Setebos' journal

Having spent quite some time around and after the moment finally came for me to start trading full time I will be posting here some past and still open trades, analysis, ideas and anything that may seem interesting at the moment.
The reason I don't do this in my personal blog is because I came to realize that I want to separate trading from personal life, otherwise emotions will surely kill both.
The purpose of this journal is for me to be able to look back and see what I did right, what I did wrong and eventually what could be improved. I tend to be very inconsistent with blogs and journals but hopefully I will keep the energy and desire to post here on a regular basis.
On another note - I do realize that this is a public forum but this thread is my personal journal and it follows a specific purpose. Anyone's welcome to drop in, ask questions, etc, but I will not tolerate smart asses or (which I finds very common around the FF) people coming here and behaving as if I owe them anything (knowledge, answers, etc).
Having that said here are a few ready answers for any newbies that may come by this thread:
- I do not use system, I try to approach and understand the market each and every day
- Market is ultimate, period
- I scale in and out (more rarely) - I do not advocate this, I simply do it
- I don't use any indicators other then eventually a MA
- I follow a large number of markets, some of them on multiple time frames. I think this is crucial for anyone who's looking to stay alive in this business on the long run - you need to understand that this is game of capital flows and emotions on a global level so if you want to be good in the game you need to know the rules.

This should be a fair start I think. The rest will come with time. Or not

Right, here we go. I tried to have the picture to explain it all, however I should add that due to some personal thingos last night I couldn't came to the screens in the morning and had to start working on it in the early afternoon.
The rest is in the screen shot. After I took the printshot the price moved south so I've added +0.5 to the initial position size. Getting a bit late so I might have to leave it with some protective orders and hit the bed already.

Edit: didn't like where majors are right now, I'm too sleepy and the damn thing is barely moving - decided to bring the pray home and go to bed.

Not much to add today really - was a pig all over and was lucky to get away with less then 1% drawdown. Need to put those emotions under control urgently. A few things I realized I missed looking after today:
- Landscape
- What the enemy is doing
- Preparation
- Plan
- Real time strategy management

I'm seriously thinking of not trading tomorrow for a number of reasons. We have a saying here that the morning is wiser then the evening so I will see how I feel tomorrow morning and make up my mind then.

First day of the week and the month - time to measure the landscape and see what the possible scenarios/possibilities are. I tend to follow both technical and macro economical studies so I will lay some thoughts on both fronts here.
On another note I don't like trading first/last days of the month for a number of reasons, so I will leave the action to develop itself and maybe place some trades in NY afternoon.
Since the season of the earning started markets have been playing weird with key interest focused in cable and YEN, while EUR is simply following. I had just prepared a chart of EU showing a possible correction scenario however the rushing NY volumes sent that straight to the trash sending the price above last week's top. I will have to wait for the rush to calm and re-evaluate the situation there.

Cable has been galloping north for quite some time already and it is getting to look very overextended to me to say the least. We are now very close to the key 1,60 level so I will be watching that one with extra caution.

The yen has been a major battlefield lately being the main funding currency for carry trades. The Japanese economy does not really give any signs of stable recovery so the old deflationary downtrend is still in play there.

On the fundamental front it seems things are finally calming down after the EU crisis and despite the parody the stress test results turned out to be markets are giving some value back to the old continent currencies. It is another story that risk aversion might be slowly returning to US as the US economy is far from indicating a sound recovery. Actually it's exactly the opposite - debt is piling and the only sector which managed to grow by any significant margin is (surprise, surprise) the Financial, where Wall Street is playing with taxpayers' money to add some green figures to the GDP results. Focus is slowly turning to employment issues again where it's now obvious to everyone and their dogs that the cooked statistics does not reflect the real situation. With the Dow stuck in no man's land again and worries of double dip arising again QE 2 might not be that far (or impossible as a lot of pundits bravely announced from the tube). Should that happen wait for the dollar to go to hell again as the printing press sends the weight of the debt spiral ahead in time for the generations to come.

Edit: Seems the tension in the middle east is rising again and what a surprise - GOLD exploded marking more then 1% for less then 1 hour.

Hi Setebos,

You seems to have so much to share and that i will be waiting keep it coming my friend

regards, be good and be safe.

dongsky

p.s. are you trading just 1 pair or you do crosses too?

Hey dongsky, thanks for dropping by
I haven't posted here for a while for a number of reasons but I do plan to keep it going.
So to answer your question - no, I trade anything that catches my eye with a strong bias to gold - that thing just ticks by the book when it's not heavily manipulated.
I am thinking of restarting the tradition of making an overview of the week that passed and build some scenarios for the week to come...something like a tactical overview, so to say

I don't see you around a lot lately - trading actively?

Best
S

I will be visiting your journal from time to time my friend and that's for sure.

yep i am actively trading and trying to focus as much as i could; though i was hit twice last week big time, i still managed to get some back last friday...

regards,

be good and be safe

Yeah, PA is ugly during summertime. Thank god August is coming to an end.

Regards
S

i am tuning in

Hey Mark, howzit goin man, long time no word, hope all is good
Did you see what happened to England at the WC? Poor bastards

Started making some analysis so couldn't resist to point out he obvious... it's so bearish that it makes me think there's something wrong with this chart, hah

All is well my friend, posting much lesser nowadays, can't fit in what's going on in FF for most part. Just silently stalking TAF and the jacko saga is interesting too .

eh...the brits ? haha nvr mind...

I see you went full time, all the best man, respect for being crazy enough to do that.

cheers

OK, finally accepted my err and took the hit. It's one of those sobering moments that make you wanna break your leg up your own ass for being such a stubborn moron.
Anyway, a lesson in humility and discipline is always welcome. And it's not nice but lessons always come with a price tag. I just paid for mine, lets hope I don't forger what I learned

I will be switching brokers so I will have a break from trading for a couple of days. Will also use the time for some analysis - both on markets and myself.

Hey Seetbos

Just wanna drop in to say Hi to a fellow Fti/AOW practioner

Wish u all the best on your new chosen path of a FULL time trader.

Will be following your journal


Dance Well
Sylar

Hey Sylar, thanx man, appreciate it, best of luck 2 u too

Rgrds
S

Going through my charts a few things worth mentioning:

USDJPY - this is just going to hell now. I can't begine to imagine what's going to happen to the Nikkei tomorrow (tonight). PA broke the bottom and is heading to check BoJ patience/commitment of the '94 bottom @ around 78. Whichever comes first. I personally don't think the BoJ will not be able to withstand it alone (just like what happend to the SNB earlier this year) and will probably try to wipe the bears with 1 or 2 big hits during low liquidity time zones, that's what I'd do in their place.
GBPUSD - Cable is back in the bear mood together with its fiber sister and I doubt that the 200DMA, which usually acts as a good support/resistance will slow things much.
USDCAD has been acting its own things for quite some time now agains all the fundamental data available. I got caught myself in the bear trap some time ago (and it hurt me bad) when news came out good for Canada, bad for the US and technically the bear momo was strong. Instead of going down big the damn thing shot itself forthe moon and is now challenging the 1,060 resistance which is to be observed with extra caution.
AUDUSD being a major funding currency keeps correlating strongly with the Dow and S&P so until we see any rise there (i.e. until Ben starts printing big time again or by any mirracle the US produces some good economic data) I will be ready for more and more bearish setups there.

There's plenty of bloodshed goin on in the Fx kingdom...

Lesson No.1 of AOW practioner.... Patience to wait for the opportune moment

While waiting for my capital to be transferred to my new old broker something weird struck me from the charts. The dollar is well known for its safe heaven status - examples are more then enough, take the rush after the Lehman collapse as a recent one. There is something new however, a sentiment that started forming during the last week or so since the US economy started printing bad data again - each time bad news come across we don't see the rush to the dollar even with Dow plunging. Which brings the question are people finally coming to loose their confidence in the greenbag myth? And what's going to happen to the dollar when Ben starts the printing press again ahead of the double dip threat?

Enclosed yesterday's and today's charts on EU. This ping-pong range game seems to have a crush for the shampoo formation (H&S) big time, LOL
I have a feeling that we will see a "buy on rumors sell on news" scenario today with the US Unemployment claims. The market will show. Dance time now, looks like a good shorting possibility, well see.

Edit: The 2720-30 level seems to be a preferred stop hunt zone. Looking to play the dealers game should that happen again. Easy pips, come to daddy.