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  • #286,941
  • Aug 29, 2010 6:56am Aug 29, 2010 6:56am
the count on smaller tf
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  • #286,942
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:04am Aug 29, 2010 7:04am
Quoting T@rantula
PA was completely according to the plan, still better than expected USD news gave a slight boost to $. My expected TP was 2787 as I have stated 4 hours ago...and missed it by a mere 10 pips. 2817 was a possible level.

EU hasnt been detrended yet and I will still buy every single dip above 2650 according to MM levels and my system.

Some people mailed me asking how the hell could I long today, I will explain it later so everyone could use that info.


T

My analysis showed we had a bullish setup on Friday... H4 showed a reverse divergence but I noticed long wicks(reverse pins) on divergence candles and that was a signal for a bullish setup.

Starting a Friday trade I showed u a classic Momentum divergence possibly forming on H1..Weekly analysis coupled with h4 showed a possibly jump to 2817 ( I have made many posts here on FF about that-dont wanna post it again). According to MM a possible level was 2817 but 2756 showed a good resistance point.

We had US fundamentals released on Friday and the market was anticipating that. That was priced in and we had a little surprise coming in better then expected US numbers. JPY was driving the market and with the news release $ got boosted, BUT stock markets were not opened yet. My presumption was that GOOD numbers from US zone would turn the DJ bullish. DOW JONES opened green then it fell a little after Bernanke testimony. Overall sentiment was POSITIVE and Dow Jones jumped DRIVING EU up...Its that corellation...usually good news for US reflect on EU as positive because stocks markets ( DOW JONES especially) have a high correlation with EU pair. That is explained as risk aversion/risk appetite shifting. When DOW went green EU was boosted high up collecting stops validating my previous analysis of the market. Then I just needed to follow MM rules for exits.


Also looking @ H1 chart I noticed that price was rejected off 3/8 zone staying above the bottom of 3/8
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  • #286,943
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:05am Aug 29, 2010 7:05am
if the market goes below 1.27 dont go long but if it holds thats a good long with 30 pips sloss op will be first target . going above 1.2773 will confirm that wave2 is in process . position trade target 1.3050 area .
  • #286,944
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:11am Aug 29, 2010 7:11am
Quoting nawafasad1
if the market goes below 1.27 dont go long but if it holds thats a good long with 30 pips sloss op will be first target . going above 1.2773 will confirm that wave2 is in process . position trade target 1.3050 area .
Thats exactly what I have been talking about last few weeks. I dont do numbers based on Elliot but its also good to have that sort of analysis @ disposal.

I was looking @ pure FIBOs coupled with Murrey math and it showed me 2560 was a last bastion of bulls defence. If we want to touch 30xx levels again we need to hold above 2560. The bullish number shifted to 2650 on Friday but it still need to hold above 2560 level.
  • #286,945
  • Aug 29, 2010 7:49am Aug 29, 2010 7:49am
Quoting T@rantula
Thats exactly what I have been talking about last few weeks. I dont do numbers based on Elliot but its also good to have that sort of analysis @ disposal.

I was looking @ pure FIBOs coupled with Murrey math and it showed me 2560 was a last bastion of bulls defence. If we want to touch 30xx levels again we need to hold above 2560. The bullish number shifted to 2650 on Friday but it still need to hold above 2560 level.
very good analysis and its good to see murray levels in action . and as you know level 6/8 will reverse it first time pa will come to it and level 4/8 is major support in this case and that will go right with wave A 38.3 fib and wave B 50 fib of wave A and then break level 6/8 to finish wavec what will give us 2 to the upside its hard to put it in writting but you could follow it with the levels
  • #286,946
  • Aug 29, 2010 8:00am Aug 29, 2010 8:00am
Quoting fontu
There might be enough experience of all those fancy pronzies & never step in it again.
fontu
I don't think you fully understand.. Middle class and $ assess getting

destroyed by 0% rates and inflation. Yes you could be still have your

$1 but it will worth todays 0.25 not compare to EUR but compare to Pepsi Cola, Beer, Lumber,

whatever and not in 2040 as you might think, but

next 1-2 year period.. Good luck with your Dollars, dude..

