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Sonic R. System

  • #14,281
  • Aug 25, 2010 2:11am Aug 25, 2010 2:11am
My 11th SonicR Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
NZD/USD - Short
Date: 25-Aug-10
Time: FxPro 06:30
Entry: 0.7023
SL: 0.7083 (-60 pips) (Above H)
TP: 0.6963 (+60 pips) (Just Below Yesterday's Low)

Current Price: Around 0.7023

Reasons:
H-L-LH Wave formation.
Sonic Dragon down.
Price retrace up Above Sonic Dragon.
Price went Down past Sonic Dragon.

Attached:
H4 chart for Support & Resistance
M15 Entry, SL, TP.

I will inform of exit result no matter it is profit or loss.

** Please comment on analysis.

Thanks,
FB.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-08-25_Entry11_NZDUSD_H4.png Size: 36 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,282
  • Edited 3:21am Aug 25, 2010 3:08am | Edited 3:21am
Quoting foxybunny
My 11th SonicR Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
NZD/USD - Short
Date: 25-Aug-10
Time: FxPro 06:30
Entry: 0.7023
SL: 0.7083 (-60 pips) (Above H)
TP: 0.6963 (+60 pips) (Just Below Yesterday's Low)

Current Price: Around 0.7023

Reasons:
H-L-LH Wave formation.
Sonic Dragon down.
Price retrace up Above Sonic Dragon.
Price went Down past Sonic Dragon.

Attached:
H4 chart for Support & Resistance
M15 Entry, SL, TP.

I will inform of exit result no matter it is profit or loss.

** Please comment on analysis.

Thanks,
FB.

Attachment
Attachment ...
What broker are you using? The spreads are low.

Regarding your trades, your entries were at/near start of approved hours, but too early to get a read on what the Frankfurt Open or London Open traders would do. The HL sequence is important, but so is the consideration of when the main euro traders come to the table. There was also a EU Release, and the EU price began climbing about 10 minutes before....you did not wait for this high impact release.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,283
  • Aug 25, 2010 3:42am Aug 25, 2010 3:42am
Quoting traderathome
What broker are you using? The spreads are low.

Regarding your trades, your entries were at/near start of approved hours, but too early to get a read on what the Frankfurt Open or London Open traders would do. The HL sequence is important, but so is the consideration of when the main euro traders come to the table. There was also a EU Release, and the EU price began climbing about 10 minutes before....you did not wait for this high impact release.

Hi TAH,

The low spread you see is FxPro Demo charts. Not my broker.

I did not wait for EUR news release. EUR/USD hit SL plus extra 3.5pips due to fast movement (-63.5pips).
  • #14,284
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:07am Aug 25, 2010 6:07am
Usd/Chf Long Trade

EP 1.0306
TP 1.0395
SL 1.0283

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade5.jpg Size: 164 KB
  • #14,285
  • Edited 11:38am Aug 25, 2010 11:09am | Edited 11:38am
EU Watch:

It has been ranging all thru today's session. The two drives up are associated with high trading activity at the highs, which imho indicates shorting at the highs. The last pullup was to about the FR 62% per attached M15 chart, then PA dropped to create an EP Zone, and then pulled up again. This looks like consolidtion before a run. The question is whether there will be a run late in the session, or if not will the asian session traders tomorrow start off a run. If there is a late US session run down today, it might be worth trading. If not, and an asian session run happens tomorrow, the question will be whether to take it knowing the euro traders may pull it back up for themselves. Regardless, all these situations would involve entry during non-approved hours....reason enough to be cautious if entering a trade.

Let the market decide.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,286
  • Aug 25, 2010 11:56am Aug 25, 2010 11:56am
Quoting foxybunny
My 9th SonicR Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
EUR/USD - Short
Date: 25-Aug-10
Time: FxPro 08:00
Entry: 1.2635
SL: 1.2695 (-60 pips) (Between midway H and LH)
TP: 1.2575 (+60 pips) (Just Below Yesterday's Low)

Current Price: Around 1.2663

Reasons:
H-L-LH Wave formation.
Sonic Dragon down.
Price retrace up Above Sonic Dragon.
Price went Down past Sonic Dragon.

Attached:
H4 chart for Support & Resistance
M15 Entry, SL, TP.

I will inform of exit result no matter it is profit or loss.

** Please comment on analysis.

Thanks,
FB.

