NatGas weekly charts

yo geo, u seem as though u know ur shit.

errr gas sorry.

you're the best !

next step: is important to see if reach and break 61.8 fibo at 3.800 area after broke 50 % fibo at 4.220 area .

Tropics Flaring Up with Danielle, Frank and Other Concerns
AccuWeather.com Chief Hurricane Expert Joe Bastardi has been predicting this 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season to ramp up starting Aug. 20, and the tropics are doing just that. Bastardi still expects a "frenzy of activity" in the coming weeks.

Since Aug. 20, we've already had one named system form in the Atlantic Basin. In addition, a tropical wave that moved from the Caribbean into the Eastern Pacific also became a named storm over the weekend.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is also monitoring the potential for several more new systems to form over the Atlantic Basin this week.


Danielle

Tropical Depression 6 developed over the central Atlantic Saturday and strengthened into Tropical Storm Danielle Sunday afternoon. Danielle will likely become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday and could even strengthen into a major hurricane toward the end of the week.

Fortunately, odds are against a direct impact on the U.S. Danielle is expected to stay over water this week, passing well north and east of the Lesser Antilles then curving northward over the western Atlantic. This type of path could, however, put Bermuda and Newfoundland at risk.

Earl Around the Corner?

Another area of disturbed weather that just moved off the west coast of Africa could soon become the next named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Season.

This feature is currently battling dry air to its north. However, if it can overcome that dry air in the coming days, the system could develop into Tropical Storm Earl. Computer models show this storm taking a path similar to Danielle.

More Development Possible in Gulf of Mexico

A cold front projected to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week could help to spin up yet another tropical system. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center will be watching the western Gulf for this possible development.

Frank

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Frank formed south of Mexico over the weekend after a tropical wave crossed over from the western Caribbean. Frank is forecast to become a hurricane today and bring flooding rain and mudslides to southern Mexico over the next few days.

DAILY CHART. nice pic. see the DAILY T.L. green.

The tropics are springing to life with Hurricane Danielle expected to intensify and Earl starting to form behind it. More systems could form late this week into next week.

GEO, Yes wild season x gas has started... It's sad that not many smart people in FF follow your in depth posts. Keep up the good work.

sisse

PS: that apex long is still valid and it looks better by the day

thank you man.good luck to you too.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time.

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability Table provides intensity forecast and uncertainty information.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1...daynl#contents

WEEKLY CHART. look at this beauty . as i said 4 weeks ago, look at the down dive ... after broke T.L. red. and 50 % fibo, first target is 61.8 fibo at 3.8 area and T2 is 70.7 fibo at 3.472$.

I traded physicals for a long time when I was working with one of the majors in Eastern Europe. NG (as crude) takes a lot of research into the fundamentals of the market to be consistent.

There are lot of things that impact prices of oil and gas. Some are even cyclical and to a very large extent, predictable.

Wait for the next spat between Ukraine and Russia over non-payment for natural gas deliveries and compare that to that what happened to gas prices last year (and the year before that and before that, etc, etc).

Not saying it's an easy (or easier market) but given the nature of the supply/demand, it might well suit the analysis nuts out there (I'm one so nothing to be ashamed of).

Thanks

nice speech. thanks

Fits my style better Catalin. So much produced, so much transport capacity, so many dollars.

Not quite as simple as that but the physical element can help come decision time.

there are a few sites you can see www.firstenercastfinancial.com , also www.futurespros.com , also www.nhc.noaa.gov . all you need about natgas .

Featured Articles
Aug 25, 2010
Forecast & Analysis - Top News Stories - Financial - Releases - Weather
Natural-Gas Futures Premium Is at Narrowest in Seven Years: Energy Markets
Aug 25, 2010
By Moming Zhou - Aug 25, 2010

Natural gas for January delivery is trading at the smallest premium to September futures in seven years as traders speculate that economic growth will slow.

January futures, covering the period when North American heating demand typically peaks, were 63.3 cents higher today than gas for September delivery. That compares with an average spread of $1.57 over the past 10 years. The difference is the narrowest for the day since the summer of 2003, when stockpiles indicated ample winter inventories.

“The market is essentially signaling that it feels comfortable enough that supply will be adequate,” said Cameron Horwitz, an analyst in Houston at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Inc., a unit of Georgia’s biggest bank.

Gas futures have dropped 30 percent this year amid rising output and waning demand as the U.S. struggles to avoid sliding back into a recession. Production in March rose to 1.919 trillion cubic feet, the highest level since 1974, Energy Department data show. Fuel use by industrial consumers may be 1.4 percent lower this year than in 2008, according to the department.

Natural gas for September delivery fell as much as 14.4 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $3.895 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange today, the lowest intraday level since May 6. The contract was down 12 cents, or 3 percent, to $3.919 at 10:02 a.m. The January contract declined 8.4 cents to $4.552.

Gas for October delivery, which will become the front-month contract after September futures expire on Aug. 27, fell 11.7 cents to $3.942 per million Btu, 61 cents lower than the January contract.

