EURUSD

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2010-098-01_ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors (01h33 CET) 001.pdf (13.8 KB)



ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK - Majors
01 Sep 2010, 01:33

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major currency pairs today:




EUR/USD - to consolidate. Pair undermined by subdued investor risk sentiment, lingering concerns about impact of austerity measures on health of some euro-zone economies. Data focus: 0600 GMT German July retail trade, 0755 GMT German August manufacturing PMI, 0800 GMT euro-zone August manufacturing PMI. EUR/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold. Resistance at 1.2743 (yesterday's high), then at 1.2778 (Friday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.2832 (Aug. 20 high), then 1.2902 (Aug. 19 high), 1.2923 (Aug. 18 high) and psychological 1.3000. Support at 1.2623 (yesterday's low); breach would target 1.2603 (Aug. 25 low), then 1.2584 (Aug. 24 low) and 1.2520 (July 13 reaction low).



USD/JPY - to consolidate as markets await 1215 GMT U.S. August ADP national employment report, 1400 GMT U.S. August ISM manufacturing report on business. No strong cue for yen carry trades from Wall Street overnight after U.S. stocks closed mixed (DJIA up 0.05%, Nasdaq off 0.28%) despite stronger-than-expected U.S. August consumer confidence index (rose to 53.5 from revised 51.0 in July, vs 51.0 forecast); still, investor fear gauge VIX eased 4.26% to 26.05. USD/JPY undermined by concern over slowing U.S. economy highlighted in FOMC's August minutes; Japan exporter sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields, lingering views BOJ's recent monetary easing steps weren't aggressive enough to stem yen strength. But USD/JPY losses tempered by USD demand for import settlements, fears of Japan intervention in FX market. Other data focus: 1300 GMT Fed's Evans speaks, 1400 GMT U.S. July construction spending. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD flat, stochastics turned bearish; 5-day moving average below 15-day and falling. Resistance at 84.66 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 85.10 (hourly chart), then 85.92 (Monday's high), 86.39 (Aug. 13 high) and 87.02 (55-day moving average). Support at 83.80 (yesterday's low); breach would target 83.58 (15-year low set Aug. 24), then psychological round-numbered levels from 83.00 down to 80.00, and 79.70 (record low set April 19, 1995).



GBP/USD - to consolidate with bearish bias after falling one penny yesterday on strong European month-end demand for EUR/GBP cross. GBP/USD undermined by weak UK net mortgage lending in July (fell to just GBP86 million from downwardly revised GBP518 million in June, vs forecast for GBP700 million) lingering concerns over negative impact of fiscal tightening on UK economic growth. Data focus: 0830 GMT UK August CIPS manufacturing PMI. GBP/USD daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics reverting to bearish mode at oversold. Support at 1.5325 (yesterday's low, coinciding with 38.2% Fibonacci correction of advance from May 20 low of 1.4230 to Aug. 6 high of 1.6002); breach would expose downside to 1.5123 (July 21 reaction low, matching 100-day moving average and 50% correction), then psychological 1.5000 and 1.4946 (July 12 reaction low). Resistance at 1.5450 (hourly chart), then at 1.5477 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.5580 (Monday's high), then 1.5597 (Thursday's high), 1.5620 (Aug. 23 high) and 1.5672 (Aug. 19 high).



USD/CHF - to consolidate with bearish bias after hitting nearly 8-month low of 1.0132 yesterday. USD/CHF undermined by CHF demand on weak EUR/CHF as cross hit record low of 1.2850 on EBS yesterday (last 1.2872). But USD/CHF losses tempered by fears of SNB CHF-selling intervention. Data focus: 0730 GMT Swiss August SVME PMI. Daily chart negative-biased as 5-day moving average below 15-day and falling; MACD & stochastics bearish, although latter at oversold. Support 1.0127 (Jan. 11 reaction low); breach would expose downside to parity, then 0.9958 (Dec. 3, 2009 low) and 0.9914 (Nov. 26, 2009 trough). Resistance at 1.0218 (hourly chart), then at 1.0263 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.0315 (Monday's high), then 1.0328 (Aug. 25 high), 1.0452 (Aug. 24 high) and 1.0465 (Aug. 19 high).