Attachment
Attachment ...

Final Result.
The above order hit SL: 1.26985 (-63.5 pips).
Broker ate the extra 3.5pips due to fast news action.

Lesson:
- As EUR red news was coming during around 1-hr after entry, may have to consider entering after news. Entered too early.
- Also there was a previous price spike up the day before, and could wait for another price spike up before entering. This mean it could have been a Long first instead of a Short.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-08-25_Exit9_EURUSD_H4.png Size: 32 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-08-25_Exit9_EURUSD_M15_HL_Short.png Size: 59 KB
  • #14,287
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:16pm Aug 25, 2010 12:16pm
UJ:

This could give us more today, depending on if PA makes it thru the resistance area and EP Zone. But the range is already nearly "full", so this will be interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,288
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:19pm Aug 25, 2010 12:19pm
Hi Tah,


I am getting a weird message on my screen that says.

"2010.08.25 19:16:08 FFCal Headlines (White) USDJPYt,M15: invalid time value for ObjectMove function"

Do you know what that means ? Because nothing has been changed.

Regards,
Hans
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #14,289
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:25pm Aug 25, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting hansma
Hi Tah,


I am getting a weird message on my screen that says.

"2010.08.25 19:16:08 FFCal Headlines (White) USDJPYt,M15: invalid time value for ObjectMove function"

Do you know what that means ? Because nothing has been changed.

Regards,
Hans
What version are you using? There has already been a coding change to correct this. If you are using a corrected version, there may be a note about this in the compile. Look and let me know.

In any case, this is one of the indys further upgraded and improved for next release.
  • #14,290
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:35pm Aug 25, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting traderathome
What version are you using? There has already been a coding change to correct this. If you are using a corrected version, there may be a note about this in the compile. Look and let me know.

In any case, this is one of the indys further upgraded and improved for next release.
Tah,

I cant find the version or see it in the indicators list - maybe it´s an old version. Do you have a link to a more updated version ?

Thanks
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #14,291
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:44pm Aug 25, 2010 12:44pm
Quoting hansma
Tah,

I cant find the version or see it in the indicators list - maybe it´s an old version. Do you have a link to a more updated version ?

Thanks
You will find the last posting of "FFCal Headlines" at:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12558

It was part of this released template, but got a quick fix right afterwards....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12483
  • #14,292
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:49pm Aug 25, 2010 12:49pm
Thanks Tah,

As always youre great in helping
"The future is already written in the past"
  • #14,293
  • Edited 1:23pm Aug 25, 2010 12:58pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting traderathome
UJ Long Trade Opened:

I entered just a bit early, a few pips below the EP zone. As with USDCHF, the UJ H4 chart has a nice pin bar.
UJ Long Trade Update:

Since entering, this has gone nowhere but down, until today. Currently, the price is hovering around my new "averaged entry price" developed by adding small components to the trade as the price dropped. Since the range is flushed out today, I don't expect price will go substantially higher. Instead, tomorrow may be the day profits will be cemented to this trade. The TP shown in the attached M15 chart is for tomorrow.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,294
  • Aug 25, 2010 1:05pm Aug 25, 2010 1:05pm
EU Watch:

And tomorrow, if UJ starts a serious climb, then maybe EU will start a serious drop. Not that they are necessarily inversely related, but both are due for such movements.....well, yes, just an opinion.

Let the market decide.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,295
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:12pm Aug 25, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting foxybunny
Final Result.
The above order hit SL: 1.26985 (-63.5 pips).
Broker ate the extra 3.5pips due to fast news action.

Lesson:
- As EUR red news was coming during around 1-hr after entry, may have to consider entering after news. Entered too early.
- Also there was a previous price spike up the day before, and could wait for another price spike up before entering. This mean it could have been a Long first instead of a Short.


Attachment
Attachment
What I do about the news, is look for the setup before it starts...... BUT, I definately dont enter until at least the news numbers come out.

I've see that what usually happens when the numbers come out as expected, is that the direction of the setup may be right, but the big boys pump and dump.

I've seen this at least 6 times now with sonic: (lets say its a short set up)

.....I get up at london open. There is a short set up forming sometime after that, but news in an hour after that. The short set up gets reversed a bit, maybe even crossing over the tunnel long, as the pair gets pumped. (My guess would be this is just big players moving the pair around for a better position to short from) Then when news hits the short is good again from the original EP. But, if you had entered before news you may have been stopped.

