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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,981
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:56am Aug 25, 2010 9:56am
Quoting kruc
New Home sales = not effect..
what next..

there is very low volume in markets now....wait a week, youre gonna see fireworks
  • #17,982
  • Aug 25, 2010 10:55am Aug 25, 2010 10:55am
.
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  • #17,983
  • Aug 25, 2010 10:58am Aug 25, 2010 10:58am
entered shorts a little early, but near the 50% - lookin for new lows...20 pip stop
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  • #17,984
  • Aug 25, 2010 11:09am Aug 25, 2010 11:09am
UJ could also go up from here
  • #17,985
  • Aug 25, 2010 3:22pm Aug 25, 2010 3:22pm
So, BOJ still not intervening?
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,986
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:39pm Aug 25, 2010 4:39pm
I'm thinking about going short on the UJ but there are still talks of a BOJ intervention.
One thought though, could an intervention really make a change? Take the euro and the 1 trillion dollar bailout...I understand that was because the Euro was falling not rising but isn't it the same concept? Can the BOJ do something that impacts the currency thats worth it for us to sit around and wait.
The views from some of the more prominent guys on this and other forums my view is that we should see the UJ go to about 80 give or take a few pips.
Thoughts??
  • #17,987
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:44pm Aug 25, 2010 4:44pm
BOJ intervention would be nice but I am not counting on it and I do not really care if they do or not.

Today's Durable goods data was very dismal along with just about everything else that has been coming out lately. What this pair needs is a small string of data that will beat expectatations and this pair is going to start making a good move upward. It seems like bad numbers are allready factored into the current price so any surprise to the upside should start giving this pair some momentum to the upside.

Tomorrows new unemployment claims number should have no lasting effect unless there is huge discrepancy from the 488K. Wait till next Wednesdays and Fridays employment numbers come out ( I don't think they will be good but I believe that has already been factored in for the most part ).

Fridays GDP numbers could really give a much needed boost it makes a nice surprise to the upside and if that happens it could be the thing to start turning this thing around. I would also love to see a good Personal Spending number come out on Monday. Everything hinges on that. This economy will not turn around until people go out and start buying shit again. The most recent Retail Sales numbers (8/13 ) just missed their mark by 0.1% so a good number on Monday is not out of the question.

In other words as long as it is not really bad news it is good news.

Today's numbers were really bad news I expected the Pair to make another big drop. I just woke up about an 1 hour ago expecting it to be back below 84. It got down there this morning but did not drop below and it even made a run up to close to 85.

I have a small Long position which I have locked away in a vault and plan on leaving it alone. Will add a bit more depending on Fridays GDP numbers.
  • #17,988
  • Edited 5:18pm Aug 25, 2010 5:06pm | Edited 5:18pm
Quoting ardi55
I'm thinking about going short on the UJ but there are still talks of a BOJ intervention.
One thought though, could an intervention really make a change? Take the euro and the 1 trillion dollar bailout...I understand that was because the Euro was falling not rising but isn't it the same concept? Can the BOJ do something that impacts the currency thats worth it for us to sit around and wait.
The views from some of the more prominent guys on this and other forums my view is that we should see the UJ go to about 80 give or take a few pips.
Thoughts??...
BOJ keeps talking, that's it........they have made no moves toward action on devaluing the yen. Talk is cheap in this business. I don't know if you remember, but this exactly what the SNB did when the chf was strengthening against the euro. They even "endorsed" a level where they would intervene(I believe it was 1.50). What happened? They did absolutely nothing.....look where eur/chf is today, <1.30, over 2000 pips from where they said they would act. They tried later but the pair continued to slide. In the end, they wound up holding close to 12bn euros that have been depreciating and now they are scrambling to get rid of them before they lose value even more.

Lesson? BOJ probably won't do anything serious until 80. They might sell a few yen here and there, but yen will continue to appreciate. What are they gonna do lower interest rates? lol.......their economy is on the verge of complete collapse, they have gone so far in the deflationary spiral that monetary policy doesn't even work anymore. They will be forced to start over as an economy.

Remember this, market is always king. A few spec's and gov's think they can control markets, when in reality they can't. They eventually all loose when they try to control the market. History has told us this. Look at a few examples....

Nick Leeson trying to hold Asian futures markets up single-handed, losses surpassed 450 mn and he collapsed Barings bank of London, one of the oldest banks in the city.

George Soros lost a ton of money trying to break the BOE,

The Hunt brothers in 79' 80' when they tried to corner the silver market, the price collapsed and they were left bankrupt.

There is another big player trying to corner the silver market today......they will be taken out in time.

