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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #17,861
  • Aug 23, 2010 10:34pm Aug 23, 2010 10:34pm
Quoting auxesis
Last Thursday's Unemployment and Philly Fed tried hard to break the 85.00 only to run into something big underneath... Knock enough times and it will eventually give but there's little momentum on this drive, Back to at least mid range 85.40-50 if not the range top, imho.............

fwiw
I can't argue with that.
  • #17,862
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:01am Aug 24, 2010 3:01am
Quoting MisterTrader
Of course retail traders are not moving this pair. But you can use them as a proxy for your timing. As retail traders are "not winners", you have to stay short USD/JPY. Right now, retailers are massive long. At they very moment retailers capitulate and "flip" to the short side => strong buy.
Last print 84.53. As expected. There is nothing as highly predictable as retail traders missing "THE POINT"...
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,863
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:10am Aug 24, 2010 3:10am
Buy order is now activated. Japan Finance minister to make an announcement at 0800 gmt
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,864
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:14am Aug 24, 2010 3:14am
How low this pair will go?i read some news at bloomberg a few week ago, and many news predict that this pair will drop to 80.xx. I can not believe that now the usd/jpy break the 84.50 i belive there will be more drop to 83.xx since the 84.xx is breach quitw easy. And the only thing that can stop this is the japan gov intervention.
  • #17,865
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:20am Aug 24, 2010 3:20am
Quoting yeri
How low this pair will go?i read some news at bloomberg a few week ago, and many news predict that this pair will drop to 80.xx. I can not believe that now the usd/jpy break the 84.50 i belive there will be more drop to 83.xx since the 84.xx is breach quitw easy. And the only thing that can stop this is the japan gov intervention.
The govt is saying that they will not intervene....but of course they will say that whether they intend to or not!!

How low can it go?......million dollar question
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,866
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:24am Aug 24, 2010 3:24am
look at yen go. 84.3 now.
  • #17,867
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:29am Aug 24, 2010 3:29am
Quoting realjumper
The govt is saying that they will not intervene....but of course they will say that whether they intend to or not!!

How low can it go?......million dollar question
I believe intervention will be done quietly.
  • #17,868
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:34am Aug 24, 2010 3:34am
Godzilla win against Rambo.. USD / JPY Low 84.14
  • #17,869
  • Aug 24, 2010 4:03am Aug 24, 2010 4:03am
Quoting yeri
How low this pair will go?i read some news at bloomberg a few week ago, and many news predict that this pair will drop to 80.xx. I can not believe that now the usd/jpy break the 84.50 i belive there will be more drop to 83.xx since the 84.xx is breach quitw easy. And the only thing that can stop this is the japan gov intervention.
Aug 24 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Tuesday recent currency moves are clearly one-sided and that disorderly moves can be harmful to the stability of the economy and the financial system.
Noda, speaking to reporters, declined to comment on the chance of currency intervention. (Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Michael Watson)
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,870
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:44am Aug 24, 2010 5:44am
This divergence has been going on for quite some time....it's worth revisiting though...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpdiv.jpg Size: 139 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,871
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:47am Aug 24, 2010 5:47am
Quoting realjumper
It's a question of can we afford super fast internet? In NZ it's ok, but nothing like Japan has. But 4 million people cannot afford the internet such as Japan's millions can afford. It's possibly the same with Aussie internet vs Europe??

Not sure about the price and so forth but the internet is fast enough, I have 24Mbs here now... actually it is only 8mbs but thats good enough

the problem comes to the actual data transfered... which shapes the line which is sooooo 80's

But that might have something to do with the price as well, as everything...

peace
  • #17,872
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:49am Aug 24, 2010 5:49am
Quoting MisterTrader
Aug 24 (Reuters) - Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said on Tuesday recent currency moves are clearly one-sided and that disorderly moves can be harmful to the stability of the economy and the financial system.
Noda, speaking to reporters, declined to comment on the chance of currency intervention. (Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Michael Watson)
London desk rumores BOJ intervening...
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,873
  • Aug 24, 2010 5:49am Aug 24, 2010 5:49am
Hey guys,
I've been lurking around this thread during the past two weeks or so to get a quick update on any relevant news on JPY intervention. I'm too lazy to scan all fin-news websites so I just pop in every once in a while. I haven't got a whole lot to say about the possible intervention, but I read something interesting a few days ago that I thought was worth sharing, I've attached the PDF.