This happened to me today both on EU and UC, but I ended up pulling out about +45 pips between the two.
  • #14,296
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:21pm Aug 25, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting traderathome
EU Watch:

It has been ranging all thru today's session. The two drives up are associated with high trading activity at the highs, which imho indicates shorting at the highs. The last pullup was to about the FR 62% per attached M15 chart, then PA dropped to create an EP Zone, and then pulled up again. This looks like consolidtion before a run. The question is whether there will be a run late in the session, or if not will the asian session traders tomorrow start off a run. If there is a late US session run down today, it might be worth trading....

I cant agree with you :

First EURUSD is on key level trendline LTL also we have formation on H4 and expext Buy ...

You can read my thought here http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=573

This is just diferent view we will see what will market decide...


Cheers


Petar
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #14,297
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:47pm Aug 25, 2010 6:47pm
Quoting KumoDragon
What I do about the news, is look for the setup before it starts...... BUT, I definately dont enter until at least the news numbers come out.

I've see that what usually happens when the numbers come out as expected, is that the direction of the setup may be right, but the big boys pump and dump.

I've seen this at least 6 times now with sonic: (lets say its a short set up)

.....I get up at london open. There is a short set up forming sometime after that, but news in an hour after that. The short set up gets reversed a bit, maybe even crossing...
SonicR and "Releases":

Yes KumoDragon, we can never be sure how PA will behave before, at the moment of, and after an event. This past session EU started drifiting up ahead of the release, then started sprinting up ahead of the release, and completed the drive after the release. On the other hand, GU went down before the release and reversed upwards with it.

And it was unusual to see a strong move before the release, too. This is not normal.

The bottom line is "anything goes!" And indeed, anything can happen before, during and afterwards. Sometimes we see what looks like a good SonicR setting up, and it follows thru during the release for a nice run. But sometimes the opportunity explodes in our faces!

A real danger with trying to trade releases is that when PA suddenly goes against your trade, and you try to exit, your "close trade" order becomes a "market order", sitting and waiting to be executed while PA slams the trade into a steeper and steeper loss. This happens when PA is moving fast because all forex orders are market orders in truth. They are only "limit" orders in the sense that they don't get picked up for execution until the "limit" condition is hit or exceeded. Once that happens the order goes to the system as a market order....to be filled ASAP (yeah, right.)

The potential for loss here is extravagant! I have heard stories about traders losing huge sums because price swung/gapped over a hundred pips and more against them, before their "close order" finally executed.

Is taking this risk worth it? After all, don't most "release drives" reverse themselves later, in a less frenetic and dangerous environment? ....Providing a good trading opportunity without taking this insane risk?
  • #14,298
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:54pm Aug 25, 2010 6:54pm
I've been trading london open the past few weeks and have noticed a couple of tendencies that seem to repeat. I dont know if this is a regular thing or just recent behavior. But, I'd figure I'd mention them as it could help other sonic traders. I trade EU/GU/UC exclusively.

1. The sonic manual says to look for trades between 1-4 A.M. The actual open is 2 A.M. IMO, you shouldn't actually enter until 2 AM or after

What I've noticed is that while at 1 A.M there might be a sonic set up. But, what often happens is one of two things once 2 AM hits and all the traders come in for the london open.

A. The set up tottally reverses and turns into an opposite set up.
B. The set up works from the entry point at 1 AM for just a few pips maybe 15-30, then comes all the way back to the 1 AM entry point at 2 AM and THEN starts real movement in the 1 AM entry points favor.

What is the signifigance of this? The market doesn't show it's direction for the session until 2 AM. IMO, don't take a trade until at least 2 AM because a 1 AM set up may be tottally reversed OR the best entry isn't until 2 AM or after and you could have avoided some drawdown.


2. Assuming a good sonic setup I've also noticed that the earliest break out bar is almost always the best entry point. I bring this up because I've seen some other sonic traders do something that I've done a few times trying to, "improve," the sonic entry.

That is, instead of putting an entry a few pips past the breakout bar after it closes, putting entry past a local S&R, fib, or past a wave L/H that has yet to be broken thinking that from that point will come the, "big move."

Logical, but what ends up happening if the set up is good is cheating yourself out of more pips and entering in a spot that is going to get hit on a retrace.

