for starting with this method I believe. It takes time for things to grasp. When I started to trade with this method, I had lot worse results than you.

See it this way : If it was a few weeks job to understand this method, then why there are just few successful traders here which are trading sonicr ? It's not about the method, it's about patience, it's about...

Hi Basber,

Thanks for your response.
You are the only one who responded directly to this post so far.

TAH has helped with responses to my past individual trade posts.

I have put a lot-lot-lot of time in my analysis and research on forex and trading education over the years, also attended many fully paid cheap and expensive forex and trading courses.
I also have gone through SonicR thread in details from page 1 till current page at least twice.
I have been very patient, perhaps too much patience for myself!

I don't normally jump from thread to thread, just too much wasted time if I do this all the time. You need a lot of time to read from page-1 in any thread.

Yeah, it is just that after much investment in money and time, result is still frustrating.

You are right in that I need to filter for better trades, and that filter is what I am looking for and to be at the same direction more often.
This is why I understand that it is important to get the right direction from the wave formation.
It has not been obvious on getting the right wave formation yet.

I am not looking for a quick solution as I know there is not one.
Just want to improve to a better results faster than before.

Currently I am also looking to understand how to read individual price bar action and more on Volume effect as well, to improve on the trading.


Cheers,
FB.
  • #14,371
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:07am Sep 2, 2010 6:07am
Hi FB,
I expected that some more experienced trader will answere your post, what Basber has done for 100% I think.

My experience says that I am more successful when I trade fewer pairs. I was bit surprised when I saw how many pairs you trade. For example, I trade just EU and GU right now and it seems to be OK to manage that (All the trend lines drawing, Fibo + Pivot analysis in more timeframes , etc...). If I trade like 4 pairs I lose much more often and much more money then.

I even use 5M instead of 15M TF now as I feel more comfortable there.
That all helps me, maybe it will help to you as well.
Follow my trading on Twitter and FB: @pumlitch
  • #14,372
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:20am Sep 2, 2010 6:20am
Quoting traderathome
EU Watch:

This could be a sign PA will be bumped up again before any substantial drive downwards. This is an M1 chart, and it shows "tons" of trading just happened around the whole number in preparation for a move, one way or the other. Since this activity is centered around a low, my guess (and that is all it is) is that PA is destined to be pumped later....maybe as preparations for a much bigger move down.

"Preparations" would be this.... As the PPMs drive the price up, they will be shorting all the way. They will be taking the short side...
EU Watch:

Price has now been given the bit of "pump", and leading into a High Impact EU Release in about half an hour. Price might be held up until then. Following within a hour later, there is another High Impact EU Release, so price might continue to be held up until that release. So, for a bit less than an hour and a half, price might be stagnant up here in the area of yesterday's highs.

If a substantial drop is brewing, then the US session may be the time and place for its' launch. It is 25 pips up to the peak of yesterday's highs and 25 pips down to a potential break and dive move.......the watch intensifies.

WARNING: Speculation! (and lots of it!)

Let the market decide.
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  • #14,373
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:21am Sep 2, 2010 7:21am
EU Watch:

PA now has the Wave! This may be setting up for a short......
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  • #14,374
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:26am Sep 2, 2010 7:26am
Quoting traderathome
EU Watch:

PA now has the Wave! This may be setting up for a short......
Please check your PM
Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #14,375
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:42am Sep 2, 2010 7:42am
Quoting traderathome
EU Watch:

PA now has the Wave! This may be setting up for a short......
Hi TAH...

I'm watching this myself. But there is more high-impact news at 9est and again at 10est. Just wondering how you would handle this, if you would jump in now or wait til after both news releases?

Thanks!
"Be the change that you wish to see in the world." --Gandhi
  • #14,376
  • Edited 8:19am Sep 2, 2010 7:48am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting Wally1953
Hi TAH...

I'm watching this myself. But there is more high-impact news at 9est and again at 10est. Just wondering how you would handle this, if you would jump in now or wait til after both news releases?

Thanks!
I think I'd wait, let PA sort itself out and finally give us the direction. Right now PA has bolted back up (another grab at shorting at the highs?), so things are currently TOO volatile. If and when a move starts, chances are it will be a fairly good one, so there is no need to sweat trying to squeeze every last pip out of it by jumping in early! The attached shows my thinking on it if it goes south.

Edit: The whipsaw this is getting right now might just be a clue as to how the PPMs view the substantiality of the upcoming move! IMHO, and anyone can correct me on this if they have evidence, whipsaws are for no other reason than to trigger stops. This creates liquidity and enables the PPMs to "convert" those stopped out trades into their own trades! In this case, the whipsaw converted the shorts of others into belonging to the PPMs before a move down! In other words, a whipsaw is an indicator of a substantial upcoming move. And the purpose of the whipsaw by the PPMs is to attack positions of other traders that have left them at risk by having SLs too close to the current action. In essence, those attacked trades are taken over by the PPMs. The direction of the eventual move may remain unfathomable until it actually happens.

WARNING: Speculation!
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  • #14,377
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:37am Sep 2, 2010 8:37am
Quoting traderathome
I think I'd wait, let PA sort itself out and finally give us the direction. Right now PA has bolted back up (another grab at shorting at the highs?), so things are currently TOO volatile. If and when a move starts, chances are it will be a fairly good one, so there is no need to sweat trying to squeeze every last pip out of it by jumping in early! The attached shows my thinking on it if it goes south.

Edit: The whipsaw this is getting right now might just be a clue as to how the PPMs view the substantiality of the upcoming move! IMHO, and anyone...
Hi T@H

Very interesting analysis, what is PPM?
  • #14,378
  • Edited 9:00am Sep 2, 2010 8:43am | Edited 9:00am
Quoting goldsurfer
Hi T@H

Very interesting analysis, what is PPM?
PPM = Professional Price Manipulator!

Edit: Added second chart. Still waiting......
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  • #14,379
  • Sep 2, 2010 9:41am Sep 2, 2010 9:41am
Quoting traderathome
PPM = Professional Price Manipulator!

Edit: Added second chart. Still waiting......
I prefer to stand aside till it break the box.

Regards,
Basber
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Trading methods are designed to put the odds in our favor, not predicting.
  • #14,380
  • Edited 10:11am Sep 2, 2010 9:53am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting Basber
I prefer to stand aside till it break the box.

Regards,
Basber
Yes, you are probably wiser to wait. After all, there is only 15-19 pips difference from one entry to the other, and the ensuing run could be dramatic in its length. The only question remaining now is, will this happen today, or will PA go stagnant into tomorrow (last session of week) giving everyone more time to "stock up" in preparation? So far, the range today is only a bit over half that of the current normal average.
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