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My Fibonacci trading system

  • #961
  • Aug 22, 2010 7:35am Aug 22, 2010 7:35am
Hi Chris,

you have plotted the exact chart i have posted. I am already in this trade. If you notice the stocks are already down again which means it will go and hit 61.8 again after market opens and then turn down for the huge sell that i am waiting for. Here i am plotting a weekly fibs again. Notice the fibs levels on this.

Chart 1. weekly chart with weekly fibs from high to low.
Chart 2. 15 minutes chart with weekly fibs.
chart 3 . 15 minute setup with fibs. Yellow fibs are weekly and red is the 15 minutes fib.

Tell me what do you notice....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly eurjpy.jpg Size: 183 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 15mins with weekly fibs.jpg Size: 179 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 15mins with weekly fibs and 15 mins fib.jpg Size: 199 KB
STING
  • #962
  • Aug 22, 2010 7:37am Aug 22, 2010 7:37am
Chris, let me know your thoughts on the charts that i have posted... then i will tell you if you have missed anything.
STING
  • #963
  • Aug 22, 2010 7:54am Aug 22, 2010 7:54am
Chris,

One more weekly chart for your analysis with auslanco's momentum and 5 sma.

Notice the candle from 2 weeks before. It had touched 5 sma high and came down to touch 5 sma low and more. after that last week had a nice retracement to touch 5 sma low. notice the v shaped momentum as the retracement and then down again. This week i am expecting a good sell off on yen crosses. It is quite contradicting the views of some seniors in FF forum but this is what i see. Everyone is expecting a bullish week from tomorrow but my charts tell me the opposite (following the trend).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly momentum with 5 sma.jpg Size: 185 KB
STING
  • #964
  • Aug 23, 2010 6:06am Aug 23, 2010 6:06am
Quoting stringfx
Hi Chris,

you have plotted the exact chart i have posted. I am already in this trade. If you notice the stocks are already down again which means it will go and hit 61.8 ...

Tell me what do you notice....
Hello, Stringfx,
I am disappointed that I missed the boat. When I reached office only to realized I forgot to short early in the morning before I go to work. Too bad. I do not quite understand your first chart on weekly fib plotted.

Are you using EA to automate your trades? You sell 3 lot together or set stop sell?

Regards
chrisyeap
  • #965
  • Aug 23, 2010 6:08am Aug 23, 2010 6:08am
Quoting stringfx
Chris,

One more weekly chart for your analysis with auslanco's momentum and 5 sma.

Notice the candle from 2 weeks before. It had touched 5 sma high and came ...
I am completely out on this strategy Have not learn up to this stage.
As for the Yen pairs to long, I guess Japan is going to intervene their currency by buying Dollar bond or something?

Regards
chrisyeap
  • #966
  • Aug 23, 2010 6:23am Aug 23, 2010 6:23am
Hi StringFX,

The setup valid for AudJpy? It is also a gap trade though. At least can take profit at price 76.59.

Regards
Chrisyeap
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.jpg Size: 115 KB
  • #967
  • Aug 23, 2010 10:39am Aug 23, 2010 10:39am
Stingfx
cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej final.jpg Size: 120 KB
  • #968
  • Aug 23, 2010 11:33pm Aug 23, 2010 11:33pm
Chris,

As posted before, all TP's hit including 161.8. THe weekly fibs which i showed before has also hit 0% at 107.31. Now this is a major support area. The candle has closed above weekly low and now can go up considerably as a retracement to the next resistance level 107.78. THe momentum on weekly,daily and monthly are all down so if a buy is taken that will be counter trend. Best to wait for G7 confirmation on 15 minutes.
Here is a chart with TPs being hit.

Hope you got the AJ trade that you were long on.
Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart10.jpg Size: 200 KB
STING
  • #969
  • Aug 24, 2010 3:42am Aug 24, 2010 3:42am
Hi Folks,

Great day for bears and continuing...
This chart is not the perfect setup as stated before. Notice that eur has not touched -1 yet but yen is way over +1. We have the fractal confirmation so i drew my fibs and will be putting market orders from 50% and 61.8% for another sell off to weekly S3 which is 132.8 expansion for this move. 105.61 is the target. Good trading to all . SL is above weekly S2 107.30

Sting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart12.jpg Size: 169 KB
STING
  • #970
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:37am Aug 24, 2010 7:37am
Folks,
don't you just love this system. 105.61 tp hit. Done trading for the day. will pop in in the middle of US session. With usd/yen such low, Dow will be opening a lot down which can take the yen crosses even lower. probably see a retracement until NYSE opens and then bang down again..
Happy trading!!
STING
  • #971
  • Aug 24, 2010 7:50am Aug 24, 2010 7:50am
Quoting stringfx
Folks,
don't you just love this system. 105.61 tp hit. Done trading for the day. will pop in in the middle of US session. With usd/yen such low, Dow will be opening a lot down which can take the yen crosses even lower. probably see a retracement until NYSE opens and then bang down again..
Happy trading!!
nice one Stringfx
  • #972
  • Aug 24, 2010 10:55pm Aug 24, 2010 10:55pm
Thanks freedom, hope you made some nice pips as well.

