Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#17,881
Aug 24, 2010 8:00am Aug 24, 2010 8:00am

bablo
| Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Don't shoot...I'm not JACKO! | 339 Posts

Quoting bablo

Disliked

Not looking good for the bottom finding. Daily closed under 85.174. Although not convincingly under nonetheless.

HD still in play but not for long if this lady doesn't hike up her skirt and get moving up the mountain soon.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Long bias is dissipating quickly and I'm not comfortable entering any more longs at this time. I will let a little more time pass and if the HD is invalidated and/or the hourly closes lower than 84.75 then I will...

Ignored

Took the loss and back into waiting mode. Hell and handcart are words that come to mind for the japanese economy. The true impact of the Yen value will show up in the numbers in roughly 2-3 months.

Not sure why people think that the Yen is a safe bet when the strong Yen will clearly kill the export economy. Not too mention multinational's getting less and less Yen's for their products.

One way or another the Yen will take a hit. The question is 2 months or 2 years.

As for the HD; unless we retrace half the move down of today all long posibilities are off the table.

#17,882
Aug 24, 2010 8:03am Aug 24, 2010 8:03am

Astroman
| Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2010 | 1,300 Posts

With my earlier trade I thought 84.50 would be a pretty good SL and I did not think it would be hit...at least not so quickly. Now here we are below 84 with no apparent stop to this downtrend in sight.

#17,883
Aug 24, 2010 8:09am Aug 24, 2010 8:09am

realjumper
Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Hasta la victoria siempre - El Che | 19,542 Posts

Quoting bablo

Disliked

Took the loss and back into waiting mode. Hell and handcart are words that come to mind for the japanese economy. The true impact of the Yen value will show up in the numbers in roughly 2-3 months.

Not sure why people think that the Yen is a safe bet when the strong Yen will clearly kill the export economy. Not too mention multinational's getting less and less Yen's for their products.

One way or another the Yen will take a hit. The question is 2 months or 2 years.

As for the HD; unless we retrace half the move down of today all long posibilities...

Ignored

I took the hit as well.....nothing too serious though.

I too wonder about the 'safe haven' status of the Yen, when quite clearly, Japans economy is in deep shit, and the stonger the Yen, the deeper the shit!!!

Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.

#17,884
Aug 24, 2010 8:09am Aug 24, 2010 8:09am

Astroman
| Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2010 | 1,300 Posts

Quoting mfoste1

Disliked

.....IMO there is no safe trade on this pair atm.

Ignored

I'm with you on that one. Who knows where this thing is going to end up in a week or two. Staying out for now but I'm keeping a close eye on it ... this is getting real interesting.

#17,885
Aug 24, 2010 8:13am Aug 24, 2010 8:13am

bablo
| Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Don't shoot...I'm not JACKO! | 339 Posts

Key word from Japan is: 叔父

Pronunciation: Ojisan

Meaning: Uncle

#17,886
Aug 24, 2010 8:19am Aug 24, 2010 8:19am

daniel242
| Joined Sep 2009 | Status: Trader | 99 Posts

Hope nobody minds me posting here. . . I haven't read any a lot of discussions but just a thought. You can give me a penny if you like.

While I was in Japan, I read an article in the FT about how the government is advertising for Japanese companies. The government is actively advertising overseas and wants to export some of the technology of Japanese companies like the shinkansen, high speed train, clean water technology, solar technology, sliding door technology (if you have been in Japan you know what I am talking about with the sliding doors). What a strong yen really be all that bad for this type of government?

Some exporters will be hurt by a strong yen but most exporters produce their goods in other countries. Toyota sells cars in the US that are made in Mexico and Brazil.

You can keep your pennies if you like. By the way that FT cost 600yen. The most expensive paper I have ever paid for but I really needed English

#17,887
Aug 24, 2010 8:21am Aug 24, 2010 8:21am

Forexcube
Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 27,245 Posts

Take the risk over and trade enter long with 5 positions at 0.8388

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#17,888
Aug 24, 2010 8:24am Aug 24, 2010 8:24am

mfoste1
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,390 Posts

Quoting Forexcube

Disliked

Take the risk over and trade enter long with 5 positions at 0.8388

Ignored

good luck.......

#17,889
Aug 24, 2010 8:26am Aug 24, 2010 8:26am

ivant
| Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Trader | 1 Post

It broke out of a long time range. It was always going to happen. I've been writing about it for a few weeks now. By the way, I am new here. So hello all.