La Nina

Weather in the U.S. Midwest, East and South will be mostly warmer than normal this winter as the La Nina phenomenon drives up temperatures, according to Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland. Heating demand this winter will be 29 percent lower than last year, the forecast showed.

About 72 percent of households in the Midwest use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch yesterday cut its forecast for U.S. gas futures prices in 2011 to an average of $5 per million Btu from $6 because of rising U.S. production.

The U.S. economy probably grew 1.4 percent in the second quarter, according to the median of 79 economist forecasts in a Bloomberg survey before a government report Aug. 27, down from an earlier estimate of 2.4 percent.

Gas consumption by factories, steel mills and chemical plants during the recession last year tumbled to 16.82 billion cubic feet a day, the lowest level since at least 1991, Energy Department data show. Use will average 17.92 billion cubic feet a day this year compared with 18.17 billion in 2008, according to department estimates.

Weak Demand

“Industrial demand is higher than last year but it’s still weak,” said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics, an analysis and research firm for energy companies based in London, Arkansas.

Inventory increases are less likely to be disrupted by hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico because more U.S. production takes place inland than in the past, department data show.

About 10 percent of U.S. gas output will come from federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico this year, down from 17 percent five years ago, according to Energy Department estimates. Gulf output last year totaled 2.4 trillion cubic feet, down 52 percent from 1999.

Production from shale wells rose 71 percent in 2008 from a year earlier to 2.02 trillion cubic feet, according to the most recent Energy Department data. Shale gas will account for 34 percent of total production in 2035, doubling from 17 percent in 2008, department estimates show.

Gas Supplies

U.S. stockpiles rose 27 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 13 to 3.012 trillion, the second-highest level on record for that time of the year. Storage levels last November rose to an all-time high of 3.84 trillion cubic feet.

“It basically comes down to the fact that people are just not that concerned about supply,” said Martin King, an analyst at FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary. “With storage being so high, price volatility should stay down.”

The spread between the September and January contracts was 61 cents on Aug. 25, 2003. Gas inventories that year showed a record gain of 147 billion cubic feet in the week ended July 4. Inventory increases were above the five-year average during most of that summer, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Gas prices dropped as low as $4.43 per million Btu on Sept. 26 that year. They then more than doubled to trade at $9.577 on Feb. 25 the next year as below-normal temperatures boosted demand.

Rig Count

U.S. gas drilling rigs totaled 985 last week, up 42 percent from a year earlier, according to a report from Baker Hughes Inc. on Aug. 20.

The U.S. on Aug. 5 cut its forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season to 14 to 20 named storms, from 14 to 23, because of reduced activity in the first two months of the season.

Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie this year reduced production by 8 billion cubic feet, less than the 20 billion the government had expected, the department said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Aug. 10.

To contact the reporter on this story: Moming Zhou in New York at [email protected]

Thanks for all the useful fundamental info Geo. Your calls have been right on as natty gas is almost down to the 3.8 level you called weeks ago.

Keep up the good work.

thank you man. as you can see, today almost touched target one 61.8 fibo area 3.8$ . WEEKLY CHART.

also tomorrow is storage data ,and if we have bearish move, we have a chance to see more lows ,to see the minimum of the year 2010 .

we have one hour till storage data. today seems a doji,but ....after storage data release what surprize will be ?

Dangerous Danielle Now a Category 4, Earl and Frank Maintain Intensity
Aug 27, 2010 5:22 AM
Hurricane Danielle has intensified rapidly overnight, and as of 5 a.m. the storm has maximum-sustained winds of 135 mph. This makes Danielle a dangerous Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Danielle is the first storm of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season to be classified as a major hurricane. The storm is centered near 26.5 N and 58.7 W or 545 miles southeast of Bermuda. The storm continues to move to the northwest at 12 mph.
Danielle is expected to maintain at least Category 3 intensity over the next 48 hours as it continues on a northwesterly heading. The storm will turn more to the north on Saturday and will reach its closest point to Bermuda on Sunday. The AccuWeather Eye Path track continues to take Danielle off to the east of Bermuda. The storm will begin to accelerate early next week as it turns to the northeast. As it does so, Danielle will encounter stronger southwesterly shear and cooler water temperatures. This will cause the storm to weaken after it passes east of Bermuda.
Bermuda can expect winds sustained to 30-40 mph along with a few showers or thunderstorms this weekend as the outer fringes of the storm pass over the island.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Earl continues to move quickly through the eastern Atlantic. As of 5 a.m., Earl was centered near 15.8 north and 41.6 west, or about 1,430 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum-sustained winds are still 45 mph. Earl is moving to the west at around 17 mph. The storm will continue on a west-northwest heading on Friday and Saturday, and will turn more to the northwest on Sunday.
Earl is expected to intensify over the next few days, and is likely to become a hurricane this weekend. With conditions expected to become more favorable this weekend and through early next week, Earl could become a major hurricane north of the Leeward Islands.
We will continue to monitor a broad area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico and an area of disturbed weather just south of the Cape Verde Islands for future tropical development
By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hur...er=accuweather