Only deflation I see so far is in the peoples Salary, which has been declining in real terms

for last 10 Years. And personal Debt rising accordingly.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #286,947
  • Aug 29, 2010 8:12am Aug 29, 2010 8:12am
Quoting moonchild
There is a rumour of an Obama speech on Monday/Tuesday which may have a massive economic impact. It will not be in the nature of more QE but of a massive, and unexpected by most, influx of funds into the US.
I do not know whether this will in fact occur on those days but, just in case, I will make sure not to be shorting USD those days.
What they can do? Nothing.

There is the rumor that BO will print another Trillion $ and do stimulus

#3, before everything collapses. So that be enough time for him to leave office

using parachute at the end of his term and let other Candidate take care

of what's left.


If I just can short Democrats, that be a great Idea now.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #286,948
  • Aug 29, 2010 8:24am Aug 29, 2010 8:24am
Quoting nawafasad1
very good analysis and its good to see murray levels in action . and as you know level 6/8 will reverse it first time pa will come to it and level 4/8 is major support in this case and that will go right with wave A 38.3 fib and wave B 50 fib of wave A and then break level 6/8 to finish wavec what will give us 2 to the upside its hard to put it in writting but you could follow it with the levels
Yea, i follow the levels and octaves thou octaves does not shift automatically, need to refresh it.

Very good analysis mate, keep it up...
  • #286,949
  • Aug 29, 2010 11:23am Aug 29, 2010 11:23am
My trading plan for the week.

expecting a very volatile week since this is the confluence zone and many levels are at the crossroad.. dow has given a good bounce at 10000 along with oil and some imp commodity,at present the asset relocation from dow to usdx and bonds seemed to have been capped,

Bank of japan is having a emergency meeting this week and reports of meeting on monday.meeting is to discuss policy easing measures that could help weaken the yen.

i expect a long range play in EUR/USD between 2730 and 2800. it is buy at 2730 (SL 10 pip)and sell at 2800 . if the market decide to breakout of 2800 ( Target 2890)it will be after a triple top or a sudden spike from 2780 area when the range will be shifted from 2750 to 2780 area.

if the market breakdown below 2680(SL 10pip) i shall enter short position and if the channel break down 2587 it is short and take a vacation.

No trade for me between 2730 and 2680.
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  • #286,950
  • Aug 29, 2010 11:43am Aug 29, 2010 11:43am
Quoting T@rantula
Thats exactly what I have been talking about last few weeks. I dont do numbers based on Elliot but its also good to have that sort of analysis @ disposal.

I was looking @ pure FIBOs coupled with Murrey math and it showed me 2560 was a last bastion of bulls defence. If we want to touch 30xx levels again we need to hold above 2560. The bullish number shifted to 2650 on Friday but it still need to hold above 2560 level.
My bullish line in the sand is now 2666....so we're on the same page...
  • #286,951
  • Aug 29, 2010 11:49am Aug 29, 2010 11:49am
Quoting SkyzerFX
What they can do? Nothing.
oh come on, they're not that pathetic.
Enter Signature
  • #286,952
  • Aug 29, 2010 12:18pm Aug 29, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
What they can do? Nothing.

There is the rumor that BO will print another Trillion $ and do stimulus

#3, before everything collapses. So that be enough time for him to leave office

using parachute at the end of his term and let other Candidate take care

of what's left.


If I just can short Democrats, that be a great Idea now.
There's always rumor hahahaha
I still have one tucked up my sleeves.
Mystery Is The Final Product Of Ignorance. Hey! What's ma chart doin'
  • #286,953
  • Aug 29, 2010 12:26pm Aug 29, 2010 12:26pm
There are a few methods to make the kind of "few hundred pips move in a day" movement.