But seriously I have been waiting for DOW 10,000 for quite a few weeks now, and have been short quite well throughout. There was an ascending trendline and once we closed below it, it was all over for the DOW. I was about 100 points early to the party unfortunately, but still made the better part of the move. On the page below, look at the red line.

http://thedailycable.com/?p=441

Why is the DOW important? Because it has quite a clear correlation. I will post a chart sometime.

#17,890
Aug 24, 2010 8:27am Aug 24, 2010 8:27am

kruc
| Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Trader | 15 Posts

maybe BOJ will intervention if JPY below 80.

#17,891
Aug 24, 2010 8:39am Aug 24, 2010 8:39am

Forexcube
Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 27,245 Posts

Quoting Astroman

Disliked

With my earlier trade I thought 84.50 would be a pretty good SL and I did not think it would be hit...at least not so quickly. Now here we are below 84 with no apparent stop to this downtrend in sight.

Ignored

Range Bound or Breakout?
Good day for take more risk over and Enter Long? I'll do it and with several positions of enter long! This kind of risk is 30% of all the deposits of one new risk account worth for me. If someone has 2 normal accounts over 25'000.- and 4 risk account over 5'000.-$ so get in with one 5'000.-$ risk account and with 1 or 2 lot and let it run til 92/94. It could be only the normal weekly range to trade....probability seems to be high ...so why not take the risk over with one 5'000.-$ account? Likelihood seems to be excellent in your favor...Why not?

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#17,892
Edited 8:47am Aug 24, 2010 8:44am | Edited 8:47am

bablo
| Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Don't shoot...I'm not JACKO! | 339 Posts

Quoting daniel242

Disliked

Hope nobody minds me posting here. . . I haven't read any a lot of discussions but just a thought. You can give me a penny if you like.

While I was in Japan, I read an article in the FT about how the government is advertising for Japanese companies. The government is actively advertising overseas and wants to export some of the technology of Japanese companies like the shinkansen, high speed train, clean water technology, solar technology, sliding door technology (if you have......

Ignored

The moment you focus on exports in a country you don't want to have the strongest currency on the block. The bottom line is overseas sales profit margins are reported in the home country currency.

Stronger Yen = lower converted profit from overseas sales.

Lower profits = stock share erosion

stock share erosion = Investor selling

Investor selling = cash in hand

Cash in hand = search for the best return

Over sea opportunities = Yen selling to obtain other currency to invest

Yen selling to obtain other currency to invest = Yen weakening

Yen weakening = higher converted profit from overseas sales

and the wheel goes around........

#17,893
Aug 24, 2010 8:47am Aug 24, 2010 8:47am

mfoste1
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,390 Posts

Quoting Forexcube

Disliked

Good day for take more risk over and Enter Long? I'll do it and with several positions of enter long! This kind of risk is 30% of all the deposits of one new risk account worth for me. If someone has 2 normal accounts over 25'000.- and 4 risk account over 5'000.-$ so get in with one 5'000.-$ risk account and with 1 or 2 lot and let it run til 92/94. It could be only the normal weekly range to trade....probability seems to be high ...

Ignored

Glad youre not managing my money

high probability? based on what?

there is no high probability here.........

boj doesnt have a plan, heavy yen buying against all pairs, nikkei closed below 9k, us housing data expected to be terrible, equity markets are having trouble finding support.......yea take on some risk here

#17,894
Aug 24, 2010 9:00am Aug 24, 2010 9:00am

Forexcube
Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Trader | 27,245 Posts

Quoting mfoste1

Disliked

Glad youre not managing my money

high probability? based on what?there is no high probability here.........

boj doesnt have a plan, heavy yen buying against all pairs, nikkei closed below 9k, us housing data expected to be terrible, equity markets are having trouble finding support.......yea take on some risk here

Ignored

So might be better you go in a panic room?

#17,895
Aug 24, 2010 9:02am Aug 24, 2010 9:02am

USD-Bear
Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts

Peeking in here again, well seems the SL-hunting below 85 has started.
Not buying yet, but imo, we could get there very fast, let's see if UJ can write history

Ref. FXCM:
Attachment

Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself

#17,896
Aug 24, 2010 9:04am Aug 24, 2010 9:04am

mfoste1
Joined Jun 2009 | Status: A slave to the tape | 4,390 Posts

next support is 82.80..............

#17,897
Aug 24, 2010 9:04am Aug 24, 2010 9:04am

Patience
Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Trader | 7,219 Posts

Not sure if it has been mentioned already but some bloke on Bloomberg said recently that the BoJ could lower the corporation tax to combat Yen strength and to help out the companies that export. I know that doesn't help their fiscal situation but they are still a nation with a current account surplus unlike most of the countries out there.

Nothing worth having is easy.