AUD/USD - to consolidate; spotlight on 0130 GMT Australia 2Q GDP data. Pair underpinned by Aussie-USD yield gap; but gains tempered by weaker commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 3.57 yesterday at 264.19), political uncertainty in Australia. Other data focus: 0630 GMT Australia August commodity price index. AUD/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bearish, but stochastics bullish at oversold; spinning-top candlestick pattern completed yesterday. Resistance at 0.8956 (yesterday's high); breach would target 0.9000 (hourly chart), then 0.9030 (Monday's high), 0.9058 (Aug. 18 high) and 0.9082 (Aug. 17 reaction high). Support at 0.8858 (yesterday's low); breach would target 0.8842 (Friday's low), then 0.8829 (Thursday's low), 0.8769 (Aug. 24 low) and 0.8735 (July 22 low).



;-)

No problem

Mark

all eyes on ADP tomorrow . I think this may be deciding factor for dj ....may have some effect on eu and gu

Okay, summers over. Back to selling euro. Good Luck!

"your mom goes to college" - ? - I don't get it.

Anyway, last days of summer, pre NFP pre Labor Day, probably be a lotta short candles.

What do you think about the monthly close? Is it bearish or bullish?

In my trading system it is more bullish, however the monthly support (1.2610-1.2650) should be tested in next 2-3 days and if it holds then it will shoot up. So far it looks like a perfect bullish set up worth few hundred if not a thousand pips, but the support must hold first.

Hi All,

As promised I am still learning to read the candle sticks. My Guru wants me to take the risk by studying my own mistakes. Here it goes, the chart is suppose to march up north later in the afternoon. We will see the movement soon, however, it MAY go down a little before hitting the top.

Untill ADP Non-Farm Employment Change this range of 2650-2750 is the play area for me. both trend lines are strong.
The Federal Open Market Committee minutes made me more bullish on EURO region .
" Many participants noted that European countries' efforts to address their fiscal imbalances, and the release of the results of the stress test of European banks along with information about their exposures to sovereign debt, had reduced investor concern about downside risks in Europe. These factors appeared to have supported improvements in financial markets both here and abroad."

still holding my longs at 2688 and Dow 10000 is the line of sand for me.

yarrggg it looks bearish to me matey!.....it retraced over 50% of the previous bullish candle. I dont rule out a bounce above 2800 before moving down however.....this sept candle will be very very important. The area we are (roughly) at 1.25 is a big number, like .75, 1.00, 1.50.

If you look at 1.25 historically the pair has great support here....what I like for bears is that we sold off 2885 and sold off 2774, two big numbers....by no means am I chalking it up as a bear victory just yet, i need to see volume and conviction below 2500.

Is moving north today. Expected to hit 1.2716...

what time frame do you use for your candle stick reading?

Are you still short?

Get on board the Mumbai northbound

I do not know if it is going up or down. My system tells me that there is a support area just above 1.26. It might break or hold. So far I am more bullish biased, but only because the price is above it. If I see that the area holds in few days, I will be looking for a long trade to 1.3 at least with possible stretch to 1.4 or so in later months. But I will not be surprised if it breaks down and go into oblivion. Support, after all, is a support until broken, then it becomes resistance.

Is it important for EU to stay above 1.2700/1.2690 to hold the bullish sentiment?

If EU gone below 1.2700/2690, the upside movement may be capped, What you think?

I will be bullish today on euro/usd until EU will stay above 1.2700, maximum 1.2690.

Good morning/afternoon/evening all

In the calendar, big news and numbers today for USD :

- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- ISM Manufacturing PMI

green trades

I don't think so, for me between 1.2645 and 1.2740 it's a chaotic zone. impossible to decide between north or south.

Bull building strength before the news. Bear should stop it else good ADP data won't help bear

I wouldn't be so sure about that

Morning to all . long still ok for me taken yesterday .

Sorry to see a nasty post above after just open this forum , warrent clean up .

Hope doing well all.
fontu