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  • #284,541
  • Aug 22, 2010 7:38pm Aug 22, 2010 7:38pm
Quoting Faller
Looking for insight.....

When you say it will decouple verses commodities......you mean that whatever affect commoditiy prices had on the Euro before will be null.....for instance - I watch oil and the Euro.....as oil moves up the Euro also moves since oil is priced in US dollars the Euro moves with it to adjust for pricing (or I may be totally wrong but that is what I understand) - so I was just wondering if this correlation that I see.....you are suggesting will be broken.....

Thanks for any response you may have to offer....
euro rode the coattails of commodities to 1.6... with much u.s. help. well the u.s. cant cut much below 0-1/4 %...at least 1 of the 3 things needed for a strong currency.. strong banking, strong manufacturing or commodities. banking is questionable. manufacturing is slipping in market share. commodities are null.
much is being made of German pmi. normally a good sign. not a good sign if other members are reporting negatives. the ones reporting negatives were the reason for the little banking crises that lead to the stress test. nothing has changed. they just move the shells around. the greater the difference between those making money and those losing. the greater the chance for failure. the ones whose gdp has shrunken have also the added cost of higher % on bond sales. the ball is already rolling. with stress test requirements ez banks will have less cash to manipulate with..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,542
  • Aug 22, 2010 7:40pm Aug 22, 2010 7:40pm
with stress test requirements ez banks will have less cash to manipulate with..[/quote]


Thank you....

Faller
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #284,543
  • Aug 22, 2010 7:45pm Aug 22, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting Faller
with stress test requirements ez banks will have less cash to manipulate with..

Thank you....

Faller[/quote]
it also tightens liquidity.. so things may happen extremely fast.. ecb isn't set up to do things fast.. things can accelerate before they do.
usd sucks too... but its a comparable measurement that counts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,544
  • Aug 22, 2010 8:05pm Aug 22, 2010 8:05pm
Lol..I am almost concerned that so many people are bearish the EUR/USD. I am as well with initial target 1.25 and then 1.22. But I guess even though 90% of traders lose their money. It may not necessarily be because they don't know the medium term trend of the currency. But that they have poor management, poor system in place, or failure to strictly follow their system. They may know the currency is going a direction but they don't know the best way to profit on it.
  • #284,545
  • Aug 22, 2010 8:21pm Aug 22, 2010 8:21pm
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  • #284,546
  • Aug 22, 2010 8:25pm Aug 22, 2010 8:25pm
Quoting Maxsmart
Lol..I am almost concerned that so many people are bearish the EUR/USD. I am as well with initial target 1.25 and then 1.22. But I guess even though 90% of traders lose their money. It may not necessarily be because they don't know the medium term trend of the currency. But that they have poor management, poor system in place, or failure to strictly follow their system. They may know the currency is going a direction but they don't know the best way to profit on it.

Even in a good trending market good or bad Entries are playing a major role... also the biggest drops happens when it's heavilly "oversold".
  • #284,547
  • Aug 22, 2010 8:31pm Aug 22, 2010 8:31pm
The downtrend of EURO begins fully last week. The challenge of many a trader is how to take profit. If for instance I intend using 0.5 to place trade and I am targetting 200pip, normally, I will split in into 0.1 in five places... I will close 3 of the trades at 100pip each leaving the remaining two open. I can pick the fouth position at 150pip... With these, I cannot lose the trade.

Watch out for 1.2688, it will CONFIRM the downtrend on EURO!
  • #284,548
  • Aug 22, 2010 8:42pm Aug 22, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting enterfx
Even in a good trending market good or bad Entries are playing a major role... also the biggest drops happens when it's heavilly "oversold".
Well, after a big move (drop or panic move) Stochs or any is bad indicator. Pair see further weakness because there are no buyers in that case unless there is a known major support.

In these cases bottom picking works if you know how to benefit from temporary bottoms when counter-trading.