It can't be done successfully....Read Adam Smith, he'll tell you. The "black hand" will always rule.....its power is extraordinarily strong.
  • #17,989
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:18pm Aug 25, 2010 5:18pm
I'm new to trading and have been dithering about shorting this pair for 2 days now can you believe !!! I just keep thinking how much lower can they go? but if I knew that I could really make a killing ha ha..
  • #17,990
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:21pm Aug 25, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting Maitland-W
I'm new to trading and have been dithering about shorting this pair for 2 days now can you believe !!! I just keep thinking how much lower can they go? but if I knew that I could really make a killing ha ha..
You should be happy that you did not short earlier.

I shorted yesterday and now are -90, but I am waiting since I cannot imagine how all this dismal news coming out of the US can fail to drop this pair.
  • #17,991
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:44pm Aug 25, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting Maitland-W
I'm new to trading and have been dithering about shorting this pair for 2 days now can you believe !!! I just keep thinking how much lower can they go? but if I knew that I could really make a killing ha ha..
As you are new to trading, my advice would be to stay away from this pair for time being. It can meander along like it is doing at the moment, but there could be violent swings either way....it's dangerous to your account. Keep your money in your pocket as far as this pair is concerned!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,992
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:48pm Aug 25, 2010 5:48pm
Quoting mfoste1
BOJ keeps talking, that's it........they have made no moves toward action on devaluing the yen. Talk is cheap in this business. I don't know if you remember, but this exactly what the SNB did when the chf was strengthening against the euro. They even "endorsed" a level where they would intervene(I believe it was 1.50). What happened? They did absolutely nothing.....look where eur/chf is today, <1.30, over 2000 pips from where they said they would act. They tried later but the pair continued to slide. In the end, they wound up holding close to...
Good post man!

Trading can't be done successfully if the trader is making his decisions based on intervention. Intervention, whether verbal or actual is something to bear in mind, but it's not a reason to enter a trade.....for the very reasons you explained
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,993
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:21pm Aug 25, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting mfoste1
BOJ keeps talking, that's it........they have made no moves toward action on devaluing the yen. Talk is cheap in this business. I don't know if you remember, but this exactly what the SNB did when the chf was strengthening against the euro. They even "endorsed" a level where they would intervene(I believe it was 1.50). What happened? They did absolutely nothing.....look where eur/chf is today, <1.30, over 2000 pips from where they said they would act. They tried later but the pair continued to slide. In the end, they wound up holding close to...
Brilliant post mate. It's a dangerous game to go short right now. I know you believe the pair is most likely going to hit 80 and your probably right but I think I'll wait for a break of 84 before I get in on it.
  • #17,994
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:31pm Aug 25, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting mfoste1
BOJ keeps talking, that's it........
......
They will be forced to start over as an economy.
......
It can't be done successfully....Read Adam Smith, he'll tell you. The "black hand" will always rule.....its power is extraordinarily strong.
Don't want to debate how a market can be controled; however, countries that have been forced to start over: Zimbabwe, Argentina, Iceland to name but a few from our recent past.

In each case before starting over their respective economies went into the perverbial toilet. I don't expect Japan to go down this road.

Japan will be more like Canada. USDCAD went to 0.90 (give or take) and recovered back to par. Canadian exporters have suffered a great deal with the strength of the loonie. Canadian government never steped in. The shorters came to their senses and the rebound occured.

What skewed the picture was the oil and gas exports. The loss on exports (other than Oil and Gas) was offset by the increase in the commodities market, thus leading all to believe that Canada was surviving with the dollar at par. Simply false.

USDCAD needs to be around 1.2 for Canada to function normally.

USDJPY needs to be around 0.90 for Japan to operate normally.

Today’s exchange rates will only be reflected in the numbers in a few months from now. I expect the smart money to get cold feet before then.


  • #17,995
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:36pm Aug 25, 2010 8:36pm
Comments:

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  • #17,996
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:59pm Aug 25, 2010 8:59pm
83.60?

83.58 is what I am currently calling my E5 Support which I feel is pretty strong. 83.49 is also my Daily S2.
  • #17,997
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:41am Aug 26, 2010 1:41am
Quoting bablo
Comments:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=17875
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,998
  • Aug 26, 2010 2:56am Aug 26, 2010 2:56am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/japan/
  • #17,999
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:22am Aug 26, 2010 3:22am
Just curious kruc; are you currently holding any open positions on this pair and if so what is your position?

If not, in your opinion, what is your short term outlook on this Pair?

Thanks.
  • #18,000
  • Aug 26, 2010 3:37am Aug 26, 2010 3:37am
i look down trend will be end at 80 till 79.... lowest year 1995.....
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