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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,941
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:16am Aug 25, 2010 12:16am
Quoting realjumper
Yep, I don't disagree with any of that, but such is the nature of us human beings!!

Great discussion here today. I have to leave now....back at London open
Good luck
  • #17,942
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:28am Aug 25, 2010 12:28am
Quoting PriceVolume

there are, imho, subtle signs (intentional) of accumulation on my charts....
care to share what the signs are ... or how do u know that accumulation is going on ... ?

a chart would be very helpful ...

thanks
  • #17,943
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:35am Aug 25, 2010 12:35am
Hi Everyone,
Hope everyone is doing well.

Err thought I would post my analysis. I am thick skinned so criticism is welcome

As you can see in the chart attached, price has clearly failed to close at the median line. Assuming things remain that way, my minimum target is represented by arrow pointed at the horizontal line. Should price close at the median line, I would expect a bounce targeting 88.

I am in from yesterday at 83.75.

Wish me luck!

Thanks

PS: sorry for the poor color selection
Attached Image
  • #17,944
  • Aug 25, 2010 1:20am Aug 25, 2010 1:20am
Quoting kandarv
"Intervention is futile" as some 'borgs would say

In my opinion, we should respect the economic cycles. Currently we are not, banks and governments are "intervening" too much helping those who needed to go bankrupt. That's attempting against a natural economic cycle. Prosperity, Recession, Depression, Improvement. Each time "they" intervene, is even costlier and are only delaying the inevitable.

Well said, i completely agree with you.
  • #17,945
  • Aug 25, 2010 1:25am Aug 25, 2010 1:25am
Quoting need-help
Hi Everyone,
Hope everyone is doing well.

Err thought I would post my analysis. I am thick skinned so criticism is welcome

As you can see in the chart attached, price has clearly failed to close at the median line. Assuming things remain that way, my minimum target is represented by arrow pointed at the horizontal line. Should price close at the median line, I would expect a bounce targeting 88.

I am in from yesterday at 83.75.

Wish me luck!

Thanks

PS: sorry for the poor color selection
Looks reasonable to me. At the stage we are at right now, it's very difficult to arrive at a conclusion that is highly probable. As you will have read on this thread, there are various reasons to support an up move and there are the same amount of reasons to support a down move!!

My bias is for buying the dips, with a tight stop loss, others are selling the rallys with a tight stop loss. The jury is still out as to which way this will go....and when!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,946
  • Aug 25, 2010 1:48am Aug 25, 2010 1:48am
Japan not ruling out fx intervention as policy option – Govt sources
  • #17,947
  • Aug 25, 2010 1:50am Aug 25, 2010 1:50am
Quoting Forexfsa
Japan not ruling out fx intervention as policy option – Govt sources
Which is saying nothing at all really huh? If that's supposed to frighten those who are short...it won't make any difference!! Action talks....bullshit walks
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,948
  • Aug 25, 2010 1:55am Aug 25, 2010 1:55am
Kan Holds Emergency Meeting On Rising Yen


TOKYO (Nikkei)--Prime Minister Naoto Kan discussed ways to curb the yen's recent surge Wednesday afternoon, in a meeting with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku and Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda.

Kan is expected shortly to unveil measures to cope with the yen's rise against the dollar and other major currencies, as well as to stimulate an economy that appears to be losing steam, said a Democratic Party of Japan lawmaker who was at a separate meeting with Kan and junior DPJ Diet members earlier in the day.

"Investors' bearish sentiment on both the U.S. and euro zone economies is behind the current weakness of the dollar and the euro, which is putting upward pressure on the yen," Sengoku said at a news conference on Wednesday morning.

If speculators push the yen still higher, triggering a runaway surge, both the Japanese economy and the stability of the nation's financial markets will be seriously undermined, Sengoku said. "We will pay close attention to these possibilities."

At the meeting with lawmakers, Kan said: "I am giving top priority to compiling measures (to stimulate the economy and fight the yen's rise), but the currency market will be unmoved if they are implemented one by one." He added that he will formally unveil a package of these measures shortly, according to a source at the meeting.

The yen traded at around 84.30 to the dollar in Tokyo on early Wednesday afternoon.

(The Nikkei Aug. 25 evening edition)
  • #17,949
  • Edited 2:23am Aug 25, 2010 1:57am | Edited 2:23am
Hi,
Thanks for the input. Closed my position at 41. Didn't want to play around the news.

Thanks again.
*edit* Shyts! News comes out at 4EDT! Ok this was a mistake!
Quoting realjumper
Looks reasonable to me. At the stage we are at right now, it's very difficult to arrive at a conclusion that is highly probable. As you will have read on this thread, there are various reasons to support an up move and there are the same amount of reasons to support a down move!!