There is some watching at other pairs to find optimal entries.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #284,549
  • Aug 22, 2010 8:57pm Aug 22, 2010 8:57pm
2720 will be a nice short opp. Later!
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #284,550
  • Edited 11:58pm Aug 22, 2010 8:59pm | Edited 11:58pm
Quoting djforex
The downtrend of EURO begins fully last week. The challenge of many a trader is how to take profit. If for instance I intend using 0.5 to place trade and I am targetting 200pip, normally, I will split in into 0.1 in five places... I will close 3 of the trades at 100pip each leaving the remaining two open. I can pick the fouth position at 150pip... With these, I cannot lose the trade.

Watch out for 1.2688, it will CONFIRM the downtrend on EURO!
The downtrend in euro resumed back when the eu crossed the middle bb on the daily as in my previous post. Have a good day.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #284,551
  • Aug 22, 2010 9:04pm Aug 22, 2010 9:04pm
Quoting tonyo524
2720 will be a nice short opp. Later!
Watch AU if it retraces fully, then not a good short yet.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #284,552
  • Aug 22, 2010 9:38pm Aug 22, 2010 9:38pm
Quoting Z3iz3i
Watch AU if it retraces fully, then not a good short yet.
its been one for me for while now. kiwi too
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,553
  • Aug 22, 2010 9:46pm Aug 22, 2010 9:46pm
Quoting Maxsmart
Lol..I am almost concerned that so many people are bearish the EUR/USD. I am as well with initial target 1.25 and then 1.22. But I guess even though 90% of traders lose their money. It may not necessarily be because they don't know the medium term trend of the currency. But that they have poor management, poor system in place, or failure to strictly follow their system. They may know the currency is going a direction but they don't know the best way to profit on it.
thats what makes a market.. half buyers half sellers. bad mm makes 95 % losers.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,554
  • Aug 22, 2010 9:54pm Aug 22, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting tonyo524
2720 will be a nice short opp. Later!
What is your time frame on that short?? Still holding up pretty good....charts showing stength as stoch are turning down but PA is still staying up......just wondering. Currently I am not in any positions with Eruo....but I am long OIL because of the Iran Nuke Reactor.......and of course chart reading etc.......both go hand in hand....I should say....long oil from 73.85 at 20:30 - target.....75.00 SL 73.75
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #284,555
  • Edited 10:58pm Aug 22, 2010 9:57pm | Edited 10:58pm
We could be looking at 2/300 point drop starting any minute. Look at the 15 minute wedge? Possibly 2544 still calculating the bottom. If I'm right it'll bounce at 2686 (2706) re enter short at 2715 Downside target 2395
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #284,556
  • Aug 22, 2010 10:01pm Aug 22, 2010 10:01pm
Quoting suthmo
We could be looking at 2/300 point drop starting any minute. Look at the 15 minute wedge? Possibly 2544 still calculating the bottom.
appreciate that - I'm all in short. Goshdoggit I don't know how I'm gonna spend all that money!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #284,557
  • Aug 22, 2010 10:03pm Aug 22, 2010 10:03pm
Quoting suthmo
We could be looking at 2/300 point drop starting any minute. Look at the 15 minute wedge? Possibly 2544 still calculating the bottom.
I have some doubts about "any minute" But I agree a short is in order. My guess is probably happening around london open.
  • #284,558
  • Aug 22, 2010 10:03pm Aug 22, 2010 10:03pm
Quoting suthmo
We could be looking at 2/300 point drop starting any minute. Look at the 15 minute wedge? Possibly 2544 still calculating the bottom.

look @ aud/chf......
  • #284,559
  • Aug 22, 2010 10:04pm Aug 22, 2010 10:04pm
Quoting suthmo
We could be looking at 2/300 point drop starting any minute. Look at the 15 minute wedge? Possibly 2544 still calculating the bottom.

When I look at the wedge....I also look at how far the PA pulls back into the lower part of the wedge....if PA only retraces half way or less.....I look for a continuation up.....just a pattern that I have found to be useful for me......not that I am always correct....if PA goes below .2688 I believe you are correct with the drop....if it holds....it should move up and out of the wedge...just my thoughts.
I don't trust any move - when you have profit...take it.
  • #284,560
  • Aug 22, 2010 10:23pm Aug 22, 2010 10:23pm
i think afta all said and done, the EURUSD market'll go on the buy in the long run pending the news time release at 7am GMT
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