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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,921
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:05pm Aug 24, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting realjumper
Yes, and that's good isn't it?

yep we are in historical times
  • #17,922
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:08pm Aug 24, 2010 9:08pm
I expect London and New York to follow suit in profit taking, with the uncertainty as to whether the BOJ will step in and depreciate the Yen.

Also with the uncertainty that a further stimulus will be introduced in the US to boost the economy.
  • #17,923
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:08pm Aug 24, 2010 9:08pm
Quoting realjumper
Yes, and that's good isn't it?
Yes it is and nice to see everyone respecting each others openions without becoming nasty. Good environment.
  • #17,924
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:26pm Aug 24, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting realjumper
What 'data' is that?
All data that points to a double dip recession, slow recovery and risk aversion. Rise in unemployment, lower home sales, manufacturing index dropping... Those things are not going to be better overnight.
  • #17,925
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:28pm Aug 24, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting kandarv
All data that points to a double dip recession, slow recovery and risk aversion. Rise in unemployment, lower home sales, manufacturing index dropping... Those things are not going to be better overnight.
I agree.....but I don't see how that supports an even stronger Yen??
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,926
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:30pm Aug 24, 2010 9:30pm
Quoting Skylar Locke
Question back at you.

Would you take a sizeable position short right now, below the historical lows, with the risk of the BOJ intervening at anytime which will cause a few hundred pips spike, as well as the general panic of short coverings when that happens?

Not to mention the rumors of easing measures being talked about both in Japan and the US.
That we are at historical lows doesn't mean we can't go lower. If BoJ intervene will only put more fuel to the fire, it will work for a few 100's pips but would not be a trend reversal intervention, also I see no point of intervening if the U.S. doesn't show any sign of recovery, they will be throwing money to the bonfire. IMHO.
  • #17,927
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:32pm Aug 24, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting realjumper
I agree.....but I don't see how that supports an even stronger Yen??
JPY is considered a safe haven currency due to Japan's current account surplus reduces the country’s dependence on borrowing abroad.
  • #17,928
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:33pm Aug 24, 2010 9:33pm
Quoting kandarv
That we are at historical lows doesn't mean we can't go lower. If BoJ intervene will only put more fuel to the fire, it will work for a few 100's pips but would not be a trend reversal intervention, also I see no point of intervening if the U.S. doesn't show any sign of recovery, they will be throwing money to the bonfire. IMHO.

remember when snb tried to keep chf from strengthening? then same thing will happen with the yen......it might work for a little while, but the markets will continue as they do, only burning a hole in boj's pocket. This is what boj has done in the past and yen has continued to strengthen for some time now.
  • #17,929
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:36pm Aug 24, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting mfoste1
remember when snb tried to keep chf from strengthening? then same thing will happen with the yen......it might work for a little while, but the markets will continue as they do, only burning a hole in boj's pocket.
It's all a ticking timebomb. Trick is following the little play that is currently being performed.
  • #17,930
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:37pm Aug 24, 2010 9:37pm
Quoting mfoste1
remember when snb tried to keep chf from strengthening? then same thing will happen with the yen......
ditto...

SNB is almost in the same sit, CHF been strengthening since June. In deed we are at historical times. There's a lot of opportunities to win big and more to lose. Trade safe.
  • #17,931
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:41pm Aug 24, 2010 9:41pm
Quoting kandarv
JPY is considered a safe haven currency due to Japan's current account surplus reduces the country’s dependence on borrowing abroad.
Yes, but Japan cares more about it's own survival than it does in having a 'safe haven' tag! Also, you have to remember that Japan sells in debt internally, apart from very recently when they sold to China.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,932
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:45pm Aug 24, 2010 9:45pm
Quoting realjumper
Yes, but Japan cares more about it's own survival than it does in having a 'safe haven' tag! Also, you have to remember that Japan sells in debt internally, apart from very recently when they sold to China.
I think Japan doesn't even like the 'safe haven' status. It just is, even though Japan economy's is far from being healthy.
  • #17,933
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:50pm Aug 24, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting kandarv
I think Japan doesn't even like the 'safe haven' status. It just is, even though Japan economy's is far from being healthy.
I'm sure you're right
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,934
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:59pm Aug 24, 2010 9:59pm
Japanese PM Kan: Wants To Show Response On Strong Yen Soon

http://www.forexlive.com/127408/all/...trong-yen-soon
  • #17,935
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:05pm Aug 24, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting realjumper
I agree.....but I don't see how that supports an even stronger Yen??
Just found this on the matter, "The lower the US bond yields fall, the stronger the yen gets, intervention doesn't change that..." says Kit Juckes
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...082300503.html
  • #17,936
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:14pm Aug 24, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting kandarv
Just found this on the matter, "The lower the US bond yields fall, the stronger the yen gets, intervention doesn't change that..." says Kit Juckes
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...082300503.html
That sounds fair enough to me.....but it also illustrates how there is many variables involved here......you could really dig into this if you wanted, and you could find many reasons that support the Yen getting stronger still. However, when it comes down to it, the crux of the matter is that the strong Yen is causing considerable pain to Japan, and they will do whatever they can to stop it going up any more.

We have discussed the likelyhood of direct intervention, and we knw that it is unlikely, and we know that it doesn't really work in the long term. But, even a rat who is caught by his foot in a rat trap will knaw off his own foot to escape....even though in the long term he might die!!

What I'm saying here is that Japan's primary concern is Japan. They may have to take action that they don't want to take, if further strength in the Yen materialises......especially if it does it in the fashion that we saw yesterday. More verbal rhetoric will be the way to go unless the Yen goes ballistic again....and that can't be ruled out as yet.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,937
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:15pm Aug 24, 2010 10:15pm
(Reuters) - Japan's finance minister further sharpened his rhetoric on the yen's steep gains after the Nikkei newspaper reported Japan may consider selling the yen in unilateral intervention if speculators drive up the currency.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda told reporters he would respond appropriately as needed, an expression he has not used so far in his campaign to talk the currency down.

More Here
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,938
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:21pm Aug 24, 2010 10:21pm
BOJ only NATO = No Action Talk Only
Soon in Japan might mean before Christmas
  • #17,939
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:24pm Aug 24, 2010 10:24pm
Quoting realjumper
...
What I'm saying here is that Japan's primary concern is Japan. They may have to take action that they don't want to take, if further strength in the Yen materialises......especially if it does it in the fashion that we saw yesterday. More verbal rhetoric will be the way to go unless the Yen goes ballistic again....and that can't be ruled out as yet.
"Intervention is futile" as some 'borgs would say

In my opinion, we should respect the economic cycles. Currently we are not, banks and governments are "intervening" too much helping those who needed to go bankrupt. That's attempting against a natural economic cycle. Prosperity, Recession, Depression, Improvement. Each time "they" intervene, is even costlier and are only delaying the inevitable.
  • #17,940
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:30pm Aug 24, 2010 10:30pm
Quoting kandarv
"Intervention is futile" as some 'borgs would say

In my opinion, we should respect the economic cycles. Currently we are not, banks and governments are "intervening" too much helping those who needed to go bankrupt. That's attempting against a natural economic cycle. Prosperity, Recession, Depression, Improvement. Each time "they" intervene, is even costlier and are only delaying the inevitable.
Yep, I don't disagree with any of that, but such is the nature of us human beings!!

Great discussion here today. I have to leave now....back at London open
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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