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  • #284,441
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:35pm Aug 20, 2010 3:35pm
Quoting SaviorSix
LOL - we seem to always be in this "mofu" zone
look harder
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,442
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:40pm Aug 20, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting jackdan
Would any here dare to make a forecast on eurchf next week?

We have the lowest ever close on on a candle today...


Will it rebound?
the big question is will euro decouple from commodities and other currencies comparable to the usd.. i got a i cup and handle that says it will slip some. just in time for the gd2. i got the 100 sma kissing the 200sma daily.. on the s.p
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,443
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:40pm Aug 20, 2010 3:40pm
Looking at the weekly close technically, I would like to share my next week open with the others here. The way I see it is more bearish than bullish due to the following:
1- Break of uptrend channel only today during Europe session, which may indicate that the open n Monday on Asian session will be to downside (if no major news during the weekend).

2- Break of major support at 2730. This happened to be 50 SMA on daily chart, which make this close more negative.

3- The fact the pair actually broke 2700 today.

4- Pair completed the formation of H&S, with neck line at 2730.

In my limited view, the only way this pair change its direction is by breaking 2730 and closing above it on HR1 chart (trust it more than smaller time frame charts).

Fundamentally, Monday will bring a series of eur PMI numbers, I am not sure if they are going to change the direction of this pair move, but by the time they come out, pair may have been lower than 2700 (maybe?)
If you feel there is something regarding this view, please let us share it here for the benefit of everyone.
Have a nice weekend
  • #284,444
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:43pm Aug 20, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
the big question is will euro decouple from commodities and other currencies comparable to the usd.. i got a i cup and handle that says it will slip some. just in time for the gd2

Do you expect SNB intervention as in the past?
  • #284,445
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:47pm Aug 20, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting hytham
Do you expect SNB intervention as in the past?

the only intervention they will do is dump part of the 12 billion euros that burned a hole in their pocket when they were trying to keep the franc from appreciating against the euro when it slid last 6 months......
  • #284,446
  • Aug 20, 2010 3:54pm Aug 20, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting hytham
Do you expect SNB intervention as in the past?
No i don't think so, the green numbers of yesterday tell me so, and also the fact they have been sellin eurusd today, this morning.

On the other side, there is no reason for the chf to be that strong. Only the safe haven thing, but this is not enought. i have the feeling it may go down and touch 1.3000 and then be rejected, but i don't know.... it can also plunge till 1.2650 as someone told me.

When the eurusd was at 1.60, some were also talking of 1.70 and 2.00....

But it end up making a double top.... and came back to "possible desapearance of the euro" (as so many were forecasting two month ago) ...


My question, could we see a dble bottom too on eurchf?
  • #284,447
  • Aug 20, 2010 4:02pm Aug 20, 2010 4:02pm
Quoting hytham
Do you expect SNB intervention as in the past?
dont know. does other cb have any marbles left? Those guys are not stupid. they see the true banking story. So will they bail out the ez?.. i don't know. Its a hard situation that they cant win. They cant buy euros forever.. When they do they are subsidizing anothers bad behavior. but doing nothing hurts too.. i dont have a clue..

have a good weekend

out
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #284,448
  • Aug 20, 2010 4:12pm Aug 20, 2010 4:12pm
next week monday

up a bit .. down a bit sideways abit more up ..bit down

have a good weekend

lots news next week .... I think now earnings season is done (this is all that has been holding up markets) all eyes will be on housing next week .
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #284,449
  • Aug 20, 2010 8:21pm Aug 20, 2010 8:21pm
Quoting ut2DaMax
Hi Everyone,

For those of you that like MurreyMath minus the lines to clutter the charts, try this modified version. Enjoy.

You can also change TextShift to 15 or 18 like this <> extern int text_shift = 18; from extern int text_shift = 0;
and it sets the visible text back from the last candle some more. Your choice .... I use 15 setting.

ut2
Ill check it out tomorrow thanx
  • #284,450
  • Aug 20, 2010 8:42pm Aug 20, 2010 8:42pm
When trades are not making sense sometimes here's a little reminder why, enjoy the weekend all.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...editorsPicks_3
  • #284,451
  • Aug 20, 2010 9:30pm Aug 20, 2010 9:30pm
Here is something else to brighten up your weekend...
  • #284,452
  • Aug 20, 2010 10:13pm Aug 20, 2010 10:13pm
[quote=maanawi;3948131]
http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1281817914 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1281817914
[ /quote]
8 pips far of the buy target for last week post, but my setup still holding as my view about 126680 to be the lowest levels to hold EU again in the bulls side.
any way .. on my weekly trends setup there a respect for the highlighted channel, so keep and eye on the H4 close below the level and the trend line of the weekly.
good luck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #284,453
  • Aug 20, 2010 10:17pm Aug 20, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting hytham
[color=black][font=Verdana]Looking at the weekly close technically, I would like to share my next week open with the others here....
I think the EURO PMI numbers will be very good. Germany's economy is booming and not only did their GDP largely beat expectations but expectations for future GDP has been increased by one full percent. The last PMI numbers were very good as well.

