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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #6,741
  • Aug 30, 2010 4:08am Aug 30, 2010 4:08am
Quoting GridTrader
Are you speaking for the exceptional few or for the majority?
I've yet to see a successful trader who didn't invest thousands of hours.
The majority. The hours can be better spent on other things.
  • #6,742
  • Aug 30, 2010 4:11am Aug 30, 2010 4:11am
Quoting hanover
I totally agree with your "years of study" comment, and that picking up details comes with time and experience. When I first looked at forex charts, they appeared completely random. Four years of reading, and hundreds of of screen hours, later, and I've finally discovered some tools that paint a decent enough road map for me to make some sense of the price action.

I always believed that Skunny was onto something, but I couldn't follow his teaching style.
David. We hated to see you leave, but as you now know trading anything (including fibs) takes years of study.
Just like you've said above - no different.

I'm glad to see you found something that works for you.

In all due respect, Skunny is a great guy with a good heart, however teaching was definitely not his strong point.
So don't feel bad about not being able to easily follow along.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,743
  • Aug 30, 2010 7:16am Aug 30, 2010 7:16am
Quoting GridTrader
And thanks for the GY tip. Personally looking for 131.20ish and on AJ 75.90ish.
If I'm wrong on both I'll eat Sizz's shoe. Wrong on only one, then just his shoelace.
Looks like I'll be eating steak tonight after all - which is a good thing with what I've heard regarding Sizz's feet.
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The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,744
  • Edited 7:49am Aug 30, 2010 7:22am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting Skunny
I'm not showing exactly how to trade this, but maybe this will help you all see where this idea goes on an hourly basis.

If you look at the candles on the example.

1) trade to 138
2) enter 1 position
3) enter 1 position at 61.8 and 1 at 38.2 inner fib lines

This example looks easy but only because there was a new cycle starting on the swing I pulled. So don't think you can pull like I did here. You need to learn the flow before you pull a fib.

Remember when I said watch when REAL S/R is broken? "Pin Bar"?. Pin bars are...


It seems to me that Skunny post and chart 176 is the key to anyones quest to mastering the way he trades fibs. I have studied this chart and his post here for many, many hours. While, I'm not sure if I am on the right track, I would like to share one of my observations thus far. I know how to plot s/r. No problem there. What has challenged me is Mr. Skunny's statement concerning "REAL" s/r. I have endeavored to ascertain his meaning behind this statement. In doing so, I have made an observation and would appreciate any constructive commentary. I unfortunatley discovered this thread some time after Skunny left the forum. However, I was fortunate to discover it nevertheless. Many thanks to those who have shared their thoughts on Skunny fibs. I have plotted s/r the way I normally do so (red horizontals). It seems to me that when you find a swing that somewhat conforms to this conventional way of plotting s/r, you have a starting point. Certainly hindsight is what it is but it seems to me that a VERY low risk high reward trade could be attempted in the case of my EU chart posted below.In the EU short example, I would plot s/r as I usually do by finding price flips. Once I identify a swing that corresponds with the s/r plot, I then pull the 138.2 extension fib and then watch for PA to conform to the fib span. If/when I observe the respect for the 382 extension, I can short with a small stop. The possibility of this being the beginning of a cycle that tracks price to the opposite 382 extension is the makes for a trade set up that I can be patient for. How many of these happen on a 1 hr chart in a years time? If I catch only ahalf dozen per year, I can grow my account very nicely. Over the past few months, I have gathered many examples of this phenomenon on EU. This has given me the confidence to post my idea here. It seems to me that this is one way to look at Skunny fibs at least until I get a better understanding of the concepts. Very best to all.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #6,745
  • Aug 30, 2010 8:28am Aug 30, 2010 8:28am
Quoting KissFan
It seems to me that Skunny post and chart 176 is the key to anyones quest to mastering the way he trades fibs. I have studied this chart and his post here for many, many hours. While, I'm not sure if I am on the right track, I would like to share one of my observations thus far. I know how to plot s/r. No problem there. What has challenged me is Mr. Skunny's statement concerning "REAL" s/r. I have endeavored to ascertain his meaning behind this statement. In doing so, I have made an observation and would appreciate any constructive commentary....

