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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #18,041
  • Aug 27, 2010 12:03pm Aug 27, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting wontfindanam
You know it's time to buy when you see articles like this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-analysis.html

this drop is what mfoste1 has been saying for some time ... so why is this news contrarian ..?
  • #18,042
  • Aug 27, 2010 12:04pm Aug 27, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting bug
Why?
Well, it indicates that bearish commentary and sentiment is going off the deep end and into insanity. To me, it is an indicator of a reversal similar to when people were predicting $200 crude in 2008 and E/U parity a couple of months ago.
  • #18,043
  • Aug 27, 2010 12:09pm Aug 27, 2010 12:09pm
There were two of those spikes last night.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_JPY_15 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 80 KB
  • #18,044
  • Aug 27, 2010 12:11pm Aug 27, 2010 12:11pm
http://www.forexlive.com/128238/all/...e-before-stall
  • #18,045
  • Aug 27, 2010 12:23pm Aug 27, 2010 12:23pm
Quoting wontfindanam
Well, it indicates that bearish commentary and sentiment is going off the deep end and into insanity. To me, it is an indicator of a reversal similar to when people were predicting $200 crude in 2008 and E/U parity a couple of months ago.
Nothing has changed since I last looked. Stories like this were being run back in May around the flash crash and last week alike. The thing about sentiment these days is that you can find a story that displays the kind of sentiment that fits your outlook, either as a contrary or a confirmatory indication. In addition, there are two kinds of sentiment: one type of sentiment tells you where people have put their money (ie COT reports), the other type of sentiment is far more vague - the journalist sentiment. The slippery thing about the latter is that it depends on so many things and unlike the COT report, it is always up to interpretation.

I don't want to start discussing fundamentals and/or technicals here, but ultimately this all boils down to this one question: are you a trend trader or a countertrend trader? I personally feel much better when I am trading with the bigger trend, which is down for the UJ. I do trade against the trend when I find the setup rewarding, but by and large, I stick with the direction of the larger TF. There haven't been any convincing signs that the trend has changed for UJ, so I remain bearish. An article by Bloomberg certainly isn't something to make me change my mind. Price is what matters.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #18,046
  • Aug 28, 2010 1:05am Aug 28, 2010 1:05am
Anyone else watching this for some bullishness? Falling wedge with positive divergence on the MACD (ever so slightly). Worth watching IMO. A/D has also been moving up.

http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i1...ert/USDJPY.jpg
Get money, don't let money get you. @kauaiforex
  • #18,047
  • Aug 28, 2010 1:16am Aug 28, 2010 1:16am
Quoting wontfindanam
You know it's time to buy when you see articles like this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-analysis.html
hahaha, i agree with you. thanks for the article. anyone takes these article seriously is a square
  • #18,048
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:12am Aug 28, 2010 9:12am
went out on stopp loss friday at 1433, 15 min later the trade would give me 30 000 $ profit, market is unfair, next week USDJPY will fall again
the market moover figure at friday was clear, 1,6 increace in rev BNP is a catastrophe for USA, why is the market suddenly extatic??, i guess 3quaater show 1% increase, 4th quather show loss of 0,5%
we are soon going down real fast
The winner take it all
  • #18,049
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:16am Aug 28, 2010 9:16am
How will it be withouth printing USD and gouvernment stimuli packets, bankrupsy!!!!!!!! all over the line.
this could end in ww3 before we know.
The winner take it all
  • #18,050
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:16am Aug 28, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Norway
15 min later the trade would give me 30 000 $ profit, market is unfair
I hope you're joking.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #18,051
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:33am Aug 28, 2010 9:33am
Quoting Norway
went out on stopp loss friday at 1433, 15 min later the trade would give me 30 000 $ profit, market is unfair, next week USDJPY will fall again
the market moover figure at friday was clear, 1,6 increace in rev BNP is a catastrophe for USA, why is the market suddenly extatic??, i guess 3quaater show 1% increase, 4th quather show loss of 0,5%
we are soon going down real fast
and how exactly is the market unfair?
  • #18,052
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:35am Aug 28, 2010 9:35am
Quoting Norway
went out on stopp loss friday at 1433, 15 min later the trade would give me 30 000 $ profit, market is unfair, next week USDJPY will fall again
the market moover figure at friday was clear, 1,6 increace in rev BNP is a catastrophe for USA, why is the market suddenly extatic??, i guess 3quaater show 1% increase, 4th quather show loss of 0,5%
we are soon going down real fast
huh ???

i don't understand a single word u are saying ... !
  • #18,053
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:37am Aug 28, 2010 9:37am
Quoting Norway
How will it be withouth printing USD and gouvernment stimuli packets, bankrupsy!!!!!!!! all over the line.
this could end in ww3 before we know.
errm ... can repeat this very s-l-o-w-l-y ... i can hardly make out what u are saying ... please !
  • #18,054
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:38am Aug 28, 2010 9:38am
Quoting kandarv
There were two of those spikes last night.


dude, thats stop hunting, nothing more than a dealer intervention......call them and DEMAND immediate action. send them the screen shots. I cant believe that, I thought dukascopy was legit, goes to show you cant trust anyone. I may close my account with them, thats complete bullshit. I didnt have the spikes on my chart, but they could still do the same to me at any time.

Right now it seems like FXCM is my borker of choice, they have made some ground up recently and resolved a few of the issues i was having with them. They are making some progress to screw clients less often i guess.

all borkers suck, its the lesser of the evils.....
  • #18,055
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:48am Aug 28, 2010 9:48am
Quoting mfoste1
do you see now how the wedge broke to the bottom? shorts are preferred now.....
any change in your analysis of a bear flag and downtrend in light of the current position ..?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uj1.gif Size: 7 KB
  • #18,056
  • Aug 28, 2010 9:51am Aug 28, 2010 9:51am
Quoting TheArcher
any change in your analysis of a bear flag and downtrend in light of the current position ..?

try to fix ur tls.....


no im still bearish, this bounce was just short covering after the BOJ made their usual meaningless threat of intervention. The bear flag was reversed by BOJs threats, if they wouldnt have said anything the pair would have continued down, thats why you gotta stay on ur toes with them. Its very rare for a flag like that to get reversed....
  • #18,057
  • Aug 28, 2010 10:00am Aug 28, 2010 10:00am
Quoting mfoste1
try to fix ur tls.....

what's tls ?
  • #18,058
  • Aug 28, 2010 10:01am Aug 28, 2010 10:01am
Quoting TheArcher
what's tls ?
trendlines
  • #18,059
  • Aug 28, 2010 10:05am Aug 28, 2010 10:05am
Quoting mfoste1

The bear flag was reversed by BOJs threats, if they wouldnt have said anything the pair would have continued down, thats why you gotta stay on ur toes with them. Its very rare for a flag like that to get reversed....
was just thinking ... what if they, the BigBoys, watch every pattern and do the opposite of what the textbooks say ... we are all goners in no time ... !

if i become a "BigBoy" , then this tactic will make me an ace trader ... hahaha !

devilish grin
  • #18,060
  • Aug 28, 2010 10:07am Aug 28, 2010 10:07am
Quoting TheArcher
was just thinking ... what if they, the BigBoys, watch every pattern and do the opposite of what the textbooks say ... we are all goners in no time ... !

if i become a "BigBoy" , then this tactic will make an ace trader ... hahaha !

devilish grin
they trade off of levels of strong support and resistance.....that's basically it.
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