Myself, I like moving the SL the BE at about +50 pips depending on price action and range and managing the trade from there. If you enter late it makes it quite a bit more difficult to move a trade to BE and have it not get taken out by retrace and whip before going your way.

I'm always looking for an entry from a breakout bar that is just popped out of the dragon. If it gets to far away from the tunnel I might just consider passing as the best entry is gone.

3. Retrace: This is in the manual and mentioned elsewhere, but it happens almost every time on a good sonic trade. So....

After the breakout bar (end entry) price almost always goes the way of the trade a bit then completely retraces to entry or even lower before making the first significant move.

Myself I use a hard 50 pips SL and hold on to it. I've been boned to many times getting out early thinking I was saving a full 50 hit, only to have it go -30 or -45 pips only to have the trade reverse and go my way.

Even 50 pips can be too early of SL, but it often has my stop at least behind the last wave. My personal money managment rule is to never lose more that 50 pips to keep my losses under control and consistent. My wins are anywhere between 30-100 or so, so it's working out alright.

Best SL is based on wave analysis, but often you have to enter quick. And I dont want to mess around figuring risk spread out over odd numbers of pips. I've found I can miss an entry doing that.


Entering with scripts instead of sell/buy stops: This may be my paranoia, but I feel my sell/buy stops were hunted quite a few times by my borker IBFX. They claim they dont do this, but they only make money, on the spread. And they can only make the spread if my trades actually enter. I only take 1-2 trades a day sometimes 0, so you do the math.

Quite a few times after placing buy/sell stops I've seen price come down barely touch my entry and tottally reverse. And I mean touch it and tottally go the other way, not enter and go my way for a few pips. I've also seen it hover around the entry like it was having a problem getting there, then suddenly do a spike to my entry and reverse hard.

Looked very much to me like hunting to make the spread off of me, on a trade that otherwise would not have even entered.

Soooo, what I now do instead is use a entry scripts that I can enter in the number of pips for SL & TP. So no matter where it enters the SL is 50 pips from that.

Instead of sell/buy stops a few pips past a breakout bar I draw a line. When price reaches it I can decide then based on price action to enter or not.

Magically I havn't had what was happening to me with buy/sell stop entries vs script entries.

I could be tottally paranoid, but in my mind I'm at least not showing the dealer my hand until I'm ready to bet. This puts entry even more in my control.

I hope these observations help some sonic traders.
  • #14,299
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:00pm Aug 25, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting traderathome
SonicR and "Releases":

Yes KumoDragon, we can never be sure how PA will behave before, at the moment of, and after an event. This past session EU started drifiting up ahead of the release, then started sprinting up ahead of the release, and completed the drive after the release. On the other hand, GU went down before the release and reversed upwards with it.

And it was unusual to see a strong move before the release, too. This is not normal.

The bottom line is "anything goes!" And indeed, anything can happen before, during and afterwards....
Ya come to think of it that happened to me last week on GU. Had a good sonic short going about +27 pips, then good news hit for GU.

In a blink it gapped and went long, my 50 pips stop was hit. There wasn't even time to try and make an early exit based on price action. Literally I blinked and I was taken out. It wasn't a sonic entry, but I was lucky/stupid and re entered long in the direction of the spike and got my 50 pips back.

Lesson learned, if I'm in profit before news put in a positive SL or put SL to BE if possible. (So, far even on big releases with gaps my borker has been good about letting me out at my SL and not slipping me big)
  • #14,300
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:07pm Aug 25, 2010 8:07pm
Quoting KumoDragon
I've been trading london open the past few weeks and have noticed a couple of tendencies that seem to repeat. I dont know if this is a regular thing or just recent behavior. But, I'd figure I'd mention them as it could help other sonic traders. I trade EU/GU/UC exclusively.

1. The sonic manual says to look for trades between 1-4 A.M. The actual open is 2 A.M. IMO, you shouldn't actually enter until 2 AM or after

What I've noticed is that while at 1 A.M there might be a sonic set up. But, what often happens is one of two things once 2...
I wholeheatedly agree with you, KumoDragon, about not letting the broker see your hand. For that reason, I manage EPs, SLs and TPs manually. Yes, I sometimes put TPs on the cheque. I will sometimes also put EPs and SLs on the cheque, but I try to avoid it.

If you have a competent script (what, a .mq4?) to manage orders, would you mind posting it?
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