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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,901
  • Aug 24, 2010 11:57am Aug 24, 2010 11:57am
Quoting bablo
The moment you focus on exports in a country you don't want to have the strongest currency on the block. The bottom line is overseas sales profit margins are reported in the home country currency.

Stronger Yen = lower converted profit from overseas sales.

Lower profits = stock share erosion

stock share erosion = Investor selling

[color=black][font=Verdana]Investor selling...
Good point. Soon it will be time to start taking advantage of this cycle. By soon I mean months. Or atleast when the government changes which which based on the past politics in Japan could be very soon, like next week.
  • #17,902
  • Aug 24, 2010 11:59am Aug 24, 2010 11:59am
Quoting neo1599
Closed a SHORT at 84.2, Looking for re-entry at 84.70 SL 85.2

that sounds like it may make a good entry.....I've done my math for the bear target from 94.974 and I came up with 80.063....

Its very likely we see a bounce here probably close to 85....
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  • #17,903
  • Aug 24, 2010 12:42pm Aug 24, 2010 12:42pm
(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar pared losses against the yen on Tuesday after the Nikkei business daily reported the Bank of Japan is considering additional steps to loosen monetary policy.
The paper reported that Japan's central bank may decide to take action sooner by convening an extraordinary meeting, depending on market conditions. Actions could include boosting its facility that provides three-month funding at 0.1 percent to 30 trillion yen.
The dollar was down 0.8 percent against the yen at 84.40 yen rising from the 84.13 yen level it traded at before the headlines reached investors. The low on the day was 83.61 yen.
Japan's Ministry of Finance may consider unilateral yen-selling market interventions if speculators drive up the currency, the paper said.
"The market's obviously on high alert for some form of intervention, but until we see it, the stronger yen trend will remain intact," said Brian Dolan, chief strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey. "With U.S. yields where they are, all simple intervention will do is give speculators better levels at which to buy yen.
  • #17,904
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:37pm Aug 24, 2010 3:37pm
Unbelievable. Retail traders adding to USD/JPY longs. Almost 4/5 of traders net long USD/JPY.

With other words : retailers have learned nothing and are running into the BOJ trap...I keep my shorts until total retail trader capitulation.
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,905
  • Aug 24, 2010 4:10pm Aug 24, 2010 4:10pm
agree that BOJ will probably do too little too late. But it's not likely that we will see the pair go below 79.
  • #17,906
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:35pm Aug 24, 2010 7:35pm
Quoting MisterTrader
Unbelievable. Retail traders adding to USD/JPY longs. Almost 4/5 of traders net long USD/JPY.

With other words : retailers have learned nothing and are running into the BOJ trap...I keep my shorts until total retail trader capitulation.
Well that's your opinion.

What you should remember that SSI does not take into account the size of peoples trade or the size of their accounts let alone the method of trading they use or the time frame.

If a large account trader puts a long trade on here, not expecting an immediate return, that trader could do well in the long term on which he trades.

I have no position here at the moment, but it's wrong to group all retail traders as one and say that everyone who is long is stupid. You don't know anything about that group, so don't be judging them all.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,907
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:09pm Aug 24, 2010 8:09pm
Short covering? maybe to 38.2% (84.46) or to 50% (84.70). Looking for a price to sell in a couple of hours.
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  • #17,908
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:13pm Aug 24, 2010 8:13pm
More verbal intervention:

NODA SAYS RECENT CURRENCY MOVES 'ONE-SIDED'; SAYS FINANCE MINISTRY COOPERATING WITH BOJ AND WILL TAKE NECESSARY ACTION WHEN NEEDED

Read more: DailyFX - NetDania Charts | Forex Charts from DailyFX http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdan...#ixzz0xZlmHgW1
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,909
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:14pm Aug 24, 2010 8:14pm
Quoting realjumper
Well that's your opinion.

What you should remember that SSI does not take into account the size of peoples trade or the size of their accounts let alone the method of trading they use or the time frame.

If a large account trader puts a long trade on here, not expecting an immediate return, that trader could do well in the long term on which he trades.

I have no position here at the moment, but it's wrong to group all retail traders as one and say that everyone who is long is stupid. You don't know anything about that group, so don't be judging...
If BOJ continues to sit idle (as I now suspect they will) their economy will start to show cracks.

I suspect that this new wave of world fear causing the jump to safety is nearing a reprieve and every one that jumped to the Yen will start to think “what the heck am I doing? I better get out of this before everyone wakes up.”

Not to memtion the mainstream news is starting to discuss the Yen. Another leading indicator that the end of this move down is near.

Once the Yen liquidation gets underway the reversal will happen fast. The fact that people are stating that retail investors are long and need to have their head examined really need to take a step back and think about how much the retail investor contributes to the overall volume.

I strongly believe that the retail in relation to non-retail is like comparing the water from the great lakes to the water in the world’s oceans or a flea on an elephants a**. Quite simply not worth discussing.

If more down move is to come (very possible to suck in more shorts and scare the longs) my next line in the sand comes in at 82.74 give or take a dozen pips.