TOday does not look to be a good day for trading. We have a longer term trend down and a daily trend showing up. Can't take any buys as we can get into trouble. I will wait for G7 to give me a bearish signal for any trades today. All the daily momentum is up and all weekly momentum shows down. Better to stay away from this contradictive cycles. If anyone is in any trade, please post your charts with reasons for trade so that we can all learn from it.

My momentum charts attached.

Regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy daily.jpg Size: 135 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy weekly.jpg Size: 152 KB
STING
  • #973
  • Aug 24, 2010 11:13pm Aug 24, 2010 11:13pm
Quoting stringfx
1) G7 indicator should cross between +1 and -1. and then go on to touch +1 and -1 .
2) draw fibs of the previous 15 minutes swing not less than 50 pips. Use fractals to indicate swings.
3) DO not change SL. keep it just above 76.4 fib + spread +1.
4) Dont worry about economic news but follow the trend on higher timeframes.
5)Try not to trade when price is near weekly pivots or support and resistance.

Good trading to all.
One post states not less than 50 pips between swings and another states no less than 70 pips. Which min distance do you use?
  • #974
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:07am Aug 25, 2010 4:07am
BJ1,
Personally i trade anything above 50 pips. The post which says 70 pips is by the originator of this thread (WJQ). He insists on 70 pips minimum which is better and less riskier. Hope i am clear now. Sorry about that confusion.

Sting
STING
  • #975
  • Aug 25, 2010 4:23am Aug 25, 2010 4:23am
eg. Eur/jpy
If eur touches -1 and jpy touches +1, ideally a trade is valid if it's more than 50 pips but in some cases when you draw the vertical line which indicates the reaching of +1 and -1 after the crossover of the pair, you tend to get the fractal before the vertical line in which case, i would avoid taking that trade as you will be drawing the fibs before the pair hits +1 and -1 on G7. Hope this is useful for all the traders.

The fractal has to appear after the currencies has established the trend with G7.

I have an example chart here for you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart4.jpg Size: 174 KB
STING
  • #976
  • Aug 25, 2010 10:02am Aug 25, 2010 10:02am
Quoting stringfx
eg. Eur/jpy
If eur touches -1 and jpy touches +1, ideally a trade is valid if it's more than 50 pips but in some cases when you draw the vertical line which indicates the reaching of +1 and -1 after the crossover of the pair, you tend to get the fractal before the vertical line in which case, i would avoid taking that trade as you will be drawing the fibs before the pair hits +1 and -1 on G7. Hope this is useful for all the traders.

The fractal has to appear after the currencies has established the trend with G7.

I have an example chart here...
That is another question I had. What happens if the fractal appears on the same candle you have drawn the vertical line? I saw that last night. Do you still avoid it? Also, how do you use the 200ema to filter trades? If the weekly trend is down, do you only look for short set-ups?
  • #977
  • Aug 25, 2010 11:51am Aug 25, 2010 11:51am
Really one of the best system here in ff that has put money in my pocket. Very easy and profitable. To me the beauty of this system lies in the small risk and big profit.
Currently am no longer trading due to my system. Hope to start soon when i get my system fixed.
Cheers!
it is better to miss than to loss pips
  • #978
  • Aug 25, 2010 12:34pm Aug 25, 2010 12:34pm
BJ1,

Can you please post a chart with the fractal on the vertical line. It could be due to the various brokers that we trade but i didn't notice the scenario that you mentioned the previous night. But to answer your question, ideally there should be a couple of 15M candles after the vertical line is drawn and before the next fractal. I guess we could take that trade as well but i need to see your chart for further analysis. I am also still learning and fine tuning this method to a no loss perfect system.

200 ema is a great support or resistance on any time frame. (that's what i have personally seen in the last many years of my trading experience.) I just use it as a barrier. for instance if i am looking for a 161.8 TP and 200 ema is before this fib level, i reduce the TP to 200 ema level as there is a good possibility of a retrace from this EMA.

I am weekly guy. On every monday morning, i record the momentum for the week. We can be quite sure of the weekly trend by monday evening. In any case if monday opens with all weekly momentums down, then i will be short biased for the entire week and will not think of a buy. I consider Weekly S1,S2,S3,R1,R2 and R3 as the most important S&R levels even more than the monthly S&R levels.

If you check my morning post, I mentioned that it is going to be dirty day for trading. If anyone traded this method today, it would have been disastrous. Only scalps were possible.

Regards
STING
  • #979
  • Aug 25, 2010 9:43pm Aug 25, 2010 9:43pm
Quoting stringfx
BJ1,

Can you please post a chart with the fractal on the vertical line.
I've posted an example of what I mean. I guess I noticed this when backtesting b/c it's a setup from July. Also, when G7 has a cross of the +1 and -1 and we get a down fractal fractal where the swing is less than 50 pips, do you wait for price to move further down until the distance is at least 50 pips and then draw the fibs? OR do you just wait for a brand new setup of G7 crossing +1 and -1, followed by the fractal, etc... ? Thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eyfibo.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #980
  • Aug 26, 2010 1:55am Aug 26, 2010 1:55am
BJ1,
The example you have stated is a valid trade. Notice that eur has not only touched +1 it's way over the +1 and yen has touched -1 later at the fractal point. ideally i wud draw the vertical line one candle before the fractal and draw the fibs from the fractal. The distance is also over 70 pips.

The only thing i wud consider will be the general trend of the week and day before i take the trade. Hope this helps.

Regards
STING
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