Cheers.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 5. What Happens When China Stops Playing the Music.pdf   95 KB | 450 downloads
If you don't risk, you don't ever have to lose.
  • #17,874
  • Aug 24, 2010 6:10am Aug 24, 2010 6:10am
Japan’s Prime Minister Naoto Kan said “steep currency moves are undesirable” as the yen’s climb to a 15-year high prompted the country’s top labor leader to urge joint action from the Group of Seven countries.
“I want to closely monitor” the foreign exchange market, Kan told reporters in Tokyo today. He spoke after meeting with Nobuaki Koga, head of the Japanese Trade Union Federation, who said he told the prime minister that G-7 finance ministers and central bankers should coordinate action to stabilize the yen.

Policymakers are under pressure to protect Japan’s fragile economic recovery as the currency’s surge threatens to undermine export earnings and deepen deflation. Kan spoke yesterday with Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa about the situation without discussing whether to intervene in foreign exchange markets.

The yen today appreciated as high as 84.16 per dollar, the strongest since June 18, 1995. It also surged to an eight-year high against the euro. Japanese stocks tumbled, dragging the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to its lowest close since May 2009. The gauge is more than 20 percent below its 18-month high on April 5, which some analysts define as entering a bear market.

“The BOJ will be pressured to do something as stocks keep falling and the yen continues to gain,” said Tatsushi Shikano, a senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The situation is getting urgent.”

Last Intervention

Japan hasn’t intervened in the currency market since March 2004, when the yen was around 109 per dollar. The Bank of Japan, acting on behest of the Ministry of Finance, sold 14.8 trillion yen ($175 billion) in the first three months of 2004, after record sales of 20.4 trillion yen in 2003.
The central bank is still assessing the economic effect of the yen’s rise, according to three people familiar with the matter, an indication it has no immediate plans to ease monetary policy. Figures this week showed economic growth slowed in the second quarter.

Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda today said recent currency movements have “clearly” been one-sided.

“Excessive and disorderly movements in the currency market can have a negative impact on the stability of the economy,” Noda told reporters.
Kan will meet with business leaders tomorrow at 4 p.m. discuss the yen’s impact on the economy.

To contact the reporter on this story: Takashi Hirokawa in Tokyo at [color=#0033cc][email protected][/color]

Source
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,875
  • Aug 24, 2010 6:16am Aug 24, 2010 6:16am
We are towards the end of the month and there will be more greenback selling from the Japanese exporters to bring home Yen. I am afraid a low 84 to stick for sometime.
  • #17,876
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:32am Aug 24, 2010 7:32am
Quoting mfoste1
uj keeps sliding.......all this buying in this range is a trap, its only covering....they are trying to get weaker shorts out of their positions. Yen longs will keep buying and drive this lower until BOJ comes in....


if you are trying to long this pair, STAY OUT OF THE WAY....equities markets are losing support, bad housing data could send this into capitulation.....BOJ will not be there to rescue longs. A bottom is not in sight.....
  • #17,877
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:43am Aug 24, 2010 7:43am
Quoting realjumper
Different day....same rhetoric...lol...
Last print 83.71. Seems, BOJ gives a sh1t about exporters anymore...Well, stupidity has to be paid for...
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,878
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:44am Aug 24, 2010 7:44am
Quoting mfoste1
if you are trying to long this pair, STAY OUT OF THE WAY....equities markets are losing support, bad housing data could send this into capitulation.....BOJ will not be there to rescue longs. A bottom is not in sight.....
Stay out of the way ? You are not short ?
________________________________ Errare humanum est
  • #17,879
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:45am Aug 24, 2010 7:45am
Quoting MisterTrader
Last print 83.71. Seems, BOJ gives a sh1t about exporters anymore...Well, stupidity has to be paid for...
"Japanese exporters have been very heavy sellers of dollars today after failing to hedge exposures at higher levels. The selling has reached near-panic proportions, traders say."

forexlive
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #17,880
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:48am Aug 24, 2010 7:48am
Quoting MisterTrader
Stay out of the way ? You are not short ?

no im not short, I couldn't get a good entry........IMO there is no safe trade on this pair atm. Remember, cash is the safest position.
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