Will continue to monitor but this horse is getting a little long in the tooth to me.
  • #17,910
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:30pm Aug 24, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting bablo
If BOJ continues to sit idle (as I now suspect they will) their economy will start to show cracks.

I suspect that this new wave of world fear causing the jump to safety is nearing a reprieve and every one that jumped to the Yen will start to think “what the heck am I doing? I better get out of this before everyone wakes up.”

[color=black][font=Verdana]Not to memtion the mainstream news is starting to discuss the Yen. Another leading indicator that the end of...
I couldn't agree more....very well said.

We need to remember that Japan's economy is in a very poor state. Their whole recovery from this recession id dependent on cost effective exports. It's not rocket science to see that the higher the Yen, the more it hurts exports, which in turn hurts employment, which in turn hurts the state further, which in turn hurts confidence etc etc etc....it's a downhill spiral back into a recession or worse.

I think that BOJ is very limited in what it can do about this......direct intervention doesn't seem likely, and the only tangible option left is really to step up the rhetoric....which they are doing as we speak.

I shouldn't be at all suprised to see a bit more downside to this yet, but, as you say, this is getting a bit long in the tooth now and I imagine that a reversal is not too far away.

As far as retail traders being long is concerned (86% last I looked), I am more and more inclined to dismiss the whole SSI thing as not much more than rubbish. I've looked long and hard at the whole SSI deal and in my opinion, it can be disregarded totally. The reversal, when it comes, will still see by far the largest percentage of retail traders long.....which, according to the contraian indicator (which SSI professes to be), indicates more downside!! So, the 'contraian indicator' will be wrong.....as it neccessarily *must* be nearly every time a trend changes!!!

It's interesting to see the ratio of retail traders who are long:short....but in my opinion, it's nothing more than 'interesting' but is not idicative of anything!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,911
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:35pm Aug 24, 2010 8:35pm
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...gZfwnMVQ&pos=1

one more bounce. this reminds me of the rumor bounce when it touched 84.9 last week.
  • #17,912
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:37pm Aug 24, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting realjumper
Well that's your opinion.

What you should remember that SSI does not take into account the size of peoples trade or the size of their accounts let alone the method of trading they use or the time frame.

If a large account trader puts a long trade on here, not expecting an immediate return, that trader could do well in the long term on which he trades.

I have no position here at the moment, but it's wrong to group all retail traders as one and say that everyone who is long is stupid. You don't know anything about that group, so don't be judging...
Couldn't agree more. I'm longing this quite effectively at the moment....trailing stop active. Squeezes happen for a reason. I'm not saying we won't see lower....but there's money to be made long, if one uses some sense.
  • #17,913
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:42pm Aug 24, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting PriceVolume
Couldn't agree more. I'm longing this quite effectively at the moment....trailing stop active. Squeezes happen for a reason. I'm not saying we won't see lower....but there's money to be made long, if one uses some sense.
Yes indeed....if you read back a few pages you will see that I have been doing the same thing.....since 86xx. I'm still in the green overall doing this, and to my mind, it safer than shorting at the moment. With careful watching of the pa, and carefuly placed stops, it's not too hard to make some good pips here.....if a reversal happens, I won't be caught on the wrong side of it!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,914
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:49pm Aug 24, 2010 8:49pm
Quoting realjumper
Yes indeed....if you read back a few pages you will see that I have been doing the same thing.....since 86xx. I'm still in the green overall doing this, and to my mind, it safer than shorting at the moment. With careful watching of the pa, and carefuly placed stops, it's not too hard to make some good pips here.....if a reversal happens, I won't be caught on the wrong side of it!!
You see a reversal coming soon? There's more data saying not, on the short term.
  • #17,915
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:50pm Aug 24, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting kandarv
You see a reversal coming soon? There's more data saying not, on the short term.
What 'data' is that?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,916
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:54pm Aug 24, 2010 8:54pm
Quoting kandarv
You see a reversal coming soon? There's more data saying not, on the short term.
Question back at you.

Would you take a sizeable position short right now, below the historical lows, with the risk of the BOJ intervening at anytime which will cause a few hundred pips spike, as well as the general panic of short coverings when that happens?

Not to mention the rumors of easing measures being talked about both in Japan and the US.
  • #17,917
  • Aug 24, 2010 8:56pm Aug 24, 2010 8:56pm
a lot of different opinions on this thread now i see
  • #17,918
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:01pm Aug 24, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting mfoste1
a lot of different opinions on this thread now i see
That's a good thing. Interestingly, practically everyone's right....it all boils down to timing and timeframe - not to mention technique. Proper money management with partial profits, moving to BE+ wisely, trailing stops, and senseable stoplosses work wonders.....
  • #17,919
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:01pm Aug 24, 2010 9:01pm
Quoting mfoste1
a lot of different opinions on this thread now i see
Yes, and that's good isn't it?
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,920
  • Aug 24, 2010 9:04pm Aug 24, 2010 9:04pm
Quoting mfoste1
a lot of different opinions on this thread now i see
By the way...I too see the possibility of your 85ish number....if breached convincingly, expect bulls to show no mercy....there are, imho, subtle signs (intentional) of accumulation on my charts....
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