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EURUSD

  • #284,901
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:08am Aug 23, 2010 11:08am
Any suggestion about EUR/CHF?It's time to move up?
  • #284,902
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:10am Aug 23, 2010 11:10am
Quoting wannaberich
EU goes down and so does UJ. are u looking for a reversal of that correlation? logical should be the opposite, right?
its a cluster.. wait for the move.. so you dont get chopped up. im long uj and short eu.. depends on what the market thinks not what it think. the chf wants to go to the moon and bankrupt the swiss.. it usually euro positive... but the little swiss boy is pointing his finger saying "the king has no clothes"
people in the ez with a swiss mortgage will pay more for their home. so it will tighten cash.. but what happens if they dont pay? its a cluster.. this is huge..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,903
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:11am Aug 23, 2010 11:11am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #284,904
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:13am Aug 23, 2010 11:13am
Quoting gatorinla
one of the most important things posted here today. tick tock... wtf is comming
Thanks. Good stuff
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #284,905
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:29am Aug 23, 2010 11:29am
I've started trading EURUSD last week. My trading system automatically defines all entries/exits, so there's no room for me to try predicting what the price will do next, but I'm enjoying learning TA anyways. In that regard, I really like this forum. There are some very knowledgeable traders who share their TA views on the market here. Thanks for sharing guys.

Today was slow, but I'm currently long @ 12661. Let's see how this plays out...

Green Pips all
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #284,906
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:35am Aug 23, 2010 11:35am
Gator, u seem to have a pretty good handle on macro economics. Just curious, which country do you think is doing the best financially these days? Not which currency, but which country... Germany? Australia?
  • #284,907
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:35am Aug 23, 2010 11:35am
Quoting gatorinla
yes
i am with u but what is ur first taget??
  • #284,908
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:37am Aug 23, 2010 11:37am
This pair should start dropping down in a few or otherwise there will be full retrace up to ~1.2720-5.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #284,909
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:40am Aug 23, 2010 11:40am
This is wave 5 down........no forecast without prediction....

Wave 5 equals wave 1 USUALLY elliott rules and sometimes even in time....

Ofcourse wave 5 also breaks down into 5 waves......fractals...

Now here is the ART I THINK......if you measure it's equality in time it overlaps a major fibonacci time zone and you see a perfect picture....

If you use fibo tool to measure 5 waves of wave 1 ( i will show in pics) and move tool down to forecast movement of wave 5 which is usually travelling the same distance as wave 1 you can predict the major turning points in yes now longterm trend down.....so soon we turn up and probably for rest of this week because we are in the zone of completion of wave 1

the art as I said is if you expand any fibo tool to fullfill the 5 waves....(simply from ultimate high to low in pattern or trend) you usually get wave 1 ending at 38% of total move ,... I didn't show that in pic but I can if interested) actually you can see it in the bigger pattern with fibo overlayed on it ...wave 1 or first major turning point was at 38%......fractals repeat
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fib time relations5.gif Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: fib time relations6.gif Size: 66 KB
  • #284,910
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:43am Aug 23, 2010 11:43am
Quoting Hdkr
Gator, u seem to have a pretty good handle on macro economics. Just curious, which country do you think is doing the best financially these days? Not which currency, but which country... Germany? Australia?
long term
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,911
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:44am Aug 23, 2010 11:44am
Quoting egymedo
i am with u but what is ur first taget??
i dont have one.. i am not scalping.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,912
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:54am Aug 23, 2010 11:54am
Quoting gatorinla
long term
I've heard that Australia was the only major country not effected by the US mortgage/derivitives crisis. Kinda hard to believe. Any truth to that, you think?
  • #284,913
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:55am Aug 23, 2010 11:55am
Quoting grandpost
This is wave 5 down........no forecast without prediction....

Wave 5 equals wave 1 USUALLY elliott rules and sometimes even in time....
This chart looks like a shirt I used to have.
  • #284,914
  • Aug 23, 2010 12:01pm Aug 23, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
one of the most important things posted here today. tick tock... wtf is comming
very interesting article. the swiss are stuck. on one hand all these loans are an effective massive short position on the chf so indeed the snb could create chf in the same amount. on the hand the sheer amount of it and the risks attached to it means that the snb has effectively limited power. what if all these germans pissed off with the greeks change some of their economies in chf ? what if 10 % of the loans in chf get changed in euros or other currencies cause the chf rises too much ? that means more than the actual number of chf in circulation in banknotes. this could create tremendous shock to the real economy. anything less than 1.5 chf for an euro is criminal for the swiss economy which has higher costs that germany and austria...
16 chf a sandwhich in the swiss alps is not something one could deal with and think about coming back.
concerning the loans in weaker ee states made in chf. here is the click. many people in ee made loans in chf to buy assets or make investments. some of these have turned soar. but most of the businesses in eastern europe including renting houses is done in euros at a flexible rate and paid in local currency. so if you buy an appart in chf in budapest or bucharest you would probably rent it in euros and still struggle with the chf appreciation (from 1.5 to 1.35 in the last years). but the austrians servicing their debt in euros would still have the same problem. still eastern europeans could make local deposits in their local currencies at up to 10 % interest and cover some of the losses . this is why i believe for the swiss is not the amount of loans standing in eastern europe that is at risk of being changed in other currencies but the much larger amount to be found in western europe
Andreyou
  • #284,915
  • Aug 23, 2010 12:02pm Aug 23, 2010 12:02pm
80/85 previous support...being tested
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 1.gif Size: 22 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #284,916
  • Aug 23, 2010 12:04pm Aug 23, 2010 12:04pm
Hi,

I think for the short term, in the Asian session, the pair might go towards 1.2580m because the resistance of 1.2700 seams hard to break and it looks like there is more pressure to the lower side.

On the other hand, my indicators shows the 4hrs and Daily are exhausted as for the down movement and are preparing to recover in the other side.

So, considering also the Home Sales tomorrow, 24 august, do you think it might rise again for some time above 1.24 towards 1.28 and more?
  • #284,917
  • Aug 23, 2010 12:05pm Aug 23, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting andreypu
very interesting article. the swiss are stuck. on one hand all these loans are an effective massive short position on the chf so indeed the snb could create chf in the same amount. on the hand the sheer amount of it and the risks attached to it means that the snb has effectively limited power. what if all these germans pissed off with the greeks change some of their economies in chf ? what if 10 % of the loans in chf get changed in euros or other currencies cause the chf rises too much ? that means more than the actual number of chf in circulation...
the whole thing really is a ticking time bomb....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #284,918
  • Aug 23, 2010 12:07pm Aug 23, 2010 12:07pm
How will this break?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Wedge1.PNG Size: 28 KB
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #284,919
  • Aug 23, 2010 12:12pm Aug 23, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting andreypu
very interesting article....
its not a good situation... chf can pull the euro to the moon.. then they both are in trouble. even the mighty Germany. a swiss banking crises will just spread to a cripple ez one. a couple of us spoke about this months back (mmccormic). remember the 2.30$ gbp...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,920
  • Aug 23, 2010 12:18pm Aug 23, 2010 12:18pm


Quoting gatorinla
its a cluster.. wait for the move.. so you dont get chopped up. im long uj and short eu.. depends on what the market thinks not what it think. the chf wants to go to the moon and bankrupt the swiss.. it usually euro positive... but the little swiss boy is pointing his finger saying "the king has no clothes"
people in the ez with a swiss mortgage will pay more for their home. so it will tighten cash.. but what happens if they dont pay? its a cluster.. this is huge..
dreams do come true.
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