Hey Kiss

My distortion/understanding so far of Skunny fibbin regarding the eu chart is that we have an upside cycle completed and starting on the downside we see respect at 100 and 61.8 so it seems (from what i've seen in Skunny's charts and ThomKnight's) that since price pierces the 0 we have a valid fib and the downward 138 gonna be reached regardless. Now how to trade it enter at 0 pierce for slow and safe or maybe at the brake of the candle that shows 61.8 respect with a stop above 61.8. But im sure you know this; if it only be one hunnet(i've seen setups fail). So i know it cant be that easy abcd or "baboons would be wealthy" a wise man said.
You are right, until we figure this out the best r:r entry would be at 138 and should i add confirm with smaller fibs on lower timeframes within the bigger fib; if we have a confluence of 138s then thats a higher probability of a move, like Eggman does (i think, correct me if not). Keep posting Kissman , all the best.
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Nothing is True, Everything is Permitted.
  • #6,746
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:36am Aug 30, 2010 9:36am
I have studied Fibs for many years now and read this entire thread several times over.
I have come to one conclusion :

I believe that price movement in the market will follow many different Fib setups at the same time. In other words larger and smaller timeframe fibs all playing out at the same time.

The most important thing I have learnt though, is although the market may move in Fib ratios, it does not give any predictive element to the future price movement in the market.

I have seen countless breaks of the 0/100 and then reversals occur , instead of targets hit.

A fib may show us how the engine runs on the car, but not where the car is headed.
  • #6,747
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:44am Aug 30, 2010 9:44am
Quoting bartstop
For me, the most logical explanation is that the big players are using a method that is based on fib ratios.
But assuming that's true, doesn't it mean that - in order to have the same predictive levels plotted into the future - the big players would have to pull the fibs 'Skunny style', or in the same unconventional way that you guys are doing?

From what I've read, it seems that most bank traders make extensive use of candle high/low-based S/R, some trendlines, daily/session highs/lows, and some conventionally pulled fibs. In other words, it's a case of staying with the most visible and widely used techniques. There are other logical reasons (involving order placement) as to why S/R levels occasionally 'work', e.g. pressure plays, trapped traders.

IMO the only possible explanation for any unconventionally extrapolated levels to have any future gravitational effect is that markets behave that way in spite of themselves, or in a way that we don't yet understand. The Daniel Code is another possible example.
  • #6,748
  • Aug 30, 2010 10:01am Aug 30, 2010 10:01am
Quoting hanover
But assuming that's true, doesn't it mean that - in order to have the same predictive levels plotted into the future - the big players would have to pull the fibs 'Skunny style', or in the same unconventional way that you guys are doing?

From what I've read, it seems that most bank traders make extensive use of candle high/low-based S/R, some trendlines, daily/session highs/lows, and some conventionally pulled fibs. In other words, it's a case of staying with the most visible and widely used techniques. There are other logical reasons (involving...
I agree. If there is a legitimate, super secret pattern behind price movements, it is external to the market. The philosophical implications of such a pattern would be kind of scary. Ratio's that have knowledge of something that does not even exist yet, or what will exist should time continue. Because the market discounts fundamental data as it learns it, the fibs would not just predict prices, but world events. Sounds pretty silly to me. Determinism anyone?

I think that simple liquidity effects in an enviroment of somewhat consistant average daily volumes can explain way more about why price operates in similar ranges day to day, than all of this take it on faith guesswork.

Anyways, good post Han.
  • #6,749
  • Aug 30, 2010 11:14am Aug 30, 2010 11:14am
Could it be that skunny never revealed these secrets because they only existed in his own mind? It seems that many have plotted fibs, seen something there, some strange coincidence, some accurate target, a pattern perhaps? Yet no one can outline how to use it to their advantage and neither did skunny. Could it be that he saw something close to what the rest of us observed and could not figure it out any better than the rest of us? Seriously guys how gullible can you be? When you read the thread from start to finish you get a much better picture of who skunny was and the knowledge he had to share which was practically nothing. He peaked many traders interest in fibs, and my time spent here was great as the thread grew into something interesting, but mostly i enjoyed reading posts by traders left behind trying to figure out skunny's mysterious puzzle. Fact is, we do not have all the pieces and neither did skunny.
  • #6,750
  • Aug 30, 2010 1:32pm Aug 30, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting GridTrader
.......trading anything (including fibs) takes years of study. I'm glad to see you found something that works for you.
Thanks for your reply. For some folk like me, it apparently takes a long time; others seem to become profitable much more quickly. In my case, I would have got there 2 years earlier if I hadn't wasted time shopping around for the perfect system. Isn't hindsight a wonderful thing? LOL.