One is real capital flow and even so, this requires ALOT of capital flow, usually meaning many Central Banks coordinating together to intervene and/or many huge hedge funds liquidating their positions in the same direction.

The other, which I suspect is the case now, is the gradual build up of stops.

Not able to post an updated chart for now (my platform Dukascopy dont allow me to access it during the weekends which kind of sucks) but if you refer to the daily timeframe, we are still in the midst of a bear flag with some room for retracement movement up.

Going to the higher timeframe on the weekly and monthly, we see a downward trendline still in-tact. These higher timeframe usually takes months or a few years to change/correct. For now, we are still bearish.

Intraday-wise, looking at the charts, we can see stops accumulating below 1.2688, 1.2666, and a few supports levels below as well for LONGs. For SHORTs, stops are above 1.2780, 1.2820, 1.2850 and even higher 1.29xx or more.

So the scenario is: what if one big trigger point comes in to trigger those stops in series, either up or down? Momentum builds up quickly that way and we should break out of this range quite violently.

Any comments?
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  • #286,954
  • Aug 29, 2010 1:30pm Aug 29, 2010 1:30pm
I see a short senario, head and shoulder and reteste of the neckline
  • #286,955
  • Aug 29, 2010 2:37pm Aug 29, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting Xismal

Any comments?
"London markets close on Monday but it won't prevent #yen +
$USDX from fresh sellofs in Asia + early US trade $$"

Sell Dollar.
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  • #286,956
  • Aug 29, 2010 2:40pm Aug 29, 2010 2:40pm
could you see how the trend is moving? http://www.mypicltd.com/index.htm
I guess it will follow bearish again this week.
  • #286,957
  • Aug 29, 2010 2:54pm Aug 29, 2010 2:54pm
can this season trader come in poke noses?
  • #286,958
  • Aug 29, 2010 2:57pm Aug 29, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
What they can do? Nothing.

There is the rumor that BO will print another Trillion $ and do stimulus

#3, before everything collapses. So that be enough time for him to leave office

using parachute at the end of his term and let other Candidate take care

of what's left.


If I just can short Democrats, that be a great Idea now.
Obama could rob all Bad Banks and bury the booty and himself.
  • #286,959
  • Aug 29, 2010 2:59pm Aug 29, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting manojsai
My trading plan for the week.

expecting a very volatile week since this is the confluence zone and many levels are at the crossroad.. dow has given a good bounce at 10000 along with oil and some imp commodity,at present the asset relocation from dow to usdx and bonds seemed to have been capped,

Bank of japan is having a emergency meeting this week and reports of meeting on monday.meeting is to discuss policy easing measures that could help weaken the yen.

i expect a long range play in EUR/USD between 2730 and 2800. it is buy...
good and if so c wave down have finished seems with break at 2730 price may start very big up but may not as it seems to not the wave completed like you shown perhaps , still in 4th wave & may take more complex pattern in ending down as c wave,not understand how it can be possible though , upto 2451 my limit with medium term up intact & next 1 big 5th wave not big 3 perhaps .
anything can happen though .
mt4 not open so work on your chart instead.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #286,960
  • Aug 29, 2010 4:12pm Aug 29, 2010 4:12pm
Quoting fontu
good and if so c wave down have finished seems with break at 2730 price may start very big up but may not as it seems to not the wave completed like you shown perhaps , still in 4th wave & may take more complex pattern in ending down as c wave,not understand how it can be possible though , upto 2451 my limit with medium term up intact & next 1 big 5th wave not big 3 perhaps .
anything can happen though .
mt4 not open so work on your chart instead.
fontu
nice analysis bro i agree with you we could go up but not too much 2820 is very tough level and there is H&S formed already and 2920 is a key level for now and its a neck line until we are holding we could see 2500 or lower good luck..will short above 2800 direction can't be change until we won't clear 2820 and 2930 clearly

Ub
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