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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,961
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:48am Aug 25, 2010 4:48am
Quoting bug
Japanese bankers and cabinet ministers paying close attention. This is what it looks like.
LoL. Does he acts like he didn't know?
  • #17,962
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:00am Aug 25, 2010 5:00am
The H4 and H1 don't look very convincing in terms of longs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy.PNG Size: 58 KB
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #17,963
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:33am Aug 25, 2010 5:33am
This is what I think.
Japanese govt is well known at taking care if it's companies. If Yen is at 84, the money it's companies bring back home end of the month is much lower than what they expected, hurting the economy badly. So I expect the Yen to raise (dont know how...may be a pure magic ) from today till end of the month
  • #17,964
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:40am Aug 25, 2010 5:40am
Quoting PipMaxzz
This is what I think.
Japanese govt is well known at taking care if it's companies. If Yen is at 84, the money it's companies bring back home end of the month is much lower than what they expected, hurting the economy badly. So I expect the Yen to raise (dont know how...may be a pure magic ) from today till end of the month
Toyota, Nissan and Honda have been pleading for help for a while now.....meanwhile.....the govt is "watching closely"......lol.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...ince-1995.html
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,965
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:44am Aug 25, 2010 5:44am
Quoting PipMaxzz
This is what I think.
Japanese govt is well known at taking care if it's companies. If Yen is at 84, the money it's companies bring back home end of the month is much lower than what they expected, hurting the economy badly. So I expect the Yen to raise (dont know how...may be a pure magic ) from today till end of the month
is "raise" word that you mean is stronger yen? or USD/JPY will raise(bullish)?
he3 i catch more than 50 pips from 83.93, and the transaction still open, there is no target. since this is all ready very low level for USD/JPY so i would like wait for a few days, or even weeks or even month for this pair back to 88.xx or perhaps 90.xx i hope my risk management is correct even if this pair drop to a more lower level, i can still open another position.
  • #17,966
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:48am Aug 25, 2010 5:48am
Quoting yeri
is "raise" word that you mean is stronger yen? or USD/JPY will raise(bullish)?
he3 i catch more than 50 pips from 83.93, and the transaction still open, there is no target. since this is all ready very low level for USD/JPY so i would like wait for a few days, or even weeks or even month for this pair back to 88.xx or perhaps 90.xx i hope my risk management is correct even if this pair drop to a more lower level, i can still open another position.
oops...sorry I think you understand what I mean. UJ to raise (Yen to fall) steadily from today to end of month.

I would keep the longs open...moving TP to BE
  • #17,967
  • Aug 25, 2010 5:48am Aug 25, 2010 5:48am
Quoting yeri
is "raise" word that you mean is stronger yen? or USD/JPY will raise(bullish)?
he3 i catch more than 50 pips from 83.93, and the transaction still open, there is no target. since this is all ready very low level for USD/JPY so i would like wait for a few days, or even weeks or even month for this pair back to 88.xx or perhaps 90.xx i hope my risk management is correct even if this pair drop to a more lower level, i can still open another position.
Sounds like a good trade Yeri....as long as your stop loss is in profit, you have nothing to lose
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,968
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:01am Aug 25, 2010 6:01am
Quoting realjumper
Toyota, Nissan and Honda have been pleading for help for a while now.....meanwhile.....the govt is "watching closely"......lol.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...ince-1995.html
I understand most of the Jap companies esitmated UJ to be at around 90. current price at 84 means, a 7% loss due to currency overvalue, which accounts to about 1Billion loss in one month overseas revenue for Toyota alone(234B/year revenue and estimate at 75% sales from overseas). I am sure BOJ should come in within this week to do some magic
  • #17,969
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:04am Aug 25, 2010 6:04am
Quoting PipMaxzz
I understand most of the Jap companies esitmated UJ to be at around 90. current price at 84 means, a 7% loss due to currency overvalue, which accounts to about 1Billion loss in one month overseas revenue for Toyota alone(234B/year revenue and estimate at 75% sales from overseas). I am sure BOJ should come in within this week to do some magic
Well, this procrastination and copious amounts of rhetoric isn't doing their exports any favours, that's for sure!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,970
  • Edited 6:33am Aug 25, 2010 6:18am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting realjumper
Well, this procrastination and copious amounts of rhetoric isn't doing their exports any favours, that's for sure!!
Durable goods order results in an hour could be the trigger for UJ...
  • #17,971
  • Aug 25, 2010 6:38am Aug 25, 2010 6:38am
Quoting PipMaxzz
I understand most of the Jap companies esitmated UJ to be at around 90. current price at 84 means, a 7% loss due to currency overvalue, which accounts to about 1Billion loss in one month overseas revenue for Toyota alone(234B/year revenue and estimate at 75% sales from overseas). I am sure BOJ should come in within this week to do some magic
Another good example of verbal intervention. The Japanese companies have been rumored to have underestimated the strength of the yen while doing analysis for the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Every morning when I get up and ready to trade, I watch BBC's World Business Report and almost every day they mention the thread to Japanese exporters. They've been singing that same old song for about two to three weeks now. The best single example was Toyota. They said that Toyota made a big profit despite the strong yen. They also keep saying that Japanese exports are strong despite a strong yen. It all sounds good on the surface, but if you think more about it, the story falls apart. How can companies make increasing profits if they fail to hedge their yen exposure? How come the trade surplus, the figures of which were updated this morning, be as big as it is, beating analysts' estimates? Even if you figure in the Chinese demand, the story seems to be out of shape. I say that this is all part of their 'verbal intervention'. The only possible way that Japanese exporters could make the kind of profits that they did and still do is that they have figured in the rising yen. They have already hedged their exposure to foreign currencies, BUT they would still like to make even bigger profits, so they keep on singing the same old tune - profits were big despite the strong yen. All this in the hope of pushing down the yen.

