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EURUSD

  • #286,381
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:03pm Aug 26, 2010 12:03pm
looks more like a symm triangle that most likely will break down to me ...
  • #286,382
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:10pm Aug 26, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Z3iz3i
Big wedge forming (for upside i suppose) approx 30 pips....at 5min tf

Below .95 and things will get problematic for longs (me.)
"If it was good enough for Gann, it's good enough for me..."
  • #286,383
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:14pm Aug 26, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting Z3iz3i
Big wedge forming (for upside i suppose) approx 30 pips....at 5min tf
hmm I think that's a bear flag, might be wrong thought

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 26.08.2010 bearflag.JPG Size: 65 KB


edit : can extend lines even further to the left and make it bigger
  • #286,384
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:17pm Aug 26, 2010 12:17pm
I am looking for a bear set up on level 1.27 with the first target at 1.26
  • #286,385
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:22pm Aug 26, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting ratman
hmm I think that's a bear flag, might be wrong thought

Attachment

edit : can extend lines even further to the left and make it bigger
Hard to say, EUR crosses are well up and EG too, i based my view on that.
Crude as well, not seeing much downside now....
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #286,386
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:24pm Aug 26, 2010 12:24pm
for short term.. have a plan to buy in 2687-2695 range for 15-20 pips with tight stop loss.. no mood to short it.. yes may be if it go near to daily high again...
  • #286,387
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:31pm Aug 26, 2010 12:31pm
Why are you saying this "bad news from the US brings the dollar down, even though traditionally, people should flee to USD as a safe haven" . That's is exactly what has happened, isn't it?

Since the FED reversed the plan to exit the aggressive stimulus all #s in the US has been bad (running to safe haven given the current double dip fears)which is clearly reflected on this pair from 1.333x to 1.258x is a very good move down in less than 2 weeks (attach the no update chart to support this).

Also the current economic circumstance in the US make tomorrow #s and especially Bernanke words very important. I disagree with you on "whether good or bad doesnt matter, cos it should (speaking from the price action the past couple of days), cause the market to react negatively against the USD" not because a potential rally but oversimplifying the implication of a double dip recession in the US. A massive selloff in the US trigger by news is not something you can just take it light and gamble on a blind long... no, no in the current market levels in the US and major world indices.

sisse


Quoting kitiara
it's been kind of strange for awhile now.. bad news from the US brings the dollar down, even though traditionally, people should flee to USD as a safe haven. today's better than expected jobless claims strengthened the dollar for abit, before taking it down again.

is this because we are in a EUR bull phase now? that no matter if the news is good or bad from the US, the USD weakens?

in that case, tomorrow's GDP numbers as well as Bernanke's speech, whether good or bad doesnt matter, cos it should (speaking from the price action the past...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EuroUSDweekly9.PNG Size: 48 KB
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #286,388
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:51pm Aug 26, 2010 12:51pm
Heh.....i really cant play this as a bear flag even though its slowly drifting down.

I wonder if there are pending buy orders around 1.2690-98...
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #286,389
  • Edited 12:57pm Aug 26, 2010 12:54pm | Edited 12:57pm
In light of that,do you think we should long the EUR in anticipation of the move up?

i would be interested to hear your thoughts...[/quote] KITIARA POST# 286408

Jobless claims are losses plain and simple and unless it has a dramatic differential from one week to the next it's likened to saying the kid's cut only needed 75 stitches Wheew.. We thought he would need like a 100. As for holding a long from now thru news tomorrow I would say the probability is 60/40 for a mid term trader size account. A slight bias of magnetism upwards has been in effect since late last night EST Time Zone. I saw some members here gearing up for shorts and I advised against that, well you see where the figure went. (UP). Hold a long of you must but take into consideration a swing against you deep enough to be quite expensive. As for myself I will sideline and take the action 30 minutes after news giving all those that decided to roll the dice early the floor.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #286,390
  • Aug 26, 2010 12:55pm Aug 26, 2010 12:55pm
Intraday is still making HH and HL. IMO, in the next few hours any crack on 1.270x can trigger longs. Actually that's why I am expecting before any further move down.

CurrencyAnalyst,

Good post, I agree on watching the close today especially in the ES.
sisse

Quoting Z3iz3i
Heh.....i really cant play this as a bear flag even though its slowly drifting down.