My bias is for buying the dips, with a tight stop loss, others are selling the rallys with a tight stop loss. The jury is still out as to which way this will go....and when!
  • #17,950
  • Aug 25, 2010 3:19am Aug 25, 2010 3:19am
Japan PM told business leaders government to mull economic steps including fx intervention – Business Lobby Head
  • #17,951
  • Aug 25, 2010 3:41am Aug 25, 2010 3:41am
Sell usd/jpy 84.80 or better wait and sell on 84.98?
  • #17,952
  • Aug 25, 2010 3:48am Aug 25, 2010 3:48am
"Japanese investors seen buying USD/JPY and yen crosses."

Hmmmm....do they know something we don't????

Source
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,953
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:07am Aug 25, 2010 4:07am
Quoting realjumper
"Japanese investors seen buying USD/JPY and yen crosses."

Hmmmm....do they know something we don't????

Source
Yeah seems like speculators are afraid of 15% Intervention chance.
  • #17,954
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:15am Aug 25, 2010 4:15am
Quoting realjumper
"Japanese investors seen buying USD/JPY and yen crosses."

Hmmmm....do they know something we don't????

Source
Verbal intervention at its best = tell the world financial media that Japanese investors are selling the yen, thus making it look like the Japanese investors have some sort of 'inside knowledge'. The story might sound compelling to some, but for me it sounds like BS. If Japanese investors 'know' of an upcoming intervention, then British & American investors also have to 'know' about further QE plans and so forth.

EDIT.
The Japanese might be somewhat better at interpreting the BOJ's statements, but they BOJ has been sounding the alarm for quite some time now. Probability theory (as used in construction) says that if an event has been delayed, you can expect twice as much delay in the future. This means that if they've been singing the worry song for a week and haven't done anything, they will most likely sing it for another 2 weeks. This doesn't take into account any possible 'excessive' yen moves, but it still applies. Think of it this way: if you've been putting of a visit to the dentist for a week, it is likely that you will put it off for another 2 weeks. At 2 weeks, you will likely put it off for another 4 weeks.
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #17,955
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:17am Aug 25, 2010 4:17am
BOJ says Governor Shirakawa to travel to U.S. Thursday to attend Fed meeting in Jackson Hole Wyoming
  • #17,956
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:30am Aug 25, 2010 4:30am
Quoting bug
Verbal intervention at its best = tell the world financial media that Japanese investors are selling the yen, thus making it look like the Japanese investors have some sort of 'inside knowledge'. The story might sound compelling to some, but for me it sounds like BS. If Japanese investors 'know' of an upcoming intervention, then British & American investors also have to 'know' about further QE plans and so forth.

EDIT.
The Japanese might be somewhat better at interpreting the BOJ's statements, but they BOJ has been sounding the alarm for quite...
Yes I'm sure you're correct. My comment was a bit sarcastic because it would be sooooo illegal to give inside info to investors. Yes it's more of the same.....verbal intervention, but it's a bit dis-ingenious. I was hoping they could do better than that!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,957
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:33am Aug 25, 2010 4:33am
Quoting realjumper
Well that's your opinion.

What you should remember that SSI does not take into account the size of peoples trade or the size of their accounts let alone the method of trading they use or the time frame.

If a large account trader puts a long trade on here, not expecting an immediate return, that trader could do well in the long term on which he trades.

I have no position here at the moment, but it's wrong to group all retail traders as one and say that everyone who is long is stupid. You don't know anything about that group, so don't be judging...
As I have no further detailed information as to WHO is classified as a "retail trader", I have to generalize.

Of course, the methof of trading is also an important aspect : does anybody average into a position ? Anybody using quantitative methods ? Long term play / short term play ?

BUT : as a rule of thumb, this investor class is "mostly" wrong.
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,958
  • Edited 4:38am Aug 25, 2010 4:37am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting realjumper
Yes I'm sure you're correct. My comment was a bit sarcastic because it would be sooooo illegal to give inside info to investors. Yes it's more of the same.....verbal intervention, but it's a bit dis-ingenious. I was hoping they could do better than that!!
I'm not sure it's that illegal, but sure there are some punishments. FX is a very lightly regulated place, as I'm sure you know. Legality aside, anyone with prior knowledge would want to earn a lot of $$ to compensate for the risk and possible persecution. That would mean large a order, which would manifest itself in price action as it would consume orders and stop losses that are in the opposite direction. Any way you cut it, I trust price not some Japanese investors (I wouldn't consider them insightful to begin with as the Japanese economy has been dead for 20 years and all they could come up with was to buy govt bonds).
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #17,959
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:38am Aug 25, 2010 4:38am
Quoting Skylar Locke
"We will pay close attention to these possibilities."
I am utterly impressed by this wording.
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,960
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:42am Aug 25, 2010 4:42am
Japanese bankers and cabinet ministers paying close attention. This is what it looks like.
Attached Image
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
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