Quoting GridTrader
In all due respect, Skunny is a great guy with a good heart.
Opinion about Skunny's character seems very polarized; I'm not willing to comment further, other than to say that I've moved on. And as Igrok's signature says "great minds discuss ideas..... small minds discuss people".

Anyway, I don't think that there's much more I can learn from this thread, at least not without performing a significant amount of trial-and-error myself. So I'll just say thanks to all who replied to my questions, and let you guys get on with your fib trading.
  • #6,751
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:12pm Aug 30, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting BarneyDog
How many pips per trade are you willing to risk?

How many pips per month is your target?

Why do you have a fixation with pips ? can you spend them ? what is the PipUSD exchange rate ?

What is worth more 10 pips or 1000 pips ?
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #6,752
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:43pm Aug 30, 2010 2:43pm
Quoting BarneyDog
Purely as a metric.
IMO it's a meaningless metric . . . start thinking in %ages, forget pips, forget $s or £s . . .

Consistency first . . then the risk per trade is pretty irrelevant upto 50% . . just depends on how confident you are in your consistency, i.e. have you done proper accurate testing of your method or are you just winging it ? obviously if you are winging it you might want to risk a little . . maybe 1%

Think about it, do the maths . . .
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #6,753
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:55pm Aug 30, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting RaptorUK
IMO it's a meaningless metric . . . start thinking in %ages, forget pips, forget $s or £s . . .

Consistency first . . then the risk per trade is pretty irrelevant upto 50% . . just depends on how confident you are in your consistency, i.e. have you done proper accurate testing of your method or are you just winging it ? obviously if you are winging it you might want to risk a little . . maybe 1%

Think about it, do the maths . . .
Is 20 pips a day a metric? Is 20 pips a day too much to ask?
  • #6,754
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:16pm Aug 30, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting A-game
Intuition+discretion=ridiculous. In other words, he had nothing to show you? Perhaps you can share this ''90% accurate system'' and i will be happy to retract my statements.
No thanks, I have no desire to prove my w/l ratio to anyone and no inclination to try to teach anything to anyone.
  • #6,755
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:18pm Aug 30, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting 3 Dog Night
Hard to disappear when you forget to turn off the email notification!

So one last thought.

I would SERIOUSLY suggest all traders who have learned anything from this thread to consider my sentiments as stated above. I have only started posting recently but have learned much during 3 years of thoughtful study to these concepts. I recognize many names who have likely walked the same path. Please realize you are under no obligation to discuss anything or prove anything. Further; I would suggest you have a vested interest in not doing so.

Please consider...
Absolutely, positively agree!!! What he said!
  • #6,756
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:23pm Aug 30, 2010 3:23pm
Quoting lowell
No thanks, I have no desire to prove my w/l ratio to anyone and no inclination to try to teach anything to anyone.

Hope you've been well. It has been an interesting ride. 24%, nice.
  • #6,757
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:38pm Aug 30, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting BarneyDog
Is 20 pips a day a metric? Is 20 pips a day too much to ask?
No, it's 2 year old sig, quite ironic really . .
20 pips a day isn't too much to ask . . .
  • #6,758
  • Aug 30, 2010 3:40pm Aug 30, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting RaptorUK
No, it's 2 year old sig, quite ironic really . .
Thought so
  • #6,759
  • Aug 30, 2010 4:09pm Aug 30, 2010 4:09pm
Quoting lowell
No thanks, I have no desire to prove my w/l ratio to anyone and no inclination to try to teach anything to anyone.
Hey, that's fine, I have no problems with this, but what are you doing here then?
  • #6,760
  • Aug 30, 2010 4:44pm Aug 30, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting OGW
Hey, that's fine, I have no problems with this, but what are you doing here then?

If I am not mistaken, Lowell was one of the first in this thread a few YEARS ago. He nor anyone else owes anything to anyone. So what are you doing here? If you want to know what he learned, read the thread, I did this weekend.
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