Actual intervention? I believe it when I see it. No amount of verbal statements from Japan is going to push down the yen any time soon.

Disclosure: I hold no positions right now, but I'm keeping my eyes open for any shorting opportunities on the UJ.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #17,972
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:24am Aug 25, 2010 7:24am
Quoting bug
Another good example of verbal intervention. The Japanese companies have been rumored to have underestimated the strength of the yen while doing analysis for the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Every morning when I get up and ready to trade, I watch BBC's World Business Report and almost every day they mention the thread to Japanese exporters. They've been singing that same old song for about two to three weeks now. The best single example was Toyota. They said that Toyota made a big profit despite the strong yen. They also keep saying that Japanese...
I think the reason for Jap companies to do good is the increasing demand for automobiles in asia, US and other parts of the world. Most of the auto companies are doing good, as customers are spending thinking the economy has turned around (actually not) . But I do agree with you on singing the same song everyday and not doing anything. It would be interesting to see what the BOJ does next if it drops another 100 pips today
  • #17,973
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:36am Aug 25, 2010 7:36am
Quoting PipMaxzz
I think the reason for Jap companies to do good is the increasing demand for automobiles in asia, US and other parts of the world. Most of the auto companies are doing good, as customers are spending thinking the economy has turned around (actually not) . But I do agree with you on singing the same song everyday and not doing anything. It would be interesting to see what the BOJ does next if it drops another 100 pips today
Not forgetting the EU car makers where they have a low EU exchange rate which makes (argueably) better quality cars at a more competative rate.....and then of course there is Korea, which is eating into Japans market share.......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,974
  • Aug 25, 2010 7:49am Aug 25, 2010 7:49am
Core Durable goods number was bad for USD.....the hits just keep on coming.....new home sales next on the hit list!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,975
  • Aug 25, 2010 8:26am Aug 25, 2010 8:26am
Quoting PipMaxzz
I understand most of the Jap companies esitmated UJ to be at around 90. current price at 84 means, a 7% loss due to currency overvalue, which accounts to about 1Billion loss in one month overseas revenue for Toyota alone(234B/year revenue and estimate at 75% sales from overseas). I am sure BOJ should come in within this week to do some magic
By magic, do you mean save all the lemmings who cant help themselves to long en masse whenever this pair sinks 300-400 pips? I dunno, my beliefs are that the market 90% of the time will punish participants whom are "lopsided" in their positions. i.e. it will usually go where the most stops are located.
  • #17,976
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:17am Aug 25, 2010 9:17am
bad news for US, but it can not drag the USD/JPY to yesterday low. i'm still watching for tomorrow unemployment news, this will be the momentum for this week movement.
  • #17,977
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:18am Aug 25, 2010 9:18am
Quoting Warwick
By magic, do you mean save all the lemmings who cant help themselves to long en masse whenever this pair sinks 300-400 pips? I dunno, my beliefs are that the market 90% of the time will punish participants whom are "lopsided" in their positions. i.e. it will usually go where the most stops are located.
I thought Home Sales announcement would plunge USDJPY. Hmmm
  • #17,978
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:18am Aug 25, 2010 9:18am
New Home sales = not effect..
what next..
  • #17,979
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:33am Aug 25, 2010 9:33am
Quoting yeri
bad news for US, but it can not drag the USD/JPY to yesterday low. i'm still watching for tomorrow unemployment news, this will be the momentum for this week movement.
It could, but I don't think it will. If today's high impact releases (there were 2 today) had virtually no effect on currencies then tomorrow's medium impact news release will have an even smaller effect. The reason why none of those releases are able to rock the boat to either side is Friday's GDP figures (second estimate). Now that's a high impact event that will keep the fixed income, equities and currency traders away from making any making any big commitments. The first estimate was 2.4%, some are expecting the second estimate to come in at 1%. Could be lower than that, really. Nobody knows and that's why you're not going to see much action before Friday.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #17,980
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:34am Aug 25, 2010 9:34am
Market makers changing their positions with ORAL SPECULATIONS? c'moooon.
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