I am short the EUR/USD from 1.29 with my initial target at 1.25 and I am hoping as well that since we have broken below the neckline of the head and shoulders that lossess will accelerate and that we will reach 1.25 before Friday despite good numbers from the EUROZONE.

I am curious how traders will react to Fridays GDP data from the U.S. If the growth is below expectations it may serve as a catalyst for further dollar strength as investors seek safe haven assets and avoid risk. However, lower GDP could also present the case that the FED may increase further QE measures and could weaken the dollar on signs of a potential double dip in the U.S. that has not yet been evinced in the EUROZONE as they are still on track to exit QE measures.

If the growth is above expectations we may see the EURO strengthen as well as investors seek higher yielding assets on signs that we may avert a double dip recession.

I am afraid the dollar may be in a lose lose situation on Friday unless the data comes in just slightly soft or at expectations. So I would like to hit 1.25 before Friday. Enjoy the weekend.
  • #284,454
  • Aug 21, 2010 12:31am Aug 21, 2010 12:31am
Picked up 60 pips on the short from 1.2820 to 1.2760. You can tell I exitted early but 1 min PA didn't look favourable. Course then it shot down 70-80 pips but I'm not complaining

Bias is down for now so will keep taking shorts as they appear.
  • #284,455
  • Edited 4:00am Aug 21, 2010 12:57am | Edited 4:00am
Quoting scottyfromau
Picked up 60 pips on the short from 1.2820 to 1.2760. You can tell I exitted early but 1 min PA didn't look favourable. Course then it shot down 70-80 pips but I'm not complaining

Bias is down for now so will keep taking shorts as they appear.

Mate...1min looked unfavorable?
I have no idea how anyone could ever determine anything from a 1min TF through the noise.
I often enter on a 5min chart (minimum TF), but as soon as poss, I back off to at least a 30min/1H chart for some relative perspective on it. 'If' the trade permits, I back off to the 4H or Daily chart.
If I were you, I would at least try something along those lines.
There are good reasons why experienced traders always say to check and trade in the direction of the higher TF's.
Higher the better.
  • #284,456
  • Aug 21, 2010 1:36am Aug 21, 2010 1:36am
I've been gone for a week...still feels heavy on the daily. Enjoy the weekend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #284,457
  • Aug 21, 2010 6:44am Aug 21, 2010 6:44am
Quoting scottyfromau
Picked up 60 pips on the short from 1.2820 to 1.2760. You can tell I exitted early but 1 min PA didn't look favourable. Course then it shot down 70-80 pips but I'm not complaining

Bias is down for now so will keep taking shorts as they appear.
Great point! Thanks!
  • #284,458
  • Aug 21, 2010 7:31am Aug 21, 2010 7:31am
Quoting PayTheLimit
I've been gone for a week...still feels heavy on the daily. Enjoy the weekend
EU has been having trouble getting past 1.2700, although admittedly friday afternoons are slow and low volume, and made worse by the fact that this is August and that affects euro support to a greater extent. There is also strong resistance at 1.2730 area therefore may very well not be able to get past that.

On the downside, once it gets past eh 1.2650 area, there is moderate support around 1.2550 then it drops to 1.2250, which is a likely target for next week.
  • #284,459
  • Aug 21, 2010 10:14am Aug 21, 2010 10:14am
Hi! This is my first post on this forum!
I think we are finished the 4th wave and the 5th wave should begin with goals on 1.35 - then the impuls will be finished and I expect the down movement to new low.
Other view - now we are in wave 2 and we are correct the up movement to 61.8 fibo, so the wave should be end and wave 3 should start. + sp500 on the lower side of channels, 4H and Daily Stohastic in othersold zone.
  • #284,460
  • Aug 21, 2010 10:52am Aug 21, 2010 10:52am
http://www.economist.com/node/168466...urnfortheworse
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