I wonder if there are pending buy orders around 1.2690-98...
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
In light of that,do you think we should long the EUR in anticipation of the move up?

i would be interested to hear your thoughts...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #286,391
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:02pm Aug 26, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting sisse
Intraday is still making HH and HL. IMO, in the next few hours any crack on 1.270x can trigger longs. Actually that's why I am expecting before any further move down.

CurrencyAnalyst,

Good post, I agree on watching the close today especially in the ES.
sisse
Yea, true
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #286,392
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:17pm Aug 26, 2010 1:17pm
Dow Under 10, and EU/GU holding = weaker us$
  • #286,393
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:23pm Aug 26, 2010 1:23pm
On July 21, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill that the Fed's forecast called for real GDP growth of 3%-3.5% for 2010 and 3.5%-4.5% in 2011 and 2012.

Less than a month later, the Fed announced plans to buy Treasuries again (a.k.a. "QE2") and, there's a tremendous amount of dissention within the Fed about the 'right' policy prescription.

The 0830 GDP News drop should sum this weeks gloom and doom, HOWEVER It will be 90 minutes later when the Wizard begins his story time that will set the more progressive tone for the EuroDash. Do be cautious fellow traders, I see a vivid backdrop of candle-painting. hence the very calculable ranged swing action this week. Just make sure you watch-em paint in the mirror.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #286,394
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:28pm Aug 26, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
.... I see a vivid backdrop of candle-painting. hence the very calculable ranged swing action this week. Just make sure you watch-em paint in the mirror.
so...it up?...yes?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #286,395
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:37pm Aug 26, 2010 1:37pm
it's been going up. so look in the mirror means down, right?

(bear flag, range up, then break down!)

what worries me, but i do agree, is CurrAn see a first move down, then up again strong with the news and then break down the flag. or maybe i decoded his words all wrong and that's what i am expecting LOLOL

hapipipin

Quoting The Fool
so...it up?...yes?
dreams do come true.
  • #286,396
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:42pm Aug 26, 2010 1:42pm
Quoting wannaberich
it's been going up. so look in the mirror means down, right?

(bear flag, range up, then break down!)

what worries me, but i do agree, is CurrAn see a first move down, then up again strong with the news and then break down the flag. or maybe i decoded his words all wrong and that's what i am expecting LOLOL

hapipipin
I think in clear words the meaning is it will break 2600 and then 2500 by tomorrow
  • #286,397
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:45pm Aug 26, 2010 1:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
just getting a domestic energy supply.. takes 400 billion off trade deficit. in a capitalistic system things are equal. the guys who say free trade bs are full of shit.....
problem with USA isn't china alone, problem with USA is USA. like you say simply usa not competitive enough, not for years, loss of competition means loss of skills, loss of factories, like you say

all their top trading partners show USA in trade deficit, free trade or not. It isn't only cheap toys, its machinery and electrical power plants, etc and it's not only exchange rates. Like you say about domestic energy and stimulating its own internal market, some drastic changes needed for US to reverse course.

table of us top trading partners
CountryBillion USD (Jun 2009)[1]Billion USD (Dec 2009)[2]

Canada200.89429.64
China163.83365.98
Mexico138.44305.53
Japan67.47147.13
Germany53.88114.55
United Kingdom44.5393.20


Japan

TOTAL exports, imports, balance
51,134.2 95,803.7 -44,669.5

for canada, the figures:
204,658.0 226,248.4 -21,590.5

for mexico
TOTAL 128,892.1 176,654.4 -47,762.2

for Germany
TOTAL 23,199.7 38,329.4 -15,129.8

 for china
TOTAL 69,496.7 296,373.9 -226,877.2

for European union
TOTAL 220,599.3 281,800.8 -61,201.5
  • #286,398
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:47pm Aug 26, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting CurrencyAnalyst
On July 21, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill that the Fed's forecast called for real GDP growth of 3%-3.5% for 2010 and 3.5%-4.5% in 2011 and 2012.

Less than a month later, the Fed announced plans to buy Treasuries again (a.k.a. "QE2") and,...

ize is dumb i goes to a state school......what exactly are you insinuating? eurodash, vivid backdrop, candle-painting, paint in the mirror? please explain
  • #286,399
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:51pm Aug 26, 2010 1:51pm
Just watching as all closed for the day much earlier , hope we it start from 2666 to upwards as far possible next day .wish good trading for all .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #286,400
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:53pm Aug 26, 2010 1:53pm
but will it do it WITHOUT taking our stoploss first? LOL

that is the question!

Quoting Shah22
I think in clear words the meaning is it will break 2600 and then 2500 by tomorrow
dreams do come true.
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