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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #6,721
  • Edited 1:29pm Aug 29, 2010 12:37pm | Edited 1:29pm
This has once again made me remember why most good people stop posting on FF.

Thank you all.
  • #6,722
  • Aug 29, 2010 2:00pm Aug 29, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting 3 Dog Night
When class is demonstrated, it's hard to not reply!.......
Many thanks for your reply. What some people see as 'class', others might see as 'groveling'. LOL.

From what you've described, it sounds like quite a 'discretionary' process.

I'll play with some fibs again, and see if I can see any patterns. The great thing about fibs is that it's simply a case of ascertaining the levels that they need to be pulled from, after which the inner ratios (38, 62, etc) are automatically set in concrete. After that, seeing how accurately these levels align with market reversals is an objectively verifiable process.
  • #6,723
  • Edited 4:08pm Aug 29, 2010 3:55pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting A-game
Skunny was a fool and a liar. End of story.
LOL, what info do you base this statement on? I am still trading fibs only and my live account gives me all the proof that Skunny had at least a partial understanding of why the market does what it does. +24% in this past month and very similar profits for the past year or so suits me just fine.

Skunny was a very wise man and only showed enough in this thread to pique people's interest, therein lies most of the frustration that peeps spout around here. Believe it or not, makes my account and I no difference.

p.s. - Fwiw, the pay site was only to sort out those serious about following his methods. I nor any of the others from the pay site have paid a dime for membership past the first year (its been almost 3 yrs ago it opened). In fact 2 years ago before I was very profitable trading and after a serious accident, he even refunded part of my membership to help with some short term debt I had from the accident. It makes my blood boil when peeps that NEVER got close to him make absurd statements about his character. Also as a sidenote a bit of his personal trading does in fact involve his intuition. I personally have taken elements of what he has shown me and made a personalized very indiscretional, rule oriented trade method that is 90+ % profitable for me with good rr. Take care, Lowell
  • #6,724
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:25pm Aug 29, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting lowell
LOL, what info do you base this statement on?...
What ever happened to Dagoods? Is he still active over on the other forum?
  • #6,725
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:00am Aug 30, 2010 2:00am
The Nitty Gritty:

On the most basic level the adjusted-skunny style fib is stretched so that the inner fib levels perfectly highlight existing S/R. Because of this, it is not surprising to me to see that the market continues to react at what are already S/R levels. It is also a common observation that once a S/R price is broken, support becomes resistance or vice verse, the fib users around here think this is extra special when it happens on their fib line (a price which is existing S/R). As you can see on many of their charts, trades are placed at the inner fib levels and held until price hits the outer 138.2% level. You'll also notice on many of their charts (and in practice) that the 138.2 is breached (sometimes by a whole lot!). Sometimes you will get a close bounce off the 138.2, but it's rare when price hits it perfectly. The precision interplay of price off the inner fib levels is also usually off.

The Implications:

Bad:

Well, it's hardly the end of the world, but fibs are a trick on the mind. If fibs were really driving the markets and if they were really setting up the future beforehand, wouldn't price obviously reflect this with strict adherance to the fibs? In reality, the market rarely reacts perfectly to the predicted prices-- there's always room for a coincidence, but the coincidence does not prove a thing. The worst thing is this: these guys admit to spending thousands of hours 'studying' charts, not realizing that they are just glorified S/R traders, BUT, it is the trick of the mind that gives them their edge...on to the good.

Good:

I believe Lowell's 24% monthly gain figure. He might call himself a fib guru, but he's actually a disciplined S/R trader, all of the successful fib traders are. What separates these guys from your average S/R trader is the willingness to hold longer term trades. It is their belief in the fib completing the outer 138.2% level that they sit on their hands or walk away. The fib illusion gives them a reason not to take premature profits out of the market, and they therefore leave their trades on to run. Most traders will not do this because they have nothing to put their faith in to assume that the market will continue in their favor, and they instead look for lots of little trades. Lots of small losses (or big) and transaction costs kill most would be traders. The same can be said about all other forms of forward looking TA. A good example would be Paul Tudor Jones and his belief in the Elliot Wave principles.

Another obvious good thing about trading to some arbitrary extension level is that you are staying faithful to the trend. Dennis Gartman says that good news often follows good news and bad follows bad. Economically speaking, the market obviously goes through good and bad cycles (trends), but nobody really knows exactly how its going to play out. The fib boys have a system that lets them relax and ride the waves, that's what really sets them apart.

After spending the last year and a half slaving over textbooks, papers, ect, I have only mastered the art of the entry, but it's not knowing how long to hold the trades that is a real bugaboo for me. I see the fallacy in fibs, so it's naturally nerve racking for me to leave my trades on, but I have become increasingly inclined to trade to significant price benchmarks (1, 1.25, 130, 150 ect.) Not fibs (unless by coincidence), but who knows, maybe I should look at them more.

Conclusion:

The net effect of fibs for the truly faithful is mostly good, assuming they are operating on the larger time-scales.
  • #6,726
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:40am Aug 30, 2010 2:40am
That was a very well thought out post Scotty. If only more traders around here were so thorough in their explanations this forum would be a lot better off. Thank you for that. Whilst i use fibs, i see them purely as a tool like any other. God, self fulfilling prophecy, market makers i do not know, but if you can use them effectively, (even just as S/R) it matters not why they work IMHO.
  • #6,727
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:45am Aug 30, 2010 2:45am
Quoting lowell
LOL, what info do you base this statement on?...

Intuition+discretion=ridiculous. In other words, he had nothing to show you? Perhaps you can share this ''90% accurate system'' and i will be happy to retract my statements.
  • #6,728
  • Aug 30, 2010 2:47am Aug 30, 2010 2:47am
Quoting A-game
God, self fulfilling prophecy, market makers i do not know, but if you can use them effectively, (even just as S/R) it matters not why they work IMHO.
I agree 100%, especially if effectively means they continue working over the span of a long career.
  • #6,729
  • Aug 30, 2010 4:02am Aug 30, 2010 4:02am
Quoting 3 Dog Night
Honestly; I love the bashers and naysayers. They help push all but the most committed away. And that IS a good thing. Some things are better left unsaid and unknown. Those who are "supposed" to find things out and those who will commit without surrender are usually the ones who prevail. Always has been that way in most arenas of life. That having been said; I probably really do need to shut up and disappear for awhile!
Hard to disappear when you forget to turn off the email notification!

So one last thought.

I would SERIOUSLY suggest all traders who have learned anything from this thread to consider my sentiments as stated above. I have only started posting recently but have learned much during 3 years of thoughtful study to these concepts. I recognize many names who have likely walked the same path. Please realize you are under no obligation to discuss anything or prove anything. Further; I would suggest you have a vested interest in not doing so.

Please consider the current wave of naysaying. As I have stated previously; when a human being can't for the life of them understand something, a natural defense mechanism of the self-image kicks in and suggests that no one else can get it either. "Anyone who claims to have figured out something I have not been able to is fulla crap". This type of thinking reconciles things for them and they are able to sleep at night. Heck; if someone as smart as them can't get "it", there is no "it"! The more that feel this way, the more vocalizing you see. There is something psychologically pleasing in thinking you are not the only one. There is strength in numbers. "We can't all be wrong", they figure.

Having said all that; something inside them fears they "just might" be wrong
and may be missing something. Therefore; the natural thing for them to do is to ridicule, chide, or try to coax those who feel differently into "proving them wrong"!

Notice what this does:

1) It takes the responsibility off the challenger to do their own research and puts it on YOU.
2) If you do not prove them wrong publicly, they WIN (good for their self-esteem).
3) If on the slight chance you do show them something special, they WIN because you just gave them your blood, sweat, and tears for free. They will also never say "Thanks; you WERE right". They will just profit from your work and trade it themselves or maybe publish something on Ebay.

As you see; there is nothing to gain in trying to persuade. Those who have already accepted the task are putting in their 2000 hours of hard work. Those not willing to do the work try to bully it out of you while stroking their own self-images in the mean time.

Bottom line: They can't lose. You can't win. Anyone who has "it" or is on the road to "it"; realize this and let's put an end to this discussion. I had many reservations about partaking in it but the several PM's I received from others telling me they are on to things makes me glad I said what I did.

For the heck of it; one last time. Give it a bit of time but you GY'ers keep an eye on 131.80ish.

That's it. Please consider what I've said if you are inclined to engage a naysayer.

Cheerio mates, chaps, and old beans!!
Jeremiah WAS a bullfrog.
  • #6,730
  • Aug 30, 2010 4:44am Aug 30, 2010 4:44am
Quoting 3 Dog Night
So one last thought.
@ 3D

And thanks for the GY tip. Personally looking for 131.20ish and on AJ 75.90ish.
If I'm wrong on both I'll eat Sizz's shoe. Wrong on only one, then just his shoelace.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,731
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:16am Aug 30, 2010 5:16am
Quoting 3 Dog Night
For the heck of it; one last time. Give it a bit of time but you GY'ers keep an eye on 131.80ish.
That 3 Dog; he's such a kool-aid drinking crapster!

(Called putting your "REAL" money where your mouth is. Just waiting for the "How do we know that was not a demo trade?" crowd. Also; be advised that on the last chart, I push "Close Trade" before I push "Take Picture"; in case you wanted to make some other point)

Now I can really sign off. Gonna head to the pub where me and my boys will celebrate. Heck; I'll even buy the first round with my winnings!

Hasta la vista chaps & mates

(GT:)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Jeremiah WAS a bullfrog.
  • #6,732
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:18am Aug 30, 2010 5:18am
Quoting 3 Dog Night

For the heck of it; one last time. Give it a bit of time but you GY'ers keep an eye on 131.80ish.
Quoting GridTrader
@ 3D

And thanks for the GY tip. Personally looking for 131.20ish and on AJ 75.90ish.
If I'm wrong on both I'll eat Sizz's shoe. Wrong on only one, then just his shoelace.
I rest my case. 2000 hours of blood sweat and tears, 5000 hours of blood sweat and tears, you fill in the blank. It is basic S/R trading, to "ish" targets. It is your faith that floats your boats, but like I said, that's alright.
  • #6,733
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:34am Aug 30, 2010 5:34am
Quoting Scotty B
It is basic S/R trading, to "ish" targets.
I apologize. Didn't realize you were taking signals and looking for where to place your targets. It's the 138.2 target.
You already know this but you continue to justify crap anyways because you didn't get the to the pip target.

You really do have some personal issues with Skunny it seams. If others are doing well with this path of choice, then
why continue stepping on it. Be an encourager for a change. Everyone will be much better off.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,734
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:41am Aug 30, 2010 5:41am
Quoting GridTrader
I apologize. Didn't realize you were taking signals and looking for where to place your targets. It's the 138.2 target.
You already know this but you continue to justify crap anyways because you didn't get the to the pip target.
That's what I'm saying, the 138.2 target is where you are prepared to hold a trade to, but the market isn't going to stop there unless, by chance a hedge fund or someone of similar weight happens to place an order there.
  • #6,735
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:46am Aug 30, 2010 5:46am
Quoting GridTrader
Be an encourager for a change. Everyone will be much better off.
Thats what I'm doing..I'm just pointing out the obvious so that all the newbies don't get suckered into the thousands of hours thing. Just enter at S/R and hold on for dear life. What I'm not going to do is pretend there is anything more to it.
  • #6,736
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:51am Aug 30, 2010 5:51am
Quoting Scotty B
That's what I'm saying, the 138.2 target is where you are prepared to hold a trade to, but the market isn't going to stop there unless, by chance a hedge fund or someone of similar weight happens to place an order there.
I don't care where it stops. I just wanna know where it's going.

Like a hitchhiker - if someone is willing to take that person to their destination within a block or 2, why complain? You don't need to the pip hits. You wanna be that anal about it than no wonder this is so difficult for you to grasp.

Basic SR, call if whatever you want to. It doesn't matter and if it is so what? SR holds relevance in the markets - this is a no-brainer. We've found a way to trade it where fibs follow the notes it give out. That's all that matters as far as I'm concerned.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,737
  • Edited 6:01am Aug 30, 2010 5:53am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting Scotty B
...so that all the newbies don't get suckered into the thousands of hours thing...
Are you speaking for the exceptional few or for the majority?
I've yet to see a successful trader who didn't invest thousands of hours.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #6,738
  • Aug 30, 2010 6:03am Aug 30, 2010 6:03am
Quoting GridTrader
We've found a way to trade it where fibs follow the notes it give out. That's all that matters as far as I'm concerned.

Perhaps you can share? Drop some pearls of wisdom and lets get this whole thing sorted out right now...
  • #6,739
  • Aug 30, 2010 6:06am Aug 30, 2010 6:06am
Scotty

Maybe one day you will re-read all your posts and say to yourself,

"Wow, if only I had listened to what people were saying (to me) instead of looking for something negative to respond,
I could of taken years off my learning curve."


My guess........ that isn't going to happen


3 Dog, great post... I might have to post it on every page if this continues.


a-game did you miss 3Dogs post!!!
  • #6,740
  • Aug 30, 2010 6:06am Aug 30, 2010 6:06am
Quoting GridTrader
I don't care where it stops. I just wanna know where it's going.

Like a hitchhiker - if someone is willing to take that person to their destination within a block or 2, why complain? You don't need to the pip hits. You wanna be that anal about it than no wonder this is so difficult for you to grasp.

Basic SR, call if whatever you want to. It doesn't matter and if it is so what? SR holds relevance in the markets - this is a no-brainer. We've found a way to trade it where fibs follow the notes it give out. That's all that matters as far as I'm...
Dude, we are in agreement. S/R trading is not a bad thing. It is the direction of the bounce that gives you your real signal to trade, but it's the target thing that is ridiculous. It's ridiculous, but it's what saves you. Most traders